LONDON: The number of people arriving illegally in Europe has fallen in 2025, but experts warn that irregular migration will persist as conflict and economic hardship intensify and migrants forge new pathways to avoid tougher security measures.

Arrivals fell by 20 percent in the first six months of the year, continuing 2024’s downward trend, according to the EU’s border agency Frontex, which credited the drop to increased cooperation with transit countries.

Since 1 million people entered Europe irregularly during the so-called migrant crisis in 2015, the EU has taken an increasingly tough stance on illicit arrivals.

However, experts say migrants are adapting to stricter EU measures at borders and becoming more reliant on smugglers and newer, often more dangerous routes.

While overall numbers are down, arrivals have not decreased across every route to Europe, and new corridors have emerged as migrants and smugglers adapt. “As one route declines, others usually surge or re-emerge,” said Jennifer Vallentine, an expert at the Mixed Migration Center, a research organization.

Irregular crossings dropped to 240,000 in 2024 after surpassing 300,000 in 2022 and 2023 for the first time since 2016.

Amid the downward trend, a new Mediterranean Sea corridor between Libya and Greece has emerged, with more than 7,000 people arriving in Crete this year.

The Greek government has proposed a new law to criminalize illegal entry and impose a temporary ban on asylum applications.

“Harsh restrictions won’t stop the need and desire to migrate, and with irregular migration the only option for some, smuggler services will stay in demand,” said Vallentine.

The main irregular entry points across the Mediterranean and over the Greek-Turkish land border have remained consistent over the last decade.

But activity on specific routes has fluctuated as people try to avoid increasing surveillance and border controls, according to experts. The EU has sought to shutter access at key entry points, said Helena Hahn, an expert at the European Policy Center think tank.

The bloc has struck deals with Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, key departure points for crossing the Mediterranean, bolstering the countries’ border forces with speed boats and surveillance and offering cash in exchange for preventing illegal migration.

“Cooperation with North African countries has certainly played a role in reducing arrivals,” said Hahn.

Arrivals across the Central Mediterranean route from North Africa to Italy and Malta decreased by 58 percent from 2023 to 2024, which the International Organization for Migration attributed to more boats being stopped at sea and migrants returned to Libya and Algeria.

But the organization also said the EU-North Africa partnerships contribute to increased activity on the Atlantic Ocean route from West Africa to the Canary Islands.

The Central Mediterranean route emerged as the sea’s busiest after the EU struck a deal with Turkiye in 2016, paying Ankara €6 billion ($6.95 billion) to care for Syrians who had fled their country’s civil war.

Turkiye also agreed to “take any necessary measures” to block new illegal routes into the EU.

Over the last decade, Europe has spent billions on surveillance systems and detection equipment and has posted Frontex staff at its external and internal borders.

The Western Balkan Route that connects arrivals in Greece with Western Europe via an arduous journey through the Balkan states has been a target of these efforts and last year, Frontex reported detections of irregular crossings on the route had dropped by 78 percent from 2023.

But the IRC only recorded a 16 percent drop over the same time period, which the organization said suggests people are traveling more covertly to avoid detection. “There’s a lot of deterrence, but it just makes people take more dangerous routes,” said Martha Roussou, a senior advocacy adviser at the International Rescue Committee, a global humanitarian charity.

Migrants are paying smugglers higher fees and traveling more quickly by night, stopping less often to seek help, according to the IRC.

The EU is set to triple its spending on borders in the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework to €81 billion.

“(Europe’s) reactive approach fails to acknowledge migration as both inevitable and beneficial,” said Vallentine.

“Until regular and accessible pathways are established, we will continue to see irregular migration — and smuggling networks will continue to adapt to facilitate it.”