Gaza civilian death toll could be as high as 83%: Israeli data

Destroyed buildings in Gaza are visible, as the sun sets, from Israel, Aug. 21, 2025. (AFP)
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Updated 21 August 2025
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Gaza civilian death toll could be as high as 83%: Israeli data

  • Investigation finds 8,900 fighters killed by May out of more than 53,000 total casualties
  • Retired Israeli general: ‘Absolutely no connection between the numbers that are announced and what is actually happening’

LONDON: As many as 83 percent of Palestinian casualties in Gaza could be civilians, classified Israeli data suggests.

A joint investigation by The Guardian, Hebrew-language Local Call and the Israeli-Palestinian +972 Magazine found that Israeli officials had been able to name 8,900 people killed or “probably dead” in Gaza as members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad as of May this year.

At the time, the total death toll from the war was believed to be at least 53,000 people according to local authorities, meaning that just 17 percent of those identified were combatants.

The database used to assess combatant casualty figures is based on documents seized by the Israeli military in Gaza.
In total, 47,653 Palestinians are identified as being members of Hamas or Islamic Jihad, meaning that a little under 40,000 are believed to be still alive

The Israeli military also believes Gaza’s health authorities’ data on casualties to be reliable, Local Call reported, though these figures are likely to be an underestimate as thousands of people remain buried under rubble, and only bodies positively identified are counted.

Therese Pettersson of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program told The Guardian: “That proportion of civilians among those killed would be unusually high, particularly as it has been going on for such a long time.

“If you single out a particular city or battle in another conflict, you could find similar rates, but very rarely overall.”

She added that since 1989, UCDP had only identified the siege of Srebrenica, the Rwandan genocide and the 2022 siege of Mariupol as conflicts that saw civilian casualties outnumber combatants.

Previously, Israeli politicians have cited a far more balanced casualty rate, with some suggesting it could even be equal between combatants and civilians. Others have suggested in the past that 20,000 people killed in Gaza were militants.

This could be on account of collating members of the enclave’s civilian infrastructure or people with loose ties to fighters — such as police and politicians — with membership of militant groups, but it is also believed that civilians without ties to Islamic Jihad or Hamas are included in those tallies.

One source who spent time with the Israeli military in Gaza told The Guardian that “people are promoted to the rank of terrorist after their death,” adding: “If I had listened to the brigade, I would have come to the conclusion that we had killed 200 percent of Hamas operatives in the area.”

Retired Gen. Itzhak Brik, a former commander of Israel’s military colleges, told The Guardian that he had been told by former colleagues the numbers were inflated.
“There is absolutely no connection between the numbers that are announced and what is actually happening,” he said. “It is just one big bluff.”

Palestinian analyst Muhammad Shehada told the newspaper that by last December, the number of dead Hamas and Islamic Jihad members from their own data was around 6,500.

“Israel expands the boundaries so they can define every single person in Gaza as Hamas,” he said. “All of it is killing in the moment for tactical purposes that have nothing to do with extinguishing a threat.”

Moreover, the number of dead, and the disparity between civilian and combatant deaths, may have increased since May, with hunger now believed to be widespread due to a lack of food in Gaza, and an increase in the number of civilian deaths at aid distribution sites in the enclave.

The impending Israeli ground offensive in the north of Gaza will likely further widen this gap. So far, in excess of 62,000 people are believed to have been killed in the enclave.

Mary Kaldor, professor of global governance at the London School of Economics, said the nature of the Gaza conflict is also causing a disproportionate number of civilian casualties.

“In Gaza we are talking about a campaign of targeted assassinations, really, rather than battles, and they are carried out with no concern for civilians,” she added.

Comparing Gaza to recent conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Sudan, she said: “These are wars where the armed groups tend to avoid battle. They don’t want to fight each other, they want to control territory and they do that by killing civilians.

