This is what could happen next after an Israel-Iran ceasefire

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L), Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (C) and US President Donald Trump (R). (AFP file photo)
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U.S. Vice Admiral Charles Cooper II, nominated to be admiral and Commander of United States Central Command, testifies before a Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 24, 2025. (REUTERS)
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Updated 25 June 2025
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This is what could happen next after an Israel-Iran ceasefire

  • Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, deputy commander of US Central Command, who has been nominated to lead forces in the Middle East, told lawmakers Tuesday that Iran still possesses “significant tactical capability” despite the American strikes
  • In response to a question about whether the Iranians still pose a threat to US troops and Americans worldwide, Cooper replied, “They do”

WASHINGTON: The whipsaw chain of events involving Iran, Israel and the United States that culminated in a surprise ceasefire has raised many questions about how the Trump administration will approach the Middle East going forward.
Yet, the answer to the bottom line question — “what’s next?” — remains unknowable and unpredictable. That is because President Donald Trump has essentially sidelined the traditional US national security apparatus and confined advice and decision-making to a very small group of top aides operating from the White House.
While there is uncertainty about whether the ceasefire between Iran and Israel will hold, it opens the possibility of renewed talks with Tehran over its nuclear program and reinvigorating stalled negotiations in other conflicts.
Watching for next steps on Trump’s social media
Outside experts, long consulted by presidential administrations on policy, have been forced like the general public to follow Trump’s social media musings and pronouncements for insights on his thinking or the latest turn of events.
Even Congress does not appear to be in the loop as top members were provided only cursory notifications of Trump’s weekend decision to hit three Israeli nuclear facilities and briefings on their impact scheduled for Tuesday were abruptly postponed.
State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce, whose agency has played a key role in formulating Iran policy for decades, repeatedly on Tuesday deferred questions to the White House and Trump’s posts.
“The secretary of state was in a dynamic with the president that is a private dynamic as that team was addressing a war and the nature of how to stop it,” she told reporters. “I can’t speak to how that transpired or the decisions that were made.”
Trump’s announcement Monday that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire took many in the administration by surprise — as did his post Tuesday that China is now free to import Iranian oil.
It’s an apparent 180-degree shift from Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign” on Iran since he withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement during his first term. US officials were left wondering if that meant wide-ranging sanctions aimed at cutting off Iran’s energy revenue were being eased or reversed.
Assessing the damage to Iran’s nuclear program
While the extent of the damage from 11 days of Israeli attacks and Saturday’s strikes by US bunker-buster bombs is not yet fully known, a preliminary assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency said the nuclear program had been set back only a few months and was not “completely and fully obliterated” as Trump has said.
According to people familiar with the report, it found that while the strikes at the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites did significant damage, they were not totally destroyed.
Still, most experts believe the facilities will require months or longer to repair or reconstruct if Iran chooses to try to maintain its program at previous levels.
Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, deputy commander of US Central Command, who has been nominated to lead forces in the Middle East, told lawmakers Tuesday that Iran still possesses “significant tactical capability” despite the American strikes. He pointed to Iran’s attempt to retaliate with missile launches at a US base in Qatar.
In response to a question about whether the Iranians still pose a threat to US troops and Americans worldwide, Cooper replied, “They do.”
Trump, after announcing the ceasefire, boasted that Iran will never again have a nuclear program.
However, there are serious questions about whether Iran’s leadership, which has placed a high premium on maintaining its nuclear capabilities, will be willing to negotiate them away.
Restarting US-Iran nuclear talks is possible
Another major question is what happens with negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. It is not entirely clear who in Iran has the authority to make a deal or even agree to reenter talks with the US or others.
Ray Takeyh, a former State Department official and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Iranian leadership is at a moment of disarray — making it difficult to return to the table.
“The country’s leadership and the regime is not cohesive enough to be able to come to some sort of negotiations at this point, especially negotiations from the American perspective, whose conclusion is predetermined, namely, zero enrichment,” he said.
Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, agreed, saying that “the biggest challenge right now is who is in charge in Tehran.”
“Is there an Iranian negotiation team empowered to make consequential decisions?” he said. “The issue is that (Trump) is dealing with an Iranian government whose longtime identity has been based on hostility toward the the United States.”
Still, a US official said Tuesday that special envoy Steve Witkoff is ready to resume negotiations if Trump tells him to and Iran is willing. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters.
Witkoff has maintained an open line of direct communication via text messages with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
In the aftermath of the US strikes, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio both stressed that diplomacy is still Trump’s preferred method for ending the conflict permanently.
“We didn’t blow up the diplomacy,” Vance told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “The diplomacy never was given a real chance by the Iranians. And our hope … is that this maybe can reset here. The Iranians have a choice. They can go down the path of peace or they can go down the path of this ridiculous brinksmanship.”
Rubio echoed those comments.
“We’re prepared right now, if they call right now and say we want to meet, let’s talk about this, we’re prepared to do that,” he said. “The president’s made that clear from the very beginning: His preference is to deal with this issue diplomatically.”
The Israel-Iran ceasefire could affect Trump’s approach to other conflicts
If it holds, the ceasefire could offer insight to the Trump administration as it tries to broker peace in several other significant conflicts with ties to Iran.
An end — even a temporary one — to the Iran-Israel hostilities may allow the administration to return to talks with mediators like Egypt and Qatar to seek an end to the war between Israel and the Iranian-backed militant group Hamas.
In Syria, a further shift away from now-weakened Iranian influence — pervasive during ousted leader Bashar Assad’s reign — could open new doors for US-Syria cooperation. Trump already has met the leader of the new Syrian government and eased US sanctions.
Similarly, tense US relations with Lebanon also could benefit from a reduced Iranian role in supporting the Hezbollah militant group, which has been a force of its own — rivaling if not outperforming the Lebanese Armed Forces, particularly near the Israeli border.
If an Iran-Israel ceasefire holds, it also could allow Trump the time and space to return to stalled efforts to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
Russia and Iran have substantial economic and military cooperation, including Tehran providing Moscow with drones that the Russian military has relied on heavily in its war against Ukraine.
Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine in recent days as Israel attacked sites in Iran, perhaps expecting the world’s attention to shift away from its three-year-old invasion.

