RIYADH: Egypt’s economy is showing resilience despite global headwinds, with foreign investment and policy reforms helping offset volatile markets, Standard Chartered said in its latest outlook.
In its Global Focus – Economic Outlook H2-2025 report, the bank cited growing confidence in the Egyptian pound, underpinned by strong foreign exchange inflows from portfolio investments and official sector support.
Standard Chartered said major investment pledges from Qatar and Kuwait, totaling $12.5 billion, are expected to see at least 50 percent disbursement by the end of 2025.
Egypt’s economic resilience comes at a critical time, as global markets face heightened volatility due to geopolitical tensions, fluctuating commodity prices, and the imposition of tariffs.
The country’s ability to attract foreign investment reflects growing confidence in its reform agenda, while its strategic location as a regional trade hub, coupled with large-scale infrastructure projects such as the Suez Canal Economic Zone, further enhances its appeal to investors.
“The Egyptian economy is on a promising path,” said Mohammed Gad, CEO of Standard Chartered, Egypt.
“We expect the current account deficit to narrow, driven by surging remittances — up approximately 60 percent year on year in March. — and a recovering export sector,” he added.
“Despite the Central Bank of Egypt’s easing cycle, the carry trade continues to attract interest, further supported by the successful testing of FX (foreign exchange market) convertibility,” the bank added in a press release.
The International Monetary Fund is expected to prioritize structural reforms, including tighter fiscal policies and increased privatization, which could further strengthen Egypt’s economic foundations.
Following its fourth review of the extended fund facility arrangement for Egypt in March, the IMF said that the Egyptian authorities “have continued to implement key policies to preserve macroeconomic stability, despite ongoing regional tensions that had caused a sharp decline in Suez Canal receipts.”
The bank maintained its gross domestic product growth forecast for the financial year of 2026 at 4.5 percent, emphasizing the importance of private investment in sustaining recovery.
While inflation remains elevated between 13 and 17 percent, the bank expects the CBE to proceed cautiously with rate cuts, projecting a policy rate of 19.25 percent by year-end.
Inflation is forecast to average 11 percent in the next financial year, driven by cost pressures in health care, food, and transport, but proactive government measures are expected to mitigate these challenges and support long-term resilience.
Global growth is expected to moderate slightly in 2025, with Standard Chartered revising its forecast down to 3.1 percent from 3.2 percent, primarily due to trade policy uncertainties.
However, several regions show promising growth potential. “Growth in the Middle East is expected to benefit from the reversal of OPEC+ production cuts and ongoing efforts to diversify away from oil dependence,” the release added.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is projected at 4.1 percent, aided by its lower exposure to global trade volatility, though structural reforms remain key to sustaining momentum.
Asia continues to lead global expansion with a forecast of 4.9 percent, followed by the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region at 3.4 percent, while major developed economies trail significantly at 1.3 percent.
Despite broader challenges, these regional bright spots highlight uneven but resilient economic dynamics worldwide.
Egypt’s proactive reforms and investment inflows position it as a standout performer in an otherwise uncertain global landscape.
