Pakistan FY26 budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines — analysis

Pakistan Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb (3R) speaks during a meeting with the visiting IMF delegation, led by Jihad Azour (4L), at the Finance Division in Islamabad on May 21, 2025. (Photo courtesy: Handout/Finance Ministry)
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Updated 22 May 2025
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Pakistan FY26 budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines — analysis

  • Islamabad is currently holding budget talks with the IMF, likely to conclude this week
  • Government has committed to fiscal consolidation in FY26 budget to ensure debt sustainability

KARACHI: Pakistan will continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines and bring untaxed and low tax areas into the tax net as it announces its federal budget for fiscal year 2025-26 next month, a top Pakistani brokerage house said in a budget review

Islamabad is currently holding budget talks with the IMF, which earlier this month approved a loan program review for Pakistan, unlocking a $1 billion payment which the State Bank of Pakistan said had been received. A fresh $1.4 billion loan was also approved under the IMF’s climate resilience fund.

“We expect this budget to continue fiscal consolidation, focus on IMF guidelines and bring untaxed/low tax areas in tax net,” Topline Securities said in a budget review.

The brokerage house said the government had committed with the IMF to continue with fiscal consolidation in the FY26 budget to ensure debt sustainability.

“The government targets primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP (vs. 2.0-2.1% of GDP in FY25), a surplus for the third consecutive year after two decades. The government has also committed to use any windfall dividend expected from the central bank over and above 1% of GDP to retire debt,” the review said.

The analysis predicted the Federal Board of Revenue’s FY26 tax revenue growth target could be the lowest in six years.

“FBR revenue target is expected at Rs14.1-14.3 trillion, up 16-18% YoY, which will be the lowest percent growth in the last 6 years,” it said.

The FBR has achieved a five-year revenue Compound Annual Growth Rate of 25% from FY21-25.

“We believe, out of this required 16-18% growth, approximately 12% would be achieved through autonomous growth driven by real GDP growth of 3.6% and inflation of 7.7%. The remaining 4-5% growth translates into additional tax measures of Rs500-600 billion,” the analysis estimated.

Revenue measures expected include a change in the GST calculation price of sugar, the likely introduction of taxes on pension, retailers and wholesalers and a likely increase in federal excise duty on cigarettes, fertilizer products and pesticides by 500bps. A tax on the income of freelancers, vloggers and YouTubers is also expected.

“Government is expected to announce some relief measures namely (1) extension in exemption limit on salary or reduction of tax rate by 2.5% for all salary brackets, (2) rationalization of duties on trade, (3) likely housing finance subsidy, (4) inflation adjustment in minimum salary and unconditional cash transfer, and (5) some rationalization in super tax,” the analysis said.

It said the government would reportedly set a GDP growth target of 3.5-4.5% “while we expect GDP growth target for FY26 at 3.5-4.0% led by services.”

The analysis predicted the budget was likely to be neutral for the stock market in the short-term, neutral to positive for cement, steel, oil and gas, consumers, and independent power producers, and neutral for oil marketing firms, IT, banks, pharma, autos and textile.

Pakistan’s 37-month $7 billion IMF loan program, approved on Sept. 25, 2024, aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth. Key priorities include entrenching macroeconomic sustainability through implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening of the tax base; advancing reforms to strengthen competition and raise productivity and competitiveness; reforming state-owned enterprises and improving public service provision and energy sector viability; and building climate resilience.

Highlighting progress in Pakistani policies to stabilize the economy, the IMF said earlier this month when it approved the latest tranche that Pakistan’s fiscal performance had been strong, with a primary surplus of 2.0% of GDP achieved in the first half of FY25, keeping Pakistan on track to meet the end-FY25 target of 2.1% of GDP.

“Inflation fell to a historic low of 0.3% in April, and progress on disinflation and steadier domestic and external conditions, have allowed the State Bank of Pakistan to cut the policy rate by a total of 1100 bps since June 2025,” the IMF added.

