The science behind the powerful earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand

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Updated 30 March 2025
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The science behind the powerful earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand

  • Myanmar lies on boundary between two tectonic plates, is one of world’s most seismically active countries
  • Friday’s event was “probably the biggest” to hit Myanmar’s mainland in three quarters of a century, experts said 

SINGAPORE: A powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.7 centered in the Sagaing region near the Myanmar city of Mandalay caused extensive damage in that country and also shook neighboring Thailand on Friday.

How vulnerable is Myanmar to earthquakes?

Myanmar lies on the boundary between two tectonic plates and is one of the world’s most seismically active countries, although large and destructive earthquakes have been relatively rare in the Sagaing region.

“The plate boundary between the India Plate and Eurasia Plate runs approximately north-south, cutting through the middle of the country,” said Joanna Faure Walker, a professor and earthquake expert at University College London.
She said the plates move past each other horizontally at different speeds. While this causes “strike slip” quakes that are normally less powerful than those seen in “subduction zones” like Sumatra, where one plate slides under another, they can still reach magnitudes of 7 to 8.

Why was Friday’s quake so damaging?
Sagaing has been hit by several quakes in recent years, with a 6.8 magnitude event causing at least 26 deaths and dozens of injuries in late 2012.
But Friday’s event was “probably the biggest” to hit Myanmar’s mainland in three quarters of a century, said Bill McGuire, another earthquake expert at UCL.
Roger Musson, honorary research fellow at the British Geological Survey, told Reuters that the shallow depth of the quake meant the damage would be more severe. The quake’s epicenter was at a depth of just 10 km (6.2 miles), according to the United States Geological Survey.
“This is very damaging because it has occurred at a shallow depth, so the shockwaves are not dissipated as they go from the focus of the earthquake up to the surface. The buildings received the full force of the shaking.”
“It’s important not to be focused on epicenters because the seismic waves don’t radiate out from the epicenter — they radiate out from the whole line of the fault,” he added.

How prepared was Myanmar?

The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program said on Friday that fatalities could be between 10,000 and 100,000 people, and the economic impact could be as high as 70 percent of Myanmar’s GDP.
Musson said such forecasts are based on data from past earthquakes and on Myanmar’s size, location and overall quake readiness.
The relative rarity of large seismic events in the Sagaing region — which is close to heavily populated Mandalay — means that infrastructure had not been built to withstand them. That means the damage could end up being far worse.
Musson said that the last major quake to hit the region was in 1956, and homes are unlikely to have been built to withstand seismic forces as powerful as those that hit on Friday.
“Most of the seismicity in Myanmar is further to the west whereas this is running down the center of the country,” he said.
 


Uganda’s presidential election experiences hours of delays at some polling stations

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Uganda’s presidential election experiences hours of delays at some polling stations

  • Some polling stations remained closed for up to four hours after the scheduled 7 a.m. start time due to “technical challenges“
  • The East African country of roughly 45 million people has 21.6 million registered voters

KAMPALA, Uganda: Uganda’s presidential election was plagued by widespread delays Thursday in addition to a days-long Internet shutdown that has been criticized as an anti-democratic tactic in a country where the president has held office since 1986.
Some polling stations remained closed for up to four hours after the scheduled 7 a.m. start time due to “technical challenges,” according to the nation’s electoral commission, which asked polling officers to use paper registration records to ensure the difficulties did not “disenfranchise any voter.”
President Yoweri Museveni, 81, faces seven other candidates, including Robert Kyagulanyi, a musician-turned-politician best known as Bobi Wine, who is calling for political change.
The East African country of roughly 45 million people has 21.6 million registered voters. Polls are expected to close at 4 p.m. Thursday, according to the electoral commission. Results are constitutionally required to be announced in 48 hours.
Impatient crowds gathered outside polling stations expressing concerns over the delays Thursday morning. Umaru Mutyaba, a polling agent for a parliamentary candidate, said it was “frustrating” to be waiting outside a station in the capital Kampala.
“We can’t be standing here waiting to vote as if we have nothing else to do,” he said.
Wine alleged there was electoral fraud occurring, noting that biometric voter identification machines were not working at polling places and claiming there was “ballot stuffing.”
“Our leaders, including Deputy President for Western Region, arrested. Many of our polling agents and supervisors abducted, and others chased off polling stations,” Wine wrote in a post on social media platform X.
Museveni told journalists he was notfied biometric machines were inoperable at some stations and he supported the electoral body’s decision to revert to paper registration records. He did not comment on the allegation of fraud.
Ssemujju Nganda, a prominent opposition figure and lawmaker seeking reelection in Kira municipality, told The Associated Press he had been waiting in line to vote for three hours.
Nganda also noted biometric machines were malfunctioning, in addition to the late arrival of balloting materials, and predicted the delays likely would lead to apathy and low turnout in urban areas where the opposition has substantial support.
“It’s going to be chaos,” he said Thursday morning.
Nicholas Sengoba, an independent analyst and newspaper columnist, said delays to the start of voting in urban, opposition areas favored the ruling party.
Museveni serving Africa’s third-longest presidential term
Uganda has not witnessed a peaceful transfer of presidential power since independence from British colonial rule six decades ago.
Museveni has served the third-longest term of any African leader and is seeking to extend his rule into a fifth decade. Some critics say removing him through elections remains difficult, but the aging president’s authority has become increasingly dependent on the military led by his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
Museveni and Wine are reprising their rivalry from the previous election in 2021, when Wine appealed to mostly young people in urban areas. With voter turnout of 59 percent, Wine secured 35 percent of the ballots against Museveni’s 58 percent, the president’s smallest vote share since his first electoral campaign three decades ago.
The lead-up to Thursday’s election produced concerns about transparency, the possibility of hereditary rule, military interference and opposition strategies to prevent vote tampering at polling stations.
Uganda’s Internet was shut down Tuesday by the government communications agency, which cited misinformation, electoral fraud and incitement of violence. The shutdown has affected the public and disrupted critical sectors such as banking.
Heavy security deployed
There has been heavy security leading up to voting, including military units deployed on the streets this week.
Amnesty International said security forces are engaging in a “brutal campaign of repression,” citing a Nov. 28 opposition rally in eastern Uganda where the military blocked exits and opened fire on supporters, killing one person.
Museveni urged voters to come out in large numbers during his final rally Tuesday.
“You go and vote, anybody who tries to interfere with your freedom will be crushed. I am telling you this. We are ready to put an end to this indiscipline,” he said.
The national electoral commission chairperson, Simon Byabakama, urged tolerance among Ugandans as they vote.
“Let us keep the peace that we have,” Byabakama said late Wednesday. “Let us be civil. Let us be courteous. Let’s be tolerant. Even if you know that this person does not support (your) candidate, please give him or her room or opportunity to go and exercise his or her constitutional right.”
Authorities also suspended the activities of several civic groups during the campaign season. That Group, a prominent media watchdog, closed its office Wednesday after the interior ministry alleged in a letter that the group was involved in activities “prejudicial to the security and laws of Uganda.”
Veteran opposition figure Kizza Besigye, a four-time presidential candidate, remains in prison after he was charged with treason in February 2025.