ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) soared to another all-time high as it surpassed the 143,000-point mark on Tuesday, with analysts linking the bullish trend to the country’s 9-year low fiscal deficit and optimism about macroeconomic stability.
The benchmark KSE-100 index jumped 984.52 points, or 0.69 percent, to close at 143,037.16 points, compared to the previous day's close of 142,052.64 points.
The development came as Pakistan recorded a 5.38 percent deficit — its lowest in nine years — in fiscal year 2024-25 that ended in June, beating the government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates.
The major contributors to the rally were Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC), United Bank Limited (UBL), MCB Bank Limited (MCB), Hub Power Company (HUBC), and Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT), collectively adding 679 points.
"Sentiment further strengthened as Pakistan reported a 9-year low fiscal deficit of 5.38 percent in FY25, with 36 percent YoY (year-on-year) revenue growth outpacing an 18 percent rise in expenditures," the Karachi-based Topline Securities firm said in its market review.
"Investor confidence was fueled by local and foreign inflows and gains across many sectors of the market," it said. "The market’s upward trajectory reflects optimism over fiscal discipline, macroeconomic stability and a stronger earnings outlook, setting the stage for sustained momentum in the sessions ahead."
Overall, the PSX recorded a trading volume of 548 million shares, with a turnover of Rs37 billion.
Ahsan Mehanti, the CEO of Arif Habib Commodities, attributed the rally to the government's fiscal policies.
"Government approval to resume subsidies for fully funded remittances scheme to ensure rupee stability, surging global equities, speculations over government resolve to end power sector circular debt crisis played a catalyst role in the bullish close," he told Arab News.
The development comes amid a broader macroeconomic turnaround for Pakistan, which is currently in its first year of a $7 billion IMF loan program approved in September 2024 to stabilize the economy, increase revenues and curb inflation after a prolonged balance of payments crisis.
According to Topline Securities, non-tax revenues have surged 66% year-on-year, led by a robust dividend of Rs2.62 trillion from the central bank, the State Bank of Pakistan, up from Rs0.97 trillion in FY24. Meanwhile, tax revenues grew 26%, driven primarily by gains in collections by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).
“In the last 5 years, FBR revenues (including Petroleum Development Levy) have increased 3.02x from Rs4.3 trillion in FY20 to Rs12.9 trillion in FY25,” the report noted, adding that over the same period, GDP rose from Rs41 trillion to Rs114.6 trillion.
The FBR’s tax-to-GDP ratio rose to 11.3% in FY25, a seven-year high compared to 9.7% last year.
“This is higher than the average of 9.9% recorded between FY20 to FY24,” the brokerage said, noting that higher Petroleum Development Levy collections may have substituted for sales tax to avoid revenue-sharing obligations with provinces.
Pakistan also recorded a primary surplus of 2.4% of GDP in FY25 – the highest in more than two decades – as revenue growth outpaced expenditures. This exceeded both the government's revised projection of 2.2% and the IMF’s forecast of 2.1%.
“Higher primary surplus is achieved as revenue growth surpassed the expenditures growth,” Topline Securities said.
Interest expenses as a percentage of FBR taxes declined to 76% in FY25 from 88% in FY24, reflecting better debt management.
“The improvement in debt servicing is on the back of controlled growth — 9% in interest expenses — due to lower interest rates,” the report said.
Development spending also rose, with the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) reaching 2.6% of GDP, its highest in five years, though still well below the 5% peak recorded in FY2017.
Looking ahead, Topline Securities said, it expected the government to continue on a path of fiscal consolidation.
“Pakistan is expected to post [a] third consecutive year of primary surplus in FY26 after two decades,” it said. “While overall fiscal deficit is expected to clock in at 4.0–4.1% of GDP in FY26, [the] lowest in two decades.”
The improved fiscal performance is likely to strengthen Islamabad’s case in ongoing negotiations with the IMF and other international creditors as it seeks long-term debt sustainability and economic recovery.
