RIYADH: Bahrain’s Islamic finance industry is likely to surpass $100 billion within the next three to five years, according to global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings.

This growth will be fueled by the need for diversification and funding, partly addressed through sukuk, as well as a favorable regulatory environment and ongoing mergers and acquisitions, according to a statement.

This aligns with Bahrain’s banking sector assets to GDP ratio, which was estimated at 516 percent in 2024, indicating a highly concentrated and competitive market that presents significant challenges for both Islamic and conventional banks. 

The debt capital market is primarily made up of government-issued sukuk and bonds, with limited participation from corporations and financial institutions.

This is also reflected in the fact that as of the first three months of 2025, Bahrain’s Islamic finance industry was valued at over $80 billion, with Islamic banking assets making up 78 percent, sukuk accounting for 19.2 percent, and the remaining 2.8 percent coming from Shariah-compliant investment funds and takaful firms.

The newly issued Fitch statement said: “Sukuk are substantial to Bahrain’s DCM (debt capital markets), comprising 32.5 percent of DCM outstanding (all currencies) as of end-1Q25 … In 2024, sukuk issuances grew by 36.2 percent yoy (year-over-year), with sovereign issuers representing about 90 percent of Bahrain’s sukuk issuances.”

It added: “Bahrain has notable access to the global DCM, with US dollar-denominated DCM comprising about 70 percent of the total, and dollar-denominated sukuk comprising nearly 90 percent of sukuk outstanding. The anticipated lower oil prices … upcoming government debt maturities and sizeable investors, including Bahraini and other GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) Islamic banks, could encourage sukuk issuance.”

The statement further indicated that the agency rates 80 percent of the country’s US dollar sukuk outstanding as of the end of the first quarter of 2025, with 94.6 percent in the “B” rating category and 5.4 percent in the “BB” rating category.

It further disclosed that most sukuk issuers carry negative outlooks, reflecting Fitch’s downgrade of Bahrain’s outlook from stable to negative in February. The country has maintained its payment record on sukuk and bonds, with only one issuer launching ESG sukuk and no ESG bonds issued from the country.

“Bahrain continues to host Islamic finance industry setting bodies like the AAOIFI (Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions) and IIFM (International Islamic Financial Market). The draft AAOIFI Shariah Standard 62 has had no impact on Bahraini Islamic banks’ or sukuk ratings so far. However, there is a lack of clarity around the standard’s final scope and implementation,” the statement said.

It added that in the first quarter of 2025, Bahraini Islamic banks’ domestic assets saw an annual rise of 7.5 percent, outpacing conventional banks’ 3.4 percent. 

They also increased their share of domestic banking assets to 41.4 percent in what was a 1 percentage point rise from the same quarter of 2024.

Fitch said this was partly due to Ahli United Bank’s conversion to an Islamic bank. 

Islamic banks’ foreign assets decreased by 7.6 percent, while conventional banks’ increased by 6 percent, reducing the former’s share of total industry assets to 25.4 percent from 26.1 percent in the first quarter of 2024.

The Central Bank of Bahrain has introduced a draft netting law that includes Islamic derivatives, sukuk, digital asset derivatives, and carbon credit derivatives under qualified financial contracts — aimed at strengthening market participants’ confidence.

In June 2024, the CBB also launched a Shariah-compliant commodity Murabaha facility to help Islamic banks better manage surplus liquidity.

Bahrain’s Islamic finance projections come as other countries in the region also report relatively strong performance in the sector.

Earlier this month, a report from Qatar-based Bait Al Mashura Finance Consultations showed that Qatar’s Islamic finance sector continued its upward trajectory in 2024, with total assets rising 4.1 percent year on year to 683 billion Qatari riyals ($187.5 billion). 

The analysis showed at the time that Islamic banks held the largest share, with 87.4 percent of total Islamic finance assets.

In April, S&P Global Ratings said in its outlook report that Saudi Arabia is poised to play a key role in propelling the growth of the global Islamic finance industry in 2025, underpinned by non-oil economic expansion and robust sukuk issuance, according to a new analysis.   

The Kingdom’s banking system growth, supported by Vision 2030 initiatives, is expected to contribute significantly to the expansion of Islamic banking assets next year, the S&P report said at the time.