“Maybe that is the same with Israel, and this is a model of war (in Gaza) that is about dominating a population and controlling land. Maybe the objective always was forced displacement.”

Neta Crawford, professor of international relations at Oxford University, said tactics used by Israel mark a “worrisome” departure from previously established norms to protect civilians.

“They say they’re using the same kinds of procedures for civilian casualty estimation and mitigation as states like the United States. But if you look at these casualty rates, and their practices with the bombing and the destruction of civilian infrastructure, it is clear that they are not,” she said.

In a statement to The Guardian, the Israeli military said the figures published in the investigation “are incorrect.”


How Syria’s government responded to February’s floods 

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How Syria’s government responded to February’s floods 

  • Floodwaters battered fragile camps and infrastructure, exposing the vulnerability of millions still displaced by years of war
  • Interim authorities mobilized emergency efforts in Idlib and Latakia, evacuating communities and restoring key roads and bridges

LONDON: All Nour owned was washed away in a single stormy night at the Karamah displacement camp in northwest Syria’s Idlib province — a tent, a few pieces of furniture and some clothing.

She had already lost everything once before. Years earlier, fighting forced her family to flee their home in the countryside of Aleppo.

“When we fled our home in Aleppo back in 2014, I was only 13 and couldn’t even save a single doll,” said Nour, whose name has been changed at her request.

“Just as I couldn’t carry anything back then, I couldn’t carry anything when my home got flooded two weeks ago,” she said. “The neighbors told me to run quickly, and I had to save myself and my child.”

In early February, torrential rains swept through Idlib, Latakia and Hama, inundating camps, homes and farmland. Tents collapsed, crops were destroyed and lives were lost as thousands of already vulnerable families struggled through harsh winter conditions.

The flooding has become an early test of the interim government’s ability to respond to disasters, having come to power just over a year ago following more than a decade of civil war.

Flash flooding triggered by heavy rain on Feb. 7 hit Idlib province and northern Latakia, damaging at least 1,850 tents and destroying 149 within two days, according to the UN humanitarian office, OCHA.

Floodwaters reached at least 21 displacement sites, affecting about 5,300 people and submerging entire shelters.

The impact extended beyond camps. In Latakia’s Qastal Maaf district, at least 30 homes were damaged, while 47 houses were affected in the northwestern Idlib province.

The floods also claimed lives. In northern Latakia, two children were reportedly killed on Feb. 8 after being swept away by floodwaters in a rugged valley in the Jabal Al-Turkman area.

Syrian Arab Red Crescent volunteer Samiha Rakhamiya died while attempting to rescue stranded residents, while six other staff were injured when their vehicle slid into a valley en route to assist affected communities.

Infrastructure damage deepened the disruption. Two bridges linking about 15 villages in Jabal Al-Turkman collapsed, severing access between communities, state media reported.

One bridge over the Northern Great River connected the villages of Al-Sultran and Al-Sarraf. Residents now face journeys of more than two hours instead of minutes.

Officials said surging water levels, exceeding 450 cubic meters per second on Feb. 8, carried debris that clogged a dam and forced water to spill over, eroding surrounding land and blocking roads.

Mustafa Joulha, director of the northern district in Latakia, told state agency SANA that drainage systems were also overwhelmed, worsening flooding in nearby areas.

Authorities deployed emergency teams to clear debris, reopen roads and assess damage.

The floods also strained essential services in Idlib. Ain Al-Bayda hospital was forced out of service, with patients transferred to facilities in Jisr Al-Shughour and Idlib City.

In response, Syrian authorities and humanitarian organizations launched coordinated relief efforts.

An emergency committee was formed, and joint assessment missions surveyed affected camps on Feb. 8.

By Feb. 9, the Ministry of Emergency and Disaster Management said civil defense teams carried out search and rescue operations, evacuated residents from high-risk areas, and also prioritized drainage work and road rehabilitation to restore access.

