Oil Updates — crude steady as investors weigh trade optimism against potential Venezuelan supply increase

Brent crude futures were up 20 cents, or 0.29 percent, at $69.38 a barrel by 8:19 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
Short Url
Updated 25 July 2025
Follow

Oil Updates — crude steady as investors weigh trade optimism against potential Venezuelan supply increase

  • EU says trade deal with US within reach
  • US prepares to allow limited oil operations in Venezuela, sources say

LONDON: Oil prices were steady on Friday, as trade talk optimism supported the outlook for both the global economy and oil demand, balancing news of the potential for more oil supply from Venezuela.

Brent crude futures were up 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $69.46 a barrel at 3:11 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 27 cents, or 0.41 percent, at $66.30.

Brent was heading for a 0.3 percent weekly gain at that level, while WTI was down around 1.5 percent from where it closed last week.

Brent prices have been largely range-bound between $67 and $70 a barrel for the last month, since the sharp drop in prices in late June after de-escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict.

Oil prices are “caught in largely a holding pattern brought about by inconclusive specific oil drivers,” PVM analyst John Evans said.

Oil, along with stock markets, gained support from the prospect of more deals between the US and trading partners ahead of an August 1 deadline for new tariffs on goods from an array of countries.

After the US and Japan secured a trade deal this week, two European diplomats said the EU was moving toward a deal involving a baseline US tariff of 15 percent on EU imports, plus possible exemptions.

“Trade talk optimism appears to be offsetting expectations for stronger Venezuelan supply,” ING analysts wrote in a client note on Friday.

The US is preparing to allow partners of Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA, starting with US oil major Chevron, to operate with limitations in the sanctioned nation, sources said on Thursday.

Venezuelan oil exports could consequently increase by a little more than 200,000 barrels per day, which would be welcome news for US refiners, as it would ease tightness in the heavier crude market, ING analysts wrote.

Prices were also supported this week by disruptions to Black Sea oil exports and Azeri BTC crude loading from the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

“Delays in deliveries from the Russian terminal on the Black Sea and the Turkish port on the Mediterranean are likely to have contributed to the Brent oil price rising back toward $70. Now that exports are back to normal, support for prices is likely to ease,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.


Experts clash over effect of war on oil supply

Updated 06 March 2026
Follow

Experts clash over effect of war on oil supply

  • International energy chief dismisses crisis fears * But Qatari minister warns exports could halt ‘in weeks’

BRUSSELS: International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol on Friday dismissed fears of a global oil crisis, and said there was “plenty of oil in the market.”
But he was contradicted by Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi, who said Gulf oil producers could halt exports within weeks because of the US-Israel-Iran war, sending crude prices to $150 a barrel.

The war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks across the Gulf have already sent crude prices soaring by about 20 percent, fanning fears of a fresh spike in inflation that could hit the global economy. Shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz has all but dried up.
US President Donald Trump has pledged to protect ships passing through and promised further action to “reduce pressure on oil,” but prices have remained elevated. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up 2.77 percent on Friday to nearly $88 a barrel.

However, Birol said: “There is plenty of oil, we have no oil shortage. There is a huge surplus in the market. We are facing a temporary disruption, a logistical disruption.”

Nevertheless, Al-Kaabi insisted there would be pressure on oil supplies “in two to three weeks” if tankers were unable to pass through the Strait.

“Everybody that has ​not called for force majeure we expect ⁠will do so in the next ​few days that this continues. All exporters in ​the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” he said. “Everybody's energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of ​some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”

Qatar halted its liquefied natural gas production on March 2, as Iranian retaliation for US and Israeli strikes continued to target Gulf countries.