 


Attacks against Palestinians intensify in occupied West Bank, says UN rights office

Updated 15 July 2025
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Attacks against Palestinians intensify in occupied West Bank, says UN rights office

  • About 30,000 Palestinians have been forcibly displaced in the north of the occupied West Bank since the Israeli military launched its ‘Iron Wall’ operation
  • In June, the UN recorded the highest monthly count of Palestinians injured in over two decades in the West Bank

GENEVA: There has been an increase in killings of and attacks against Palestinians by settlers and security forces in the occupied West Bank in recent weeks, the United Nations human rights office said on Tuesday.

“Israeli settlers and security forces have intensified their killings, attacks and harassment of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, in the past weeks,” Thameen Al-Kheetan, a spokesperson for the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OCHCR), told reporters in Geneva.

About 30,000 Palestinians have been forcibly displaced in the north of the occupied West Bank since the Israeli military launched its “Iron Wall” operation.

It is contributing to the ongoing consolidation of annexation of the West Bank, in violation of international law, the OHCHR said.

In June, the UN recorded the highest monthly count of Palestinians injured in over two decades in the West Bank.

Since January there have been 757 settler attacks on Palestinians or their properties, which is a 13 percent increase on the same period last year, OHCHR said.

At least 964 Palestinians have been killed since October 7, 2023, by Israeli forces and settlers in the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem. Fifty-three Israelis have been killed in the West Bank and in Israel in reported attacks by Palestinians or in armed clashes, the office added.


