Pakistan says inflation likely to remain within 4-5% range in August

People walk as they shop in a market in Karachi, Pakistan on April 19, 2023. (REUTERS/File)
Short Url
Updated 28 August 2025
Follow

Pakistan says inflation likely to remain within 4-5% range in August

  • Finance Division warns flood-related damages may add to fiscal pressures, disrupt food supplies
  • Stronger demand from trading partners, trade deal with US to boost exports, says Finance Division

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Finance Division said in its monthly economic outlook on Thursday that inflation for August is expected to remain within the 4-5% range, warning that flood-related damages may add fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies.

Pakistan’s Consumer Price (CPI) inflation was recorded at 4.1% year-on-year (YoY) in July 2025, compared to 3.2% in June 2025 and 11.1% in July 2024. Pakistan’s economy has shown signs of stabilization in recent months after securing a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout program in September 2024.

The Finance Division noted that the country’s economy entered FY26 with stable macroeconomic conditions and improved growth prospects, supported by a stronger external and fiscal position.

“However, flood-related damages may add fiscal pressures and disrupt food supplies in affected areas,” the report said. “Inflation is projected to remain within the range of 4-5% in August 2025.”

Devastating floods in Pakistan’s eastern Punjab province killed 17 people this week and inundated over 1,600 villages in the eastern province. Pakistani authorities were forced to evacuate over a million people to safer locations, as the country’s central disaster management authority warned that downstream floods are expected to cause destruction in southern Pakistan.

The report said a “favorable” global environment, stronger demand from trading partners, and Pakistan’s recent trade deal with the US are expected to boost exports.

The outlook said the government’s measures to facilitate investment, along with reforms to support private sector-led growth, easing inflation, and an “accommodative” monetary policy can help reinforce investors’ confidence.


Islamabad dismisses claims about paying up to 8 percent interest on foreign loans as ‘misleading’

Updated 22 February 2026
Follow

Islamabad dismisses claims about paying up to 8 percent interest on foreign loans as ‘misleading’

  • Pakistan has long relied on external loans to help bridge persistent gaps in public finances and foreign exchange reserves
  • Pakistan’s total external debt, liabilities stand at $138 billion at an overall average cost of around 4 percent, ministry says

KARACHI: Pakistan’s finance ministry on Sunday dismissed as “misleading” claims that the country is paying up to 8 percent interest on external loans, saying the overall average cost of external public debt is approximately 4 percent.

Pakistan has long relied on external loans to help bridge persistent gaps in public finances and foreign exchange reserves, driven largely by a narrow tax base, chronic trade deficits, rising debt-servicing costs and repeated balance-of-payments pressures.

Over the decades, successive governments have turned to multilateral and bilateral lenders, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, to support budgetary needs and shore up foreign exchange reserves.

The finance ministry on Sunday issued a clarification in response to a “recent press commentary” regarding the country’s external debt position and associated interest payments, and said the figures required contextual explanation to ensure accurate understanding of Pakistan’s external debt profile.

“Pakistan’s total external debt and liabilities currently stand at $138 billion. This figure, however, encompasses a broad range of obligations, including public and publicly guaranteed debt, debt of Public Sector Enterprises (both guaranteed and non-guaranteed), bank borrowings, private-sector external debt, and intercompany liabilities to direct investors. It is therefore important to distinguish this aggregate figure from External Public (Government) Debt, which amounts to approximately $92 billion,” it said.

“Of the total External Public Debt, nearly 75 percent comprises concessional and long-term financing obtained from multilateral institutions (excluding the IMF) and bilateral development partners. Only about 7 percent of this debt consists of commercial loans, while another 7 percent relates to long-term Eurobonds. In light of this composition, the claim that Pakistan is paying interest on external loans ‘up to 8 percent’ is misleading.

The overall average cost of External Public Debt is approximately 4 percent, reflecting the predominantly concessional nature of the borrowing portfolio.”

With respect to interest payments, public external debt interest outflows increased from $1.99 billion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 to $3.59 billion in FY2025, representing an increase of 80.4 percent, not 84 percent as reported. In absolute terms, interest payments rose by $1.60 billion over this period, not $1.67 billion, it said.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan’s records, Pakistan’s total debt servicing payments to specific creditors during the period under reference were as follows: the IMF received $1.50 billion, of which $580 million constituted interest; Naya Pakistan Certificates payments totaled $1.56 billion, including $94 million in interest; the Asian Development Bank received $1.54 billion, including $615 million in interest; the World Bank received $1.25 billion, including $419 million in interest; and external commercial loans amounted to nearly $3 billion, of which $327 million represented interest payments.

“While interest payments have increased in absolute terms, this rise cannot be attributed solely to an expansion in the debt stock,” the ministry said. “Although the overall debt stock has increased slightly since FY2022, the additional inflows have primarily originated from concessional multilateral sources and the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) under the ongoing IMF-supported program.”

Pakistan secured a $7 billion IMF bailout in Sept. 2024 as part of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s efforts to stabilize the South Asian economy that narrowly averted a default in 2023. The government has since been making efforts to boost trade and bring in foreign investment to consolidate recovery.

“It is also important to note that the increase in interest payments reflects prevailing global interest rate dynamics. In response to the inflation surge of 2021–22, the US Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate from 0.75-1.00 percent in May 2022 to 5.25–5.50 percent by July 2023. Although rates have since moderated to around 3.75 percent, they remain significantly higher than 2022 levels,” the finance ministry said.

“The government remains committed to prudent debt management, transparency, and the continued strengthening of Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability,” it added.