KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank on Wednesday projected economic growth of up to 4.25 percent in the current fiscal year but warned the trade deficit would widen, even as reserves are set to climb on the back of steady remittances and foreign inflows.

The forecast comes as Pakistan implements reforms under a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program approved in September 2024, which has helped stabilize the currency, ease inflation and restore investor confidence. The IMF deal is tied to fiscal consolidation, energy sector reforms, and measures to boost exports, part of a broader effort to strengthen macroeconomic stability after years of chronic external imbalances.

The economy returned to moderate growth last year, aided by improved agricultural output, lower global commodity prices, and a series of policy rate cuts totaling 1,100 basis points since late 2024. Inflation has eased from record highs, while the rupee has stabilized against the dollar after a crackdown on the illegal currency market.

“With the policy rate kept unchanged at 11 percent in the MPC meetings in June and July, the MPC expects the real policy rate to be adequately positive to stabilize inflation within the medium-term target range,” the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said in its Monetary Policy Report (MPR) released on Wednesday. 

“In the external account, the MPR expects the trade deficit to widen further and, notwithstanding continued expected growth in workers’ remittances, result in a current account deficit of 0–1 percent of GDP in FY26,” it added.

The central bank said “projected financial inflows, coupled with continued SBP interbank FX purchases, would support further buildup in SBP’s FX reserves, which are projected to rise to $15.5 billion by end-December 2025.”

Economic activity, it said, was “projected to gain further traction, with the impact of the earlier reductions in the policy rate still unfolding,” and real GDP growth was expected to range between 3.25 percent and 4.25 percent in FY26.

The MPR also flagged “potential external and domestic risks to the baseline macroeconomic outlook” and included analysis of the lag in monetary policy transmission, comparisons with global central bank decisions, and the SBP’s use of alternative data and machine learning to fill gaps in labor market and agriculture statistics.