One in ten children screened in UNRWA clinics are malnourished, says UN Palestinian refugee agency

Updated 15 July 2025
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One in ten children screened in UNRWA clinics are malnourished, says UN Palestinian refugee agency

  • One in ten children screened in UNRWA clinics are malnourished

GENEVA: One in ten children screened in clinics run by the United Nations refugee agency in Gaza is malnourished, UNRWA said on Tuesday.
"Our health teams are confirming that malnutrition rates are increasing in Gaza, especially since the siege was tightened more than four months ago on the second of March," UNRWA's Director of Communications, Juliette Touma, told reporters in Geneva via a video link from Amman, Jordan.


Israel military says striking Hezbollah targets in east Lebanon

Updated 15 July 2025
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Israel military says striking Hezbollah targets in east Lebanon

  • Israel's military said: “Moments ago, Israeli Air Force fighter jets... began numerous strikes toward Hezbollah terror targets in the area of Beqaa, Lebanon”

JERUSALEM: Israel’s military said it was striking targets belonging to Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force in eastern Lebanon on Tuesday, the latest attack despite a ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group.
“Moments ago, Israeli Air Force fighter jets... began numerous strikes toward Hezbollah terror targets in the area of Beqaa, Lebanon,” it said in a statement.
“The military compounds that were struck were used by the Hezbollah terrorist organization for training and exercising terrorists to plan and carry out terrorist attacks against (Israeli) troops and the State of Israel,” it added.
The statement said an Israeli military operation in September 2024 had “eliminated” Radwan force commanders in Beirut and southern Lebanon, but that “since then the unit has been operating to reestablish its capabilities.”
“The storage of weapons and the activities of the Hezbollah terrorist organization at these sites constitute a blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon and constitute a future threat to the State of Israel,” it added.
Israel has repeatedly bombed Lebanon despite a November ceasefire that sought to end over a year of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, including two months of all-out war that left the group severely weakened.
Under the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah was to pull its fighters back north of the Litani river, about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the Israeli border, leaving the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers as the only armed parties in the region.
Israel was required to fully withdraw its troops from the country but has kept them in five places it deems strategic.


Drone attack shuts Iraq oil field run by US company

Updated 15 July 2025
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Drone attack shuts Iraq oil field run by US company

  • The Kurdistan natural resources ministry said the Sarsang oil field in Duhok province was hit
  • Strike called ‘an act of terrorism against the Kurdistan Region’s vital economic infrastructure’

IRBIL, Iraq: A drone strike forced a US company to suspend operations at an oil field in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region Tuesday, amid a wave of similar attacks targeting the region’s energy infrastructure.

The Kurdistan natural resources ministry said the Sarsang oil field in Duhok province was hit, calling the strike “an act of terrorism against the Kurdistan Region’s vital economic infrastructure.”

The attack followed a similar drone strike a day earlier in neighboring Irbil province.

HKN Energy, the US company, said Tuesday’s blast occurred at about 7:00 a.m. (0400 GMT) at one of its production facilities in the Sarsang field.

“Operations at the affected facility have been suspended until the site is secured,” it said in a statement.

A fire broke out following the explosion, which did not cause any casualties.

Emergency response teams have contained the blaze, the company said later in an update.

In the past few weeks, there has been a spate of drone and rocket attacks mostly affecting Kurdistan.

Long plagued by conflict, Iraq has frequently experienced such attacks, often linked to regional proxy struggles.

The explosion in Sarsang field occurred a day after three explosive-laden drone attacks were reported in Kurdistan, with one drone shot down near Irbil airport, which hosts US troops, and another two hitting the Khurmala oil field causing material damage.

There has been no claim of responsibility for those attacks.

But, on July 3, the Kurdistan authorities said a drone was downed near Irbil airport, blaming the Hashed Al-Shaabi – a coalition of pro-Iran former paramilitaries now integrated into the regular armed forces.

The federal government in Baghdad rejected the accusation.

The latest attacks come at a time of heightened tension between Baghdad and Irbil over oil exports, with a major pipeline through Turkiye shut since 2023 over legal disputes and technical issues.

In May, Iraq’s federal authorities filed a complaint against the autonomous Kurdistan region for signing gas contracts with two US companies, including HKN Energy.


