LISBON: Portugal’s general election campaign ends on Friday for a vote that Prime Minister Luis Montenegro is expected to win, but with no guarantee he can form a more stable government.
Montenegro’s center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition is tipped to win 34 percent of the ballot, ahead of the Socialist Party (PS) on 26 percent, according to a poll by the Portuguese Catholic University published by local media on Friday.
The upstart far-right Chega (“Enough“) party could take 19 percent of the vote — almost the same as it did in March 2024 elections — to consolidate its position as Portugal’s third political force and kingmaker.
Montenegro, as a result, risks finding himself again at the head of a minority government, caught between the PS, in power from 2015 to 2024, and Chega, with which he has refused to govern.
“People are fed up with elections, people want stability,” the premier, a 52-year-old lawyer, said during a final rally in Lisbon as he urged voters to give him a stronger mandate this time around.
Sunday’s early election will be Portugal’s third in just over three years.
It was called in March after Montenegro lost a confidence vote in parliament following accusations against him of conflicts of interest stemming from his consulting firm’s business.
As such, “staying in power would already be a good result” for the prime minister, who took a “calculated risk” in the hope of strengthening his parliamentary seat, political commentator Paula Espirito Santo told AFP.
Opinion polls appear to indicate an AD majority is unlikely but Montenegro could win the support of the Liberal Initiative party, which is predicted to secure 6.4 percent of the vote.


The PS candidate, Pedro Nuno Santos, a 48-year-old economist, has accused Montenegro of having engineered the elections “to avoid explaining himself” about his consultancy firm to a parliamentary inquiry.
“We need a change, a prudent one that will guarantee the political stability which Luis Montenegro can no longer provide,” the Socialist candidate said at a final Lisbon rally on Friday.
Faced with the risk of persistent instability, analysts and voters criticized a political class out of touch with voters who are unenthused by the prospect of another ballot.
“I’ve really had enough of all these political games. They don’t do anything for us,” said Maria Pereira, a 53-year-old saleswoman in a working-class district of Lisbon.
“Normally I vote for the small parties but this time I’m not going to waste my time going to vote.”
But Paula Tomas, a 52-year-old dentist, said Montenegro had won her confidence.
“He has the ability to get things done, but he needs time,” she said at an AD rally, waving a white-and-orange ruling party flag.
Under the Socialist Party, Portugal became one of Europe’s most open countries, but Montenegro’s government has since strengthened immigration policy.
Between 2017 and 2024, the number of foreigners living in Portugal quadrupled, reaching about 15 percent of the total population.
Immigration and suspicions about the prime minister might be fertile ground for the far right.
But Chega has also faced embarrassment, including claims that one of its lawmakers in the Azores stole luggage from airport carousels.
Its campaign was interrupted on Tuesday and Thursday when its president, 42-year-old former football commentator Andre Ventura, fell ill while campaigning and was rushed to hospital both times.
He was resting and will not longer appear at the party’s final rally. Instead he released a video message where he once again called for “an end to corruption and uncontrolled immigration.”
All political campaigning has to stop at midnight (2300 GMT Friday) before Sunday’s poll.

WARSAW: Poles are voting Sunday in a presidential election at a time of heightened security concerns stemming from the ongoing war in neighboring Ukraine and growing worry that the US commitment to Europe’s security could be weakening under President Donald Trump.
The top two front-runners are Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a liberal allied with Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian with no prior political experience who is supported by the national conservative Law and Justice party.
Recent opinion polls show Trzaskowski with around 30 percent support and Nawrocki in the mid-20s. A second round between the two is widely expected to take place on June 1.
The election is also a test of the strength of other forces, including the far right.
Sławomir Mentzen, a hard-right candidate who blends populist MAGA rhetoric with libertarian economics and a critical stance toward the European Union, has been polling in third place.
Ten other candidates are also on the ballot. With such a crowded field and a requirement that a candidate receive more than 50 percent of the vote to win outright, a second round seemed all but inevitable.
Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. (0500GMT) and close at 9 p.m. (1900GMT). Exit polls will be released when voting ends, with results expected by Tuesday, possibly Monday.
Polish authorities have reported attempts at foreign interference during the campaign, including denial-of-service attacks targeting parties in Tusk’s coalition on Friday and allegations by a state research institute that political ads on Facebook were funded from abroad.
Although Poland’s prime minister and parliament hold primary authority over domestic policy, the presidency carries substantial power. The president serves as commander of the armed forces, plays a role in foreign and security policy, and can veto legislation.
The conservative outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, has repeatedly used that power over more than the past year to hamper Tusk’s agenda, for example blocking ambassadorial nominations and using his veto power to resist reversing judicial and media changes made during Law and Justice’s time in power from 2015 to late 2023.
A Trzaskowski victory could be expected to end such a standoff. He has pledged to support reforms to the courts and public media, both of which critics say were politicized under Law and Justice. Tusk’s opponents say he has also politicized public media.
Nawrocki, who leads a state historical institute, has positioned himself as a defender of conservative values and national sovereignty.