“Gross reserves stood at $10.3 billion at end-April, up from $9.4 billion in August 2024, and are projected to reach $13.9 billion by end-June 2025 and continue to be rebuilt over the medium term.”


EU imposes measures to curb ethanol imports from Pakistan

Updated 20 June 2025
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EU imposes measures to curb ethanol imports from Pakistan

  • Pakistan became the EU’s top source of non-fuel ethanol in 2024, supplying over a quarter of total imports
  • EU ethanol producers welcomed the new two-year measure, though many had hoped for a three-year term

PARIS: The European Commission has ended tariff preferences for non-fuel ethanol imports from Pakistan, answering EU ethanol makers’ calls that a surge in cheap imports from the Asian country was pressuring prices and disturbing markets.

Last year, ethanol imports from Pakistan accounted for more than a quarter of all non-fuel ethanol imports, making Pakistan the largest source of imports to the EU, the Commission said in its decision published in the EU’s Official Journal on Friday.

The rise in total ethanol imports has been lasting for several years with EU customs data showing imports of non-fuel ethanol into the EU nearly doubling between 2021 and 2024 to reach 726,000 metric tons in 2024, from about 376,000 tons in 2021, it said.

Of this, Pakistani ethanol imports jumped by almost 300 percent to 393,590 tons between 2021 and 2022 and were still 244 percent above 2021 imports in 2023.

Meanwhile, EU non-fuel ethanol output dropped. Last year it was 8 percent lower than in 2021, it said.

The data and information available showed a coincidence in time between the evolution of imports from Pakistan and the serious disturbance to Union markets, the Commission said.

“The Commission considers that there is evidence of a serious disturbance in the Union market for non-fuel ethanol, characterised by a significant increase in imports at significantly lower prices compared to Union producers and a decline in Union production,” it said.

EU ethanol makers welcomed the move, set to last two years, although they had hoped for three-year duration and said the fact it did not include ethanol used in fuel raised concerns over potential circumvention.


Pakistan reports new polio case in northwest, raising 2025 tally to 12

Updated 20 June 2025
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Pakistan reports new polio case in northwest, raising 2025 tally to 12

  • Pakistan and Afghanistan remain the only countries where polio is still endemic
  • Pakistan reported 74 cases in 2024, raising alarm over a possible resurgence

KARACHI: Pakistan’s polio eradication program on Friday said a new wild poliovirus case had been detected in the country’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, bringing the total tally of 2025 cases to 12.

Polio is a paralyzing disease with no cure, making prevention through vaccination critical. Multiple doses of the oral polio vaccine, along with the completion of the routine immunization schedule for all children, are essential to build strong immunity against the virus.

The country conducted three nationwide vaccination campaigns in February, April and May, aiming to immunize around 45 million children across Pakistan with the support of over 400,000 frontline workers including 225,000 women vaccinators.

“The Regional Reference Laboratory for Polio Eradication at the National Institute of Health, Islamabad, has confirmed a new case of wild poliovirus in District Bannu, South Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,” the body said in a statement.

“The 33-month-old male child from Union Council Shamsikhel, District Bannu is the sixth case of polio reported from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa this year.”

Pakistan has reported 12 polio cases so far this year, including six from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, four from the southern Sindh province and one each from the populous Punjab province and the northern Gilgit-Baltistan region.

Pakistan, one of the last two countries where polio remains endemic along with Afghanistan, has made significant progress in curbing the virus, with annual cases dropping from around 20,000 in the early 1990s to just eight in 2018.

However, the country reported an alarmingly high number of 74 cases in 2024, after six in 2023 and only one in 2021.

Health Minister Mustafa Kamal on Thursday claimed that Pakistan has recorded a 99 percent decline in polio cases, as he urged global vaccine organization Gavi to invest more in efforts to “train and retain” vaccinators.