Syria defense minister announces ceasefire in Druze-majority Sweida

Updated 15 July 2025
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Syria defense minister announces ceasefire in Druze-majority Sweida

  • A curfew was to be imposed on the southern city of Sweida in a bid to halt the violence
  • Syrian troops had begun moving toward the city on Monday, taking control of at least one Druze village

DAMASCUS: Syria’s defense minister announced a ceasefire in the Druze-majority city of Sweida on Tuesday after government forces entered the city to end deadly clashes with Bedouin tribes.

“To all units operating within the city of Sweida, we declare a complete ceasefire after an agreement with the city’s notables and dignitaries,” Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra posted on X. Clashes had erupted between government forces and Druze fighters after contradictory statements from Druze religious leaders, with most urging fighters to lay down their arms.
Syrian government forces entered the majority Druze city of Sweida on Tuesday, the interior ministry said, aiming to end clashes with Bedouin tribes that have killed nearly 100 people.

The southern city had been under the control of armed factions from the Druze minority, whose religious leaders said they had approved the deployment of Damascus’s troops and called on fighters to hand over their weapons.

A curfew was to be imposed on the southern city in a bid to halt the violence, which erupted at the weekend and has since spread across Sweida governorate.

Government forces said they intervened to separate the two sides but ended up taking control of several Druze areas around Sweida, an AFP correspondent reported.

Military columns were seen advancing toward Sweida on Tuesday morning, with heavy artillery deployed nearby.

The defense ministry said later that they had entered the city, and urged people to “stay home and report any movements of outlaw groups.”

An AFP correspondent heard explosions and gunshots as soldiers moved into Sweida.

Troops had begun heading toward the city on Monday, taking control of at least one Druze village, with one Druze faction saying talks were underway with the Damascus government.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor reported 99 people killed since the fighting erupted on Sunday — 60 Druze, including four civilians, 18 Bedouin fighters, 14 security personnel and seven unidentified people in military uniforms.

The defense ministry reported 18 deaths among the ranks of the armed forces.

While Druze religious authorities had called on Monday evening for a ceasefire and said they didn’t oppose the central government, Sheikh Hikmat Al-Hijri, one of the three Druze spiritual leaders in Sweida, opposed the arrival of the security forces and called for “international protection.”

Israel, which has attempted to portray itself as a protector of the Druze in Syria and sees them as potential allies, bombed several Syrian tanks on Monday.

The strikes were “a clear warning to the Syrian regime – we will not allow harm to be done to the Druze in Syria,” said Defense Minister Israel Katz, whose country has its own Druze population.

The fighting underscores the challenges facing interim leader Ahmad Al-Sharaa, whose Islamist forces ousted president Bashar Assad in December after nearly 14 years of civil war.

Syria’s pre-war Druze population was estimated at around 700,000, many of them concentrated in Sweida province.

The Druze, followers of an esoteric religion that split from Shiite Islam, are mainly found in Syria, Lebanon and Israel.

Following deadly clashes with government forces in April and May, local and religious leaders reached an agreement with Damascus under which Druze fighters had been providing security in the province.

“We lived in a state of extreme terror – the shells were falling randomly,” said Abu Taym, a 51-year-old father.

Amal, a 46-year-old woman, said: “We fear a repeat of the coastal scenario,” referring to massacres in March of more than 1,700 mostly Alawite civilians in northwest Syria, where groups affiliated with the government were blamed for most of the killings.

“We are not against the state, but we are against surrendering our weapons without a state that treats everyone the same,” she added.

In a post on X, Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra urged his troops to “protect your fellow citizens” from “outlaw gangs,” and to “restore stability to Sweida.”

The violence began on Sunday when Bedouin gunmen abducted a Druze vegetable vendor on the highway to Damascus, prompting retaliatory kidnappings.

The Observatory said members of Bedouin tribes, who are Sunni Muslims, had sided with security forces during earlier confrontations with the Druze.

Bedouin and Druze factions have a longstanding feud in Sweida, and violence occasionally erupts between the two sides.