Gaza civilian death toll could be as high as 83%: Israeli data

Destroyed buildings in Gaza are visible, as the sun sets, from Israel, Aug. 21, 2025. (AFP)
Short Url
Updated 21 August 2025
Follow

Gaza civilian death toll could be as high as 83%: Israeli data

  • Investigation finds 8,900 fighters killed by May out of more than 53,000 total casualties
  • Retired Israeli general: ‘Absolutely no connection between the numbers that are announced and what is actually happening’

LONDON: As many as 83 percent of Palestinian casualties in Gaza could be civilians, classified Israeli data suggests.

A joint investigation by The Guardian, Hebrew-language Local Call and the Israeli-Palestinian +972 Magazine found that Israeli officials had been able to name 8,900 people killed or “probably dead” in Gaza as members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad as of May this year.

At the time, the total death toll from the war was believed to be at least 53,000 people according to local authorities, meaning that just 17 percent of those identified were combatants.

The database used to assess combatant casualty figures is based on documents seized by the Israeli military in Gaza.
In total, 47,653 Palestinians are identified as being members of Hamas or Islamic Jihad, meaning that a little under 40,000 are believed to be still alive

The Israeli military also believes Gaza’s health authorities’ data on casualties to be reliable, Local Call reported, though these figures are likely to be an underestimate as thousands of people remain buried under rubble, and only bodies positively identified are counted.

Therese Pettersson of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program told The Guardian: “That proportion of civilians among those killed would be unusually high, particularly as it has been going on for such a long time.

“If you single out a particular city or battle in another conflict, you could find similar rates, but very rarely overall.”

She added that since 1989, UCDP had only identified the siege of Srebrenica, the Rwandan genocide and the 2022 siege of Mariupol as conflicts that saw civilian casualties outnumber combatants.

Previously, Israeli politicians have cited a far more balanced casualty rate, with some suggesting it could even be equal between combatants and civilians. Others have suggested in the past that 20,000 people killed in Gaza were militants.

This could be on account of collating members of the enclave’s civilian infrastructure or people with loose ties to fighters — such as police and politicians — with membership of militant groups, but it is also believed that civilians without ties to Islamic Jihad or Hamas are included in those tallies.

One source who spent time with the Israeli military in Gaza told The Guardian that “people are promoted to the rank of terrorist after their death,” adding: “If I had listened to the brigade, I would have come to the conclusion that we had killed 200 percent of Hamas operatives in the area.”

Retired Gen. Itzhak Brik, a former commander of Israel’s military colleges, told The Guardian that he had been told by former colleagues the numbers were inflated.
“There is absolutely no connection between the numbers that are announced and what is actually happening,” he said. “It is just one big bluff.”

Palestinian analyst Muhammad Shehada told the newspaper that by last December, the number of dead Hamas and Islamic Jihad members from their own data was around 6,500.

“Israel expands the boundaries so they can define every single person in Gaza as Hamas,” he said. “All of it is killing in the moment for tactical purposes that have nothing to do with extinguishing a threat.”

Moreover, the number of dead, and the disparity between civilian and combatant deaths, may have increased since May, with hunger now believed to be widespread due to a lack of food in Gaza, and an increase in the number of civilian deaths at aid distribution sites in the enclave.

The impending Israeli ground offensive in the north of Gaza will likely further widen this gap. So far, in excess of 62,000 people are believed to have been killed in the enclave.

Mary Kaldor, professor of global governance at the London School of Economics, said the nature of the Gaza conflict is also causing a disproportionate number of civilian casualties.

“In Gaza we are talking about a campaign of targeted assassinations, really, rather than battles, and they are carried out with no concern for civilians,” she added.

Comparing Gaza to recent conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Sudan, she said: “These are wars where the armed groups tend to avoid battle. They don’t want to fight each other, they want to control territory and they do that by killing civilians.

“Maybe that is the same with Israel, and this is a model of war (in Gaza) that is about dominating a population and controlling land. Maybe the objective always was forced displacement.”

Neta Crawford, professor of international relations at Oxford University, said tactics used by Israel mark a “worrisome” departure from previously established norms to protect civilians.

“They say they’re using the same kinds of procedures for civilian casualty estimation and mitigation as states like the United States. But if you look at these casualty rates, and their practices with the bombing and the destruction of civilian infrastructure, it is clear that they are not,” she said.

In a statement to The Guardian, the Israeli military said the figures published in the investigation “are incorrect.”


Why US-Syrian coordination is more important than ever

Updated 8 sec ago
Follow

Why US-Syrian coordination is more important than ever

  • A deadly Daesh attack on a joint patrol strengthens the case for cooperation between Washington and Damascus, say analysts
  • They say as Syria joins global anti-Daesh coalition, sustained US and international support is vital to dismantle the Assad regime legacy

LONDON: A deadly terrorist attack that targeted a joint patrol of Syrian security forces and US troops near the ancient city of Palmyra has drawn strong condemnation across the Arab world, while also highlighting the importance and potential of emerging cooperation between Damascus and Washington.

Saturday’s attack in Palmyra, in Syria’s central Homs countryside, struck a joint Syrian-US patrol during a field tour of the area. The city, home to UNESCO-listed ruins, was occupied by Daesh during two periods between 2015 and 2017, marked by systematic cultural destruction, public executions and severe repression of civilians.

According to official accounts, the assailant opened fire on the patrol, killing two US soldiers and a civilian interpreter, and wounding three US troops and two Syrian security personnel. US Central Command said the attacker was an alleged Daesh militant who was subsequently killed.

