Pakistan moves closer to IMF target as tax-to-GDP ratio climbs to 10.6 percent

People walk past a sidewalk money exchange showcase, which is decorated with pictures of currency notes, in Karachi, Pakistan on September 12, 2023. (REUTERS/File)
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Updated 23 July 2025
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Pakistan moves closer to IMF target as tax-to-GDP ratio climbs to 10.6 percent

  • Pakistan aims to meet 13% tax-to-GDP ratio under 37-month IMF program
  • Income tax filers rise to 7.2 million, with $1.6 billion jump from retail sector

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio rose by 1.5 percentage points in fiscal year 2024–25 to reach 10.6%, officials said on Wednesday, marking progress toward the government’s 13% target under a three-year International Monetary Fund (IMF) reform program.

The increase comes as part of fiscal commitments under a 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with the IMF approved last year. During a review meeting in Islamabad, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called for tighter oversight and accelerated digital reforms to expand the country’s tax base and bring more of the informal economy into the net.

The tax-to-GDP ratio had stood at 9.1% the previous year, and rose to 10.6% by the end of June 2025, according to a briefing at the meeting chaired by the prime minister.

The government aims to continue raising the ratio under a wider economic and structural reform agenda backed by the IMF, which includes digitization of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), to improve enforcement and increase compliance.

“Digitization at the FBR has helped meet targets, but steps must now be taken to ensure the system becomes sustainable,” the prime minister was quoted as saying in a statement released by his office. “Enforcement must be strengthened further to curb the informal economy.”

The meeting was told that total tax revenue collected in FY2024–25 crossed Rs20.4 trillion ($71.4 billion), while the number of income tax return filers jumped from 4.5 million in 2024 to over 7.2 million by June 2025.

Officials credited the increase to enhanced enforcement, including reforms in the retail sector, integration of point-of-sale systems, and an expanded digital footprint.

They said tax revenue from the retail sector alone rose by Rs455 billion ($1.6 billion) compared to the previous year.

The prime minister instructed FBR to fast-track the restructuring of its digital wing, set deadlines for implementation, and consult all stakeholders, including taxpayers and the business community, to ensure the reform process remains inclusive.

He also praised FBR officials and directed them to present actionable targets for the next phase of reforms within a week.


Rating firm S&P says it won’t rush Iran war downgrades, sees risks for countries like Pakistan

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Rating firm S&P says it won’t rush Iran war downgrades, sees risks for countries like Pakistan

  • Agency says it is monitoring indebted energy importers as higher oil prices strain finances
  • Gulf economies seen better placed to weather shock, though Bahrain flagged as vulnerable

LONDON: S&P Global ‌said it would not make any knee-jerk sovereign rating cuts following the outbreak of war in the ​Middle East, but warned on Thursday that soaring oil and gas prices were putting a number of already cash-strapped countries at risk.

The firm’s top analysts said in a webinar that the conflict, which has involved US and Israeli strikes ‌against Iran and Iranian ‌strikes against Israel, ​US ‌bases ⁠and Gulf ​states, ⁠was now moving from a low- to moderate-risk scenario.

Most Gulf countries had enough fiscal buffers, however, to weather the crisis for a while, with more lowly rated Bahrain the only clear exception.

Qatar’s banking sector could ⁠also struggle if there were significant ‌deposit outflows in ‌reaction to the conflict, although there ​was no evidence ‌of such strains at the moment, they ‌said.

“We don’t want to jump the gun and just say things are bad,” S&P’s head global sovereign analyst, Roberto Sifon-Arevalo, said.

The longer the crisis ‌was prolonged, though, “the more difficult it is going to be,” he ⁠added.

Sifon-Arevalo ⁠said Asia was the second-most exposed region, due to many of its countries being significant Gulf oil and gas importers.

India, Thailand and Indonesia have relatively lower reserves of oil, while the region also had already heavily indebted countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka whose finances would be further hurt by rising energy prices.

“We ​are closely monitoring ​these (countries) to see how the credit stories evolve,” Sifon-Arevalo said.