ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Market witnessed a range-bound session today, Tuesday, with the index fluctuating within a narrow band amid uncertainty surrounding the budget announcement. 

Pakistan will unveil its annual federal budget for the coming fiscal year on Tuesday evening, seeking to kickstart growth while finding resources for an expected hike in defense expenditure following a military conflict with India last month, the worst between the nuclear-armed neighbors in decades. 

Islamabad will also have to contend with remaining within the discipline of its International Monetary Fund program and the uncertainty from new trade tariffs being imposed by the United States, its biggest export market.

“The index recorded an intraday high of 970 points and a low of 51 points, eventually closing at 122,024 — gaining 383 points or 0.32 percent,” brokerage house Topline Securities said in its daily market review. 

“Market participation remained healthy, with total traded volume reaching 591 million shares and a traded value of PKR 21 billion.”

Media reports say the government is likely to present a 17.6 trillion rupee ($62.45 billion) budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1, down 6.7 percent from this fiscal year. It has projected a fiscal deficit of 4.8 percent of GDP, against a targeted 5.9 percent deficit in 2024-25, the reports say.

Analysts said they expect an increase of around 20 percent in the defense budget, likely offset by cuts in development spending.

Pakistan allocated 2.1 trillion Pakistani rupees($7.45 billion) for defense in the outgoing fiscal year, including $2 billion for equipment and other assets. An additional 563 billion rupees ($1.99 billion) was set aside for military pensions, which are not counted within the official defense budget.

The government of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has projected 4.2 percent economic growth in 2025-26, saying it has steadied the economy, which had looked at risk of defaulting on its debts as recently as 2023. Growth this fiscal year is likely to be 2.7 percent, against an initial target of 3.6 percent set in the budget last year.

Pakistan’s growth lags far behind the region. In 2024, South Asian countries grew by an average of 5.8 percent and 6.0 percent growth is expected in 2025, according to the Asian Development Bank.

With inputs from Reuters