Pakistan launched its polio eradication program in 1994, but its efforts have repeatedly been hindered by widespread vaccine misinformation and resistance from hard-line religious groups who claim immunization campaigns are a Western conspiracy to sterilize Muslim children or a front for espionage.

Militant groups have also targeted polio workers and police officials providing them security, often with deadly attacks that have hampered vaccination drives, particularly in the country’s remote and conflict-prone regions.


Pakistan beat France 3-2 in penalty shootouts to reach FIH Hockey Nations Cup final

Updated 20 June 2025
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Pakistan beat France 3-2 in penalty shootouts to reach FIH Hockey Nations Cup final

  • PM Shehbaz Sharif congratulates team on their win, paying tribute to players and the management
  • Pakistan boasts proud hockey legacy by winning three Olympic gold medals and four World Cup titles

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s national hockey team advanced to the FIH Men’s Nations Cup final in Malaysia after defeating France 3-2 in penalty shootouts, the International Hockey Federation said on Friday.

The FIH Men’s Nations Cup is being played in Kuala Lumpur from June 15 to 21 at the National Hockey Stadium that brought together eight top-ranked teams competing with each other.

“Pakistan edge France to make it to their first FIH Hockey Men’s Nations Cup final,” International Hockey Federation said in a post on X.

“Excellent goals in the second half followed by amazing goalkeeping in the shootout,” it continued, “This is Pakistan’s first FIH final in more than a decade.”

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praised and congratulated the Pakistan hockey team on their victory, paying tribute to the players and team management.

“The national hockey team delivered an outstanding performance throughout the tournament,” he added. “The team has made the nation proud and won our hearts.”

Sharif said he would also pray for Pakistan’s victory in the final scheduled for June 21, expressing hope that the country will soon regain its lost glory in the field of hockey.

Pakistan will play the winner of the second semifinal between New Zealand and South Korea.

Hockey is Pakistan’s national sport.

The national team boasts a proud legacy with three Olympic gold medals in 1960, 1968 and 1984 along with four World Cup titles in 1971, 1978, 1982 and 1994.

Hockey in Pakistan has faced a sharp decline in recent decades due to administrative challenges, underinvestment and inadequate infrastructure.

Renewed efforts are underway to revive the game with increased government support, youth development initiatives and greater international engagement aimed at restoring Pakistan’s former glory in the sport.


Pakistan PM orders expansion of national shipping fleet to cut $4 billion trade cost

Updated 20 June 2025
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Pakistan PM orders expansion of national shipping fleet to cut $4 billion trade cost

  • Shehbaz Sharif directs national shipping authority to submit plan to reduce freight burden
  • Pakistan depends on foreign carriers due to a very limited fleet of government vessels

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday directed authorities to lease new ships to expand the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation’s (PNSC) fleet, aiming to reduce the $4 billion annual foreign exchange burden on sea-based trade.

The directive comes as Pakistan looks to bolster its maritime trade capacity and reduce reliance on foreign shipping lines, which officials say significantly contributes to the country’s widening trade deficit and puts pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

Pakistan’s sea trade plays a vital role in its economy, with over 90 percent of the country’s imports and exports transported by sea.

“The prime minister directed that ships be acquired on lease to expand the fleet of the PNSC,” the PM Office said in a statement following a meeting on PNSC affairs chaired by Sharif.

“He noted that due to the limited number of ships in the PNSC fleet, the national exchequer incurs a loss of $4 billion annually in foreign exchange on sea-based trade.”

Sharif instructed authorities to present a strategy within two weeks for the PNSC to eliminate this burden on the national treasury on account of freight charges.

The development comes as Pakistan plans to enhance its maritime trade with other countries, including the East African Community, and establish direct sea links with Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Somalia, Burundi, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

In February, Pakistan and Bangladesh also decided to begin passenger and cargo shipping services between the two countries.

The PNSC inducted two $60 million Aframax oil tankers in 2019 to strengthen its oil transportation fleet.