In a post on the social-media platform X, Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani condemned the attack, calling it a “terrorist” assault on a joint counterterrorism patrol. He extended condolences to the families of the victims and to the US government and people, and wished the injured a swift recovery.

On Sunday, Syria’s Interior Ministry said the attacker was a member of the security forces who had been identified for dismissal over extremist views. Noureddine Al-Baba, a ministry spokesperson, said the individual had served for more than 10 months, had been posted to several cities, and was due to be fired for holding “extremist Islamist ideas.”

US President Donald Trump, meanwhile, warned of “very serious retaliation,” describing the incident as a Daesh attack in a part of Syria “not fully controlled” by Damascus. He added that Syria’s interim president, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, was “extremely angry and disturbed” by the assault.

This handout photograph released by the official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) on November 10, 2025, shows US President Donald Trump (L) receiving Syria's President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the White House in Washington DC. (SANA via AFP)

For Ghassan Ibrahim, a Syria expert and founder of the Global Arab Network, the attack exposes long-standing structural problems rather than a sudden failure. “These problems are not new; what is happening now is that we are uncovering them,” he told Arab News.

He said extremism and the resurgence of Daesh were rooted in the legacy of the deposed regime of Bashar Assad, compounded by years of international disengagement and mismanagement of the Syrian conflict. “Daesh, extremism and similar threats are the direct result of that failure,” he said, adding that the current moment should be used to confront, rather than evade, these realities.

Ibrahim argued that the Palmyra incident must be understood in the context of a rapidly rebuilt security apparatus. The Syrian government, he said, has been working under intense pressure to reconstruct its army and internal security forces after years of war. “What happened was largely a consequence of the urgency of that rebuilding process,” he said.

Crucially, he added, the incident could ultimately strengthen cooperation with Washington. Syrian officials, through ongoing contacts with US counterparts, understand that despite the tragedy, the attack could serve as a catalyst for deeper coordination. “The Americans understand this does not point to a systemic security gap,” Ibrahim said. “Incidents like this can occur in any army, especially one that is barely a year old.”

KEY DATES IN US-SYRIA POLICY SHIFT

• May 13: President Trump announces US will end sanctions on Syria.

• May 23: Caesar Act sanctions waived for 180 days.

• July 1: Comprehensive US sanctions on Syria formally terminated.

• Nov. 10: Caesar Act waiver extended for an additional 180 days. 

Both Ibrahim and Ibrahim Hamidi, editor-in-chief of the Arabic magazine Al-Majalla, stressed that the Palmyra attack underscores the inseparable link between security and development.

Central Syria, particularly the vast and sparsely populated areas around Palmyra stretching toward the Euphrates, remains vulnerable to Daesh remnants, Ibrahim said. Many militants, he noted, escaped from prisons or camps once controlled by Kurdish-led forces in the northeast, sometimes through bribery, and now operate with relative freedom.

“Eliminating Daesh is essential for sustainable development,” Ibrahim said. “Without security, development cannot be sustained.” He added that this dual imperative explains Syria’s decision to join the international coalition against Daesh — a strategy aimed at restoring stability while laying the groundwork for long-term recovery.

Hamidi echoed that assessment, saying US talk of “retaliation” would likely be interpreted in Damascus as a signal of readiness for closer cooperation rather than confrontation. Such cooperation, he said, could involve intelligence sharing, operational coordination, and stricter vetting of new recruits in Syria’s General Security services.

But he cautioned that cooperation is a delicate process. “It is built quietly,” Hamidi said, noting that Syria formally joined the Global Coalition Against Daesh during interim President Al-Sharaa’s visit to Washington and his meeting with Trump on Nov. 10. The Palmyra attack, he added, is a major test of whether trust can be institutionalized.

Hamidi said when he met Al-Sharaa in August, the Syrian leader, who has survived three attempts on his life by Daeshs, identified the group as his enemy number one, citing the loss of 2,000 men so far. Damascus, he added, expects greater US support given that Syrian government forces are Sunni conservatives and direct partners in the fight against Daesh, unlike other regional actors.

Addressing the deeper question of Syria’s need for international backing, Hamidi said dismantling the legacy of the former regime — built over five or six decades — cannot be achieved quickly or in isolation. “The Palmyra attack is the first in which both American and Syrian victims were killed, but it will not be the last,” he said. “Joint counterterrorism operations will reduce the risks.”

That message was echoed by Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkiye and special envoy for Syria, who said the attack underscored Daesh’s enduring global threat. Washington’s strategy, he said, is to empower capable Syrian partners with limited US operational support, keeping the fight local while preventing a resurgence of the group.

Meanwhile, Arab states have strongly condemned the attack in Syria. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Jordan all issued statements rejecting terrorism and expressing solidarity with Syria and the US, underscoring regional backing for stability and counterterrorism cooperation.

The attack came amid a broader recalibration of US policy toward Syria following the fall of the Assad’s regime on Dec. 8, 2024. Sanctions have been eased, the Caesar Act partially suspended, and Syria has been reintegrated into international frameworks, including the Global Coalition Against Daesh as its 90th member.

While Syria’s formal participation in the anti-Daesh coalition is new, coordination with the US began shortly after the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime, when the extremist group appeared to be regrouping and expanding its operations.

Daesh mounted at least 660 attacks across Syria in 2024 — its most active year since its territorial defeat in 2019 — according to data compiled by Syria Weekly.

On Nov. 8, two days before President Al-Sharaa’s trip to Washington, Syria’s Interior Ministry said it had carried out 61 nationwide raids targeting Daesh cells. The operations resulted in 71 arrests and the seizure of weapons and explosives, the ministry told state-run Al-Ekhbariya TV.