Displacement shelters were opened near Kherbet Al-Jouz and in northern Latakia. Authorities also reported the availability of 1,500 housing units in Afrin and 100 in Latakia, while dozens of families were evacuated by Feb. 12 from six displacement camps in western Idlib.

Syria’s minister of emergency and disaster, Raed Al-Saleh, told SANA that 173 families were evacuated from camps in Idlib’s Badama and Khirbet Al-Jouz to temporary shelter centers.

In addition, emergency teams have conducted drainage operations, cleared culverts within the camps, reopened more than 25 roads and 30 water channels, and removed five earthen berms as part of preparations for further weather systems.

Aid agencies simultaneously coordinated with local authorities to deliver multi-sector assistance. Camp coordination, health, and shelter teams have been relocating the most affected households, repairing and replacing tents, and distributing essential supplies.

Despite the authorities’ rapid response, the scale of need remains immense as the nation has yet to recover from the devastation left by the civil war which erupted in 2011.

The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, estimates that 7.4 million people remain internally displaced in Syria, with the majority concentrated in the northwest. Camps are clustered along the Syria-Turkiye border, particularly in the Harim area and the Atma-Qah-Sarmada-Al-Dana belt.

Of the total internally displaced population, 5.2 million are estimated to be living outside formal displacement sites, according to the UNHCR.

Although more than 1 million people have returned to their hometowns since the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime on Dec. 8, 2024, many are still struggling to rebuild their lives.

Conditions in displacement camps are especially precarious. During aid distributions in Idlib, Medecins Sans Frontieres described shelters as “extremely fragile.” The organization’s logistics manager, Osama Joukhadar, said displaced people “are exposed to the cold, wind, and snow.”

“Every winter, families struggle just to survive,” he added in a Feb. 18 statement. “We are trying to provide basic support, small but essential help to assist families get through the cold months.”

For many, what began as temporary refuge in those camps has hardened into long-term uncertainty.

About 88 percent of shelter sites in Idlib are informal, self-settled camps, often built on private or agricultural land, according to the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

Residents say returning home is often impossible.

“All the camps around us are in very bad condition, but they do not have the ability to return to their hometowns,” said Hajem Al-Asaad, a displaced resident in the Harim Mountains.

“Even if you own land, you cannot live on barren land — you need a home,” he told MSF. “Our homes are destroyed. I need at least $500 to $1,000 just to make basic repairs.”

Humanitarian support has expanded alongside emergency response efforts. The Syrian government deployed mobile medical teams and ambulances across Idlib, and more than two tonnes of medicines and emergency supplies were delivered to local health authorities.

In Latakia, damaged infrastructure is gradually being restored. A key bridge connecting Atira and Kalaz in the province’s countryside has been rehabilitated, and road clearance projects are underway to help residents return, Syria’s Al-Ekhbariah TV reported on Feb. 19.

Yet even as aid reaches affected areas, the floods underscore a deeper vulnerability.

About 90 percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, according to UN estimates, and the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Index ranks Syria among the world’s most climate-vulnerable, with limited capacity to respond to environmental shocks.

In the first two months of 2026 alone, Syria experienced both severe snowstorms and widespread flooding.

These crises are layered on the legacy of 14 years of conflict, which devastated homes, infrastructure and essential services across the country.

In Daraa province alone, more than 95,000 homes were damaged during the war, including 33,400 that were completely destroyed, the interim government said on Feb. 25.

Nationwide, electricity generation has fallen sharply, leaving most areas with only a few hours of state power each day.

Years of conflict destroyed power plants, transmission lines and substations, reducing effective generation from about 9.5 gigawatts before the war to around 1.5 to 3 gigawatts in recent years, against demand of roughly 6.5 gigawatts or more.

Against this backdrop, disasters like February’s floods do not just disrupt lives — they compound years of loss.

For Nour and millions like her, the war may no longer dominate headlines, but its consequences remain immediate. And when the floodwaters rise, there is often little left to save.