LONDON: Tuesday could make or break Saudi Arabia’s quest for automatic qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Any result in Japan, the toughest fixture in Asia, as coach Herve Renard admitted, is a good one. A win, however would have belief surging among the Green Falcons and send a message to the other teams in their AFC qualifying group. Defeat would not be a disgrace but could be a blow that almost ends hopes of a top-two finish.
That 1-0 win over China last Thursday was not just welcome and needed, but put Saudi Arabia third in Group C with nine points, one behind Australia. Those two are likely going to be the ones fighting it out for that second automatic spot now that Japan has already qualified.
Missing out does not mean the end of the North American dream, but while some teams would welcome finishing third and fourth and then progressing to another stage of qualification, Saudi Arabia, seeking a seventh World Cup appearance, is not one of them.
There is some good news. Japan are through with 19 points from seven games. Coach Hajime Moriyasu has said that he will try to win the three remaining matches, and while there was never a suggestion that the Samurai Blue would take it easy, there is no doubt that the pressure is off and the intensity on the pitch and in the stands will not be quite as high. Japan do not need to win.
There may even be a little experimentation from Moriyasu as he takes a look at some of the other squad members. There are already fitness doubts over English Premier League star winger Kaoru Mitoma as well as Ayase Ueda and Hidemasa Morita. Any suggestion that Japan will be below strength would be welcomed by the visitors.
China could also lend a helping hand. Australia are a point ahead of the Saudis with a far superior goal difference after thrashing Indonesia 5-1, and take on Team Dragon in Hangzhou. After the action at Saitama Stadium finishes, whatever the result, fans back in Riyadh, Jeddah and elsewhere will be tuning in to the goings-on in China, willing the hosts to get a point or even three. It is not just about the points, but erasing Australia’s goal difference advantage. There may come a time when this becomes crucial.
How Japan set up and how Australia get on may be on the minds of fans, but the most important factor is how Saudi Arabia approach this game. Renard’s best result in charge was that 2-1 win over Argentina at the 2022 World Cup when the team played with courage and skill.
Noises coming out of the camp as they touched down in the east (that long journey could be a factor but there is nothing that can be done about that) is that the coaching staff want a slow start in Saitama to try to calm things down in the opening period of the game — the worst thing that could happen is Japan taking an early lead.
At some point, there has to be aggression and ambition. Going to Japan and defending deep for 90 minutes is unlikely to work. In eight games in 2024, the Blues scored 32 (including that 2-0 win in Jeddah). There were 34 scored in the eight before that including a 4-1 win over Germany in Germany.
Saudi Arabia have been practising attacks from wide positions, looking to get behind the hosts. The injury to Roma right-back Saud Abdulhamid, who made the goal last week, does not help in that regard. Midfielder Mohamed Kanno is another big miss, as is defender Hassan Kadesh, carried off against China.
That win in Riyadh was promising as well as deserved. The major criticism was that too many of the chances made were wasted but, after four previous qualifiers without a goal, at least the opportunities were there to begin with.
Salem Al-Dawsari was the man who made the difference once again and there is also good news in that midfielders Nasser Al-Dawsari and Musab Al-Juwayr look to be fit and ready.
Japan are not going to sit back, which will mean plenty of defending to do but also opportunities to attack. Just how well Saudi Arabia manage both will determine whether this goes down as a glorious result and a big step toward the 2026 World Cup, or something a little different.
