VIENNA: The world oil market may be tighter than it appears despite a supply and demand balance pointing to a surplus, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, as refineries ramp up processing to meet summer travel demand.
The IEA, which advises industrialized countries, expects global supply to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year, up 300,000 bpd from the previous forecast. World demand will rise by just 700,000 bpd, it said, implying a sizeable surplus.
Despite making those changes, the IEA said that rising refinery processing rates aimed at meeting summer travel and power-generation demand were tightening the market and the latest supply hike from OPEC+ announced on Saturday had not had much effect.
“The decision by OPEC+ to further accelerate the unwinding of production cuts failed to move markets in a meaningful way given tighter fundamentals,” the agency said in a monthly report.
“Price indicators also point to a tighter physical oil market than suggested by the hefty surplus in our balances.”
Earlier this week, ministers and executives from OPEC nations and bosses of Western oil majors said the output increases are not leading to higher inventories, showing that markets are thirsty for more oil.
Next year, the IEA sees demand growth averaging 720,000 bpd, some 20,000 bpd lower than previously thought, with supply growth rising by 1.3 million bpd, also implying a surplus.