Pakistan also regularly collaborates with its counterparts from various parts of the world to ensure illicit activities such as smuggling, drug trafficking, and piracy are kept in check.


Pakistan PM urges diplomacy to end Iran-Israel conflict in call with US secretary of state

Updated 20 June 2025
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Pakistan PM urges diplomacy to end Iran-Israel conflict in call with US secretary of state

  • Sharif says Pakistan is ready to play a ‘constructive role’ as Rubio acknowledges Islamabad’s ‘excellent ties with Iran’
  • The prime minister also reaffirms Pakistan’s willingness to engage in talks with India on all outstanding issues

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday emphasized the importance of “dialogue and diplomacy” to defuse the escalating military conflict between Iran and Israel during a phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in which both sides discussed a broad range of issues.

The phone call came amid continuing hostilities between Iran and Israel, which began after Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities last Friday, leading to the killing of several top commanders and nuclear scientists.

Iran responded with retaliatory missile strikes, causing significant damage inside Israel and raising fears of a broader regional conflict.

Israel’s attack came while Iran was engaged in negotiations with the United States over its nuclear program. Subsequently, Washington supported Israel’s action, saying Iran could not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

There has also been speculation the US could become more directly involved in the Israel-Iran conflict, though President Donald Trump’s administration has not announced how it plans to deal with the situation in the coming days.

“The situation in the Middle East, particularly the Iran-Israel crisis, was ... discussed [during the phone call], where the Prime Minister emphasized on the need to find a peaceful resolution to this grave crisis, through dialogue and diplomacy,” Sharif’s office said in a statement circulated after his conversation with Rubio.

“He stated that Pakistan was ready to play a constructive role in any effort for peace in the current situation, which was deeply worrying, not only for the region, but for the entire world,” the statement added.

Earlier this week, President Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, at the White House, where the unfolding Middle East crisis was also discussed.

The prime minister also referred to the “most cordial and productive” discussion between them in the conversation.

DIALOGUE WITH INDIA

During the call, Sharif also thanked Rubio for the US role in helping Pakistan and India reach a ceasefire understanding last month after a brief but intense four-day military standoff between the nuclear-armed rivals.

He appreciated President Trump’s “bold leadership” and Rubio’s “proactive diplomacy,” which he said had played a “pivotal role” in averting a major flareup.

He also maintained Trump’s recent positive remarks about Pakistan had created space for a more durable peace in South Asia, which, he noted, would only be possible through “meaningful dialogue” with India.

The Pakistani leader reaffirmed Islamabad’s “willingness for talks with India on all outstanding issues, including Jammu & Kashmir, the Indus Waters Treaty, trade and counterterrorism.”

Rubio, for his part, appreciated Pakistan’s resolve to uphold the ceasefire understanding with India and encouraged Islamabad to continue playing a role in regional stability, including through its “excellent ties with Iran.”

The two officials agreed that both countries must translate their talks into “tangible actions across all areas.”

COUNTERTERRORISM COOPERATION

They also discussed deepening security cooperation between their governments. Sharif reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to combating militant violence, particularly threats posed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other armed factions carrying out recent attacks in his country.

Washington and Islamabad have a history of intelligence-sharing and military cooperation in counterterrorism operations, particularly during the US-led war in Afghanistan.

Rubio acknowledged Pakistan’s efforts and assured continued American cooperation to counter “all such threats.”

Sharif pointed to other areas of potential collaboration, including trade, investment, energy, mining, rare earth metals and information technology while emphasizing the need to advance mutually beneficial cooperation across these sectors.

The Pakistani premier also stressed the importance of maintaining the positive momentum in bilateral ties through regular high-level engagement.

He reiterated his invitation to President Trump to visit Pakistan and expressed hope to meet him at the earliest opportunity.

Sharif also extended a formal invitation to Rubio, as the US secretary of state said he looked forward to enhancing cooperation across “all areas of shared interest.”