Pakistan’s average inflation to remain between 5.5-7.5% during FY25— central bank

A labour carries water bottles on a hand cart past the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) building as index plummeted amid a global market crash, in Karachi on April 7, 2025. (AFP)
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Updated 29 April 2025
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Pakistan’s average inflation to remain between 5.5-7.5% during FY25— central bank

  • Pakistan’s real GDP growth rate expected to hover between 2.5-3.5%, says State Bank of Pakistan 
  • Central bank says “strong momentum” in remittances, exports to continue outpacing increase in imports 

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s average inflation is expected to remain in the 5.5-7.5% range in the fiscal year ending June 2025, the country’s central bank said in its half-yearly economic report this week, stating that its real GDP growth is expected to hover between 2.5-3.5%.

Pakistan’s economy has improved in recent months, supported by declining inflation, which caused the central bank to reduce its policy rate to 12% after a series of cuts totaling 1,000 basis points since June 2024.

In a report titled “The State of Pakistan’s Economy, Half Year Report FY25” released on Monday, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) noted that inflationary pressures have receded notably, with headline inflation reaching a multi-decade low of 0.7% by March 2025.

“In view of steeper-than-anticipated disinflation, combined with an adequately tight monetary policy stance, continued fiscal consolidation and an ease in global commodity prices, the SBP projects average inflation for FY25 to fall in the range of 5.5–7.5 percent,” the SBP said in a press release.

Pakistan’s inflation rate rose to a record high of 38% in May 2023 on account of surging food and fuel costs. This was caused by Islamabad’s move to withdraw energy and fuel subsidies under a deal agreed with the International Monetary Fund in exchange for a financial bailout package.

The report said Pakistan’s current account balance is projected to remain in the range of -0.5 to 0.5 percent of the GDP. The central bank said it expects a “strong momentum” in foreign remittances and exports to continue outpacing the increase in imports. 

“This is expected to cushion against lower financial inflows and help strengthen external buffers,” the report said. “The SBP’s projection for real GDP growth remains unchanged in the range of 2.5–3.5 percent.”

The report highlighted downside risks in the form of additional fiscal consolidation and less-than-expected wheat harvests. It pointed out risks to the medium-term outlook, largely stemming from global trade disruptions and related commodity price volatility in light of Washington’s tariffs, changing geo-political situations, adjustments in administered energy prices and spillover of movements in international currencies on the local currency. 


Pakistan highlights Gwadar transshipment role as shipping routes face disruption over regional tensions

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Pakistan highlights Gwadar transshipment role as shipping routes face disruption over regional tensions

  • Pakistani ports possess “untapped potential” to attract global shipping lines for transshipment operations, says minister
  • Pakistan eyes leveraging Gwadar as regional transshipment hub as Iran’s closure of Strait of Hormuz disrupts global maritime trade

KARACHI: Pakistan’s Maritime Affairs Minister Junaid Anwar Chaudhry on Thursday highlighted the importance of the port city of Gwadar’s transshipment role as major shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, face disruption due to Iran’s ongoing conflict with the US and Israel in the Gulf. 

The meeting takes place as Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that lies between it and Oman. It is one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, with roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies passing through it. Iran has vowed it will attack any ship that enters the strait, causing energy prices to rise sharply on Monday amid disruptions to tanker traffic in the waterway.

Gwadar is a deep-sea port in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province that lies close to the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani officials have in the past highlighted Gwadar’s geostrategic position as the shortest trade route to the Gulf and Central Asia, stressing that it has the potential to become a regional transshipment hub.

Chaudhry chaired a high-level meeting of government officials to assess emerging logistical challenges facing Pakistan’s trade, particularly in the energy sector, amid tensions in the Gulf. 

“Special focus was placed on fully leveraging the potential of Gwadar Port as a regional transshipment hub and positioning it as an alternative of regional instability,” Pakistan’s maritime affairs ministry said in a statement. 

The minister said Pakistani ports possessed “significant untapped potential” to attract international shipping lines for transshipment operations, noting that it could also ensure long-term sustainability and growth of the country’s maritime sector.

Participants of the meeting discussed measures to strengthen Pakistan’s position as a viable alternative transit and transshipment destination, as key waterways are affected by the disruption. 

The committee also reviewed proposals to amend relevant rules and regulations to facilitate international transshipment operations through on-dock and off-dock terminals.

The chairmen of the Port Qasim Authority, Karachi Port Trust and Gwadar Port Authority attended the meeting, briefing committee members on the current operational readiness of their ports. They spoke about the available capacity for container transshipment, bulk cargo handling and refueling services at Pakistani ports. 

The port in Gwadar is a central part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), under which Beijing has funneled tens of billions of dollars into massive transport, energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan.

Pakistan has long eyed the deep-sea port as a key asset that can help boost its trade with Central Asian states, the Gulf region and ensure the country earns valuable foreign exchange.