ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s banks are set to benefit from better opportunities to generate business volumes due to improving operating conditions amid receding macroeconomic headwinds, Fitch Ratings said in its latest report. 

Pakistan’s economy has shown signs of stabilization in recent months after securing a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout program in September 2024, which helped restore investor confidence. Ratings agencies have since upgraded the country’s sovereign credit profile, citing fiscal reforms, lower inflation, and easing external pressures.

“Pakistan’s banks are set to benefit from better opportunities to generate business volumes due to improving operating conditions amid receding macroeconomic headwinds,” Fitch Ratings said, adding that the view was reinforced by the country’s improved sovereign credit profile following its upgrade of Pakistan’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating to ‘B-’/Stable from ‘CCC+’ in April 2025.

Fitch said Pakistan’s economic recovery comes after “a period of significant turmoil and high inflation,” with real GDP growth expected to accelerate to 3.5 percent by 2027 from 2.5 percent in 2024.

“Consumer price inflation eased to 4.1 percent in July 2025 from its peak of 38 percent in May 2023, and we expect it to average around 5 percent in 2025,” the ratings agency noted.

The statement pointed to monetary easing and currency stability as drivers of recovery:

“The halving of the policy rate since May 2024 to 11 percent and a stabilizing external position, evident in lower currency volatility and current account surpluses, should support this recovery.”

Fitch said that while lower rates and a steadier macroeconomic environment should stimulate private credit demand and reduce banks’ dependence on lending to the public sector, risks remain.

“The banks’ intrinsic creditworthiness will likely remain closely linked to the sovereign and the pace of economic reform in the near term given their significant holdings of sovereign securities and loan exposures to state-linked entities.”

Pakistani banks have posted resilient results despite recent challenges, the agency added.

“The sector’s impaired loan ratio improved to 7.1 percent by March 2025 from 7.6 percent at end-2023, driven by strong loan growth of 26 percent amid high inflation.”

Return on average equity has “normalized to 20 percent in 1Q25, from around 27 percent in 2023,” while capital adequacy reached “a decade-high of 21 percent by March 2025.”

Fitch said that most large Pakistani banks “are well-positioned to navigate the transition to a more normalized operating environment of lower interest rates, although structural challenges persist.”