ISTANBUL: Delegations from Kyiv and Moscow are set to hold their first direct talks on the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine for more than three years.
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky has announced he will travel to Turkiye, while Russia’s Vladimir Putin indicated he will not attend the talks.
Despite the flurry of diplomacy and US President Donald Trump’s call for a swift end to the fighting, Moscow and Kyiv’s demands appear to be far apart.
Russia has repeatedly demanded to keep the territory in southern and eastern Ukraine that it occupies and for Kyiv to cede even more land.
Moscow in 2022 annexed four Ukrainian regions — Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — despite not having full control over them.
Russia also annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and has held it ever since.
President Vladimir Putin last year demanded Ukraine pull its forces out of parts of those regions that its army still controls as a prerequisite to any peace settlement.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said recognition of Moscow’s ownership of these territories was “imperative” for any negotiations.
Kyiv has said it will never recognize its occupied territories, including Crimea, as Russian.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Kyiv may be forced to try to secure their return through diplomatic means — effectively conceding that Russia could maintain control over some land in any peace deal.
Russia has also demanded that Ukraine be barred from joining the NATO military alliance and has repeatedly said it wants Zelensky removed from office.
Russia had intended to topple Zelensky when it launched its invasion in 2022, with Putin calling in a televised address for Ukraine’s generals to oust him in a coup d’etat and then open talks with Moscow.
Putin in March floated the idea of Ukraine being put under a UN-backed “temporary administration,” refreshing his call to essentially remove Zelensky.
Russian officials have throughout the war called for the “de-militarization” and “de-Nazification” of Ukraine — casting Kyiv as a neo-Nazi “regime.”
Kyiv, the West and independent experts have rejected those narratives.
Russia has also sought at times to limit the size of Ukraine’s army, wants Ukraine to be declared a neutral state and for Western countries to stop supplying it weapons.
Zelensky has for months been calling for “security guarantees” for Ukraine to stop Russia invading again.
His top demand would be for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO, or for Ukraine to fall under the military alliance’s Article Five collective defense term.
Trump has however, dismissed the possibility of Ukraine joining the bloc and Russia says NATO membership would be “unacceptable.”
Instead, Kyiv is pushing for some other form of Western military commitment that would deter Moscow.
Britain and France are leading discussions about a possible European troop deployment to enforce any ceasefire, among a group of countries dubbed the “coalition of the willing.”
But Zelensky and Kyiv still want Washington to back-up any “security guarantee.”
Moscow has said it would not accept troops from NATO countries being deployed to Ukraine in any capacity.
Zelensky wants an immediate, full and unconditional ceasefire to cover combat on air, sea and land.
He accepted a US proposal for that in March but Putin rejected it.
Putin has instead ordered two short “truces” — over Easter and to cover Russia’s May 9 Victory Day celebrations.
Air attacks dipped during the periods but Ukraine accused Moscow of violating both on hundreds of occasions.
In his late-night address from the Kremlin calling for the direct Russia-Ukraine talks, Putin said he did not “exclude” that some kind of ceasefire could be agreed between the sides.
Ukraine peace talks: What are Kyiv and Moscow’s positions?
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Ukraine peace talks: What are Kyiv and Moscow’s positions?
Progress for Ukraine talks in Paris uncertain with US focus shifting to Venezuela
- Ukraine’s allies are meeting in Paris to discuss security guarantees after a potential ceasefire with Russia. The Trump administration’s focus on Venezuela could complicate progress
- France and the UK lead efforts to strengthen post-ceasefire defenses for Ukraine, possibly with European forces
PARIS: Ukraine’s allies are meeting Tuesday in Paris for key talks that could help determine the country’s security after a potential ceasefire with Russia. But prospects for progress are uncertain with the Trump administration’s focus shifting to Venezuela.
Before the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, French President Emmanuel Macron had expressed optimism about the latest gathering of so-called “coalition of the willing” nations. For months, they have been exploring how to deter any future Russian aggression should it agree to stop fighting Ukraine.
In a Dec. 31 address, Macron said that allies would “make concrete commitments” at the summit “to protect Ukraine and ensure a just and lasting peace.”
Macron’s office said Tuesday’s meeting will gather an unprecedented number of officials attending in person, with 35 participants including 27 heads of state and government. The US will be represented by President Donald Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Macron’s office said the US delegation was initially set to be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who changed his plans for reasons related to the military intervention in Venezuela.
Participants seek concrete outcomes on five key priorities once fighting ends: ways to monitor a ceasefire; support for Ukraine’s armed forces; deployment of a multinational force on land, at sea and in the air; commitments in case there’s another Russian aggression; and long-term defense cooperation with Ukraine.
But whether that’s still achievable Tuesday isn’t so clear now, as Trump deals with the aftermath of his decision to effect leadership change in Venezuela.
Ukraine seeks firm guarantees from Washington of military and other support seen as crucial to securing similar commitments from other allies. Kyiv has been wary of any ceasefire that it fears could provide time for Russia to regroup and attack again.
Recent progress in talks
Before the US military operation targeting Maduro, Witkoff had indicated progress in talks about protecting and reassuring Ukraine.
In a Dec. 31 post, Witkoff tweeted that “productive” discussions with him, Rubio, and Kushner on the US side and, on the other, national security advisers of Britain, France, Germany and Ukraine had focused on “strengthening security guarantees and developing effective deconfliction mechanisms to help end the war and ensure it does not restart.”
France, which with the United Kingdom has coordinated the monthslong, multination effort to shore up a ceasefire, has only given broad-brush details about the plan’s scope. It says Ukraine’s first line of defense against a Russian resumption of war would be the Ukrainian military and that the coalition intends to strengthen it with training, weaponry and other support.
Macron has also spoken of European forces potentially being deployed away from Ukraine’s front lines to help deter future Russian aggression.
Important details unfinalized
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said during the weekend that potential European troop deployments still face hurdles, important details remain unfinalized, and “not everyone is ready” to commit forces.
He noted that many countries would need approval from parliament even if leaders agreed to military support for Ukraine. But he recognized that support could come in forms other than troops, such as “through weapons, technologies and intelligence.”
Zelensky said that post-ceasefire deployments in Ukraine by Britain and France, Western Europe’s only nuclear-armed nations, would be “essential” because some other coalition members ”cannot provide military assistance in the form of troops, but they do provide support through sanctions, financial assistance, humanitarian aid and so on.”
“Speaking frankly as president, even the very existence of the coalition depends on whether certain countries are ready to step up their presence,” Zelensky said. “If they are not ready at all, then it is not really a ‘coalition of the willing.’”
