KARACHI: Stock investors have been trading cautiously since last week when an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission arrived in Pakistan to review the country’s economic performance under its reforms-oriented, $7 billion loan program, analysts said on Thursday.
Pakistan’s stocks turned green on Thursday after losing more than 300 points in the last three sessions, with the benchmark KSE-100 index gaining 0.9 percent to close at 115,094.23 points. The stocks, which have gained about 3 percent since March 3 when the IMF experts landed in the country, have been fluctuating and witnessed four bull-runs and as many bearish sessions.
While the IMF and the government remain tightlipped about what they are discussing behind the closed doors, local media reports claim that the two sides are not on the same page over issues relating to Pakistan’s revenue shortfall, debt sustainability, and the resolution of the country’s power sector debt. The central bank unexpectedly maintaining the interest rate at 12 percent this week is being seen as another negative for stocks investors.
“The stock market is jittery because of the IMF review along with other factors,” Sana Tawfik, head of research at Karachi-based Arif Habib Ltd., told Arab News.
She said the market was mainly reacting to news reports about the IMF expressing concern over Pakistan’s tax shortfall of around Rs600 billion ($2.1 billion) and rejecting the government’s plans to resolve the lingering circular debt that was expected to increase to as much as Rs1 trillion by June.
The IMF wants Pakistan to increase its tax-to-GDP ratio, which is the lowest in the region, to 13 percent by taxing incomes from agriculture, real estate and retail sectors. Pakistan, however, fell short of the IMF-backed tax collection target this year.
“There is a concern in the market that this tax shortfall may upset the review,” Tawfik said, adding that the selling pressure and a lack of a proper trigger were other drags on the stock index.
Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive officer at Arif Habib Commodities Ltd., said the issues being discussed with the IMF would have a “direct impact” on stocks, including energy, cement and even the cost of borrowing that is directly related to economic growth.
“Generally higher interest rates are negative for the stocks and we believe the IMF certainly does play a role in the central bank’s decisions,” Mehanti told Arab News.
Pakistan’s policymakers avoid squeezing the interest rate much at a time when the IMF is reviewing the release of its first tranche under the $7 billion program.
“The market expects IMF’s proposal may be growth negative owing to higher interest rates to check inflation risks, thin LSM (large-scale manufacturing) growth in case of a cut in the PSDP (public sector development program) or refusals of circular debt plans,” the commodity analyst said.
But Amjad Waheed, chief executive officer at the NBP Fund Management Ltd., held a different view and said the recent fluctuation looked more like a case of profit-taking as investors booked handsome profits during the last couple of years, when the stock market rose as much as 84 percent.
“The IMF talks are ongoing stable and as per routine. I haven’t heard of any tough conditions that the IMF is going to set,” said Waheed, who manages billions of rupees of investor savings.
“People have earned enough and some people now booking profit is normal. The market corrects a bit because of profit-taking.”
The fund manager said some investors might be selling their stocks as their expectation for a rate cut of as much as 1,500 basis points could not materialize because of Monday’s decision by the central bank.
“As an investor I am very conscious at the moment. I am holding on to my stocks. I am holding on to my investments. I am very careful with that,” Isra Ghous Rasool, a 22-year-old stock investor from Karachi, told Arab News in a recent interview.
IMF review talks keep stock investors jittery in Pakistan
https://arab.news/95y5d
IMF review talks keep stock investors jittery in Pakistan
- Pakistan stock market has seen four bullish runs and as many bearish sessions since an IMF team arrived in Pakistan this month
- Analysts says the talks with the IMF will have a ‘direct impact’ on stocks such as energy, cement and even the cost of borrowing
‘Look ahead or look up?’: Pakistan’s police face new challenge as militants take to drone warfare
- Officials say militants are using weapons and equipment left behind after allied forces withdrew from Afghanistan
- Police in northwest Pakistan say electronic jammers have helped repel more than 300 drone attacks since mid-2025
BANNU, Pakistan: On a quiet morning last July, Constable Hazrat Ali had just finished his prayers at the Miryan police station in Pakistan’s volatile northwest when the shouting began.
His colleagues in Bannu district spotted a small speck in the sky. Before Ali could take cover, an explosion tore through the compound behind him. It was not a mortar or a suicide vest, but an improvised explosive dropped from a drone.
“Now should we look ahead or look up [to sky]?” said Ali, who was wounded again in a second drone strike during an operation against militants last month. He still carries shrapnel scars on his back, hand and foot, physical reminders of how the battlefield has shifted upward.
For police in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, the fight against militancy has become a three-dimensional conflict. Pakistani officials say armed groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), are increasingly deploying commercial drones modified to drop explosives, alongside other weapons they say were acquired after the US military withdrawal from neighboring Afghanistan.
Security analysts say the trend mirrors a wider global pattern, where low-cost, commercially available drones are being repurposed by non-state actors from the Middle East to Eastern Europe, challenging traditional policing and counterinsurgency tactics.
The escalation comes as militant violence has surged across Pakistan. Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reported a 73 percent rise in combat-related deaths in 2025, with fatalities climbing to 3,387 from 1,950 a year earlier. Militants have increasingly shifted operations from northern tribal belts to southern KP districts such as Bannu, Lakki Marwat and Dera Ismail Khan.
“Bannu is an important town of southern KP, and we are feeling the heat,” said Sajjad Khan, the region’s police chief. “There has been an enormous increase in the number of incidents of terrorism… It is a mix of local militants and Afghan militants.”
In 2025 alone, Bannu police recorded 134 attacks on stations, checkpoints and personnel. At least 27 police officers were killed, while authorities say 53 militants died in the clashes. Many assaults involved coordinated, multi-pronged attacks using heavy weapons.
Drones have also added a new layer of danger. What began as reconnaissance tools have been weaponized with improvised devices that rely on gravity rather than guidance systems.
“Earlier, they used to drop [explosives] in bottles. After that, they started cutting pipes for this purpose,” said Jamshed Khan, head of the regional bomb disposal unit. “Now we have encountered a new type: a pistol hand grenade.”
When dropped from above, he explained, a metal pin ignites the charge on impact.
Deputy Superintendent of Police Raza Khan, who narrowly survived a drone strike during construction at a checkpoint, described devices packed with nails, bullets and metal fragments.
“They attach a shuttlecock-like piece on top. When they drop it from a height, its direction remains straight toward the ground,” he said.
TARGETING CIVILIANS
Officials say militants’ rapid adoption of drone technology has been fueled by access to equipment on informal markets, while police procurement remains slower.
“It is easy for militants to get such things,” Sajjad Khan said. “And for us, I mean, we have to go through certain process and procedures as per rules.”
That imbalance began to shift in mid-2025, when authorities deployed electronic anti-drone systems in the region. Before that, officers relied on snipers or improvised nets strung over police compounds.
“Initially, when we did not have that anti-drone system, their strikes were effective,” the police chief said, adding that more than 300 attempted drone attacks have since been repelled or electronically disrupted. “That was a decisive moment.”
Police say militants have also targeted civilians, killing nine people in drone attacks this year, often in communities accused of cooperating with authorities. Several police stations suffered structural damage.
Bannu’s location as a gateway between Pakistan and Afghanistan has made it a security flashpoint since colonial times. But officials say the aerial dimension of the conflict has placed unprecedented strain on local forces.
For constables like Hazrat Ali, new technology offers some protection, but resolve remains central.
“Nowadays, they have ammunition and all kinds of the most modern weapons. They also have large drones,” he said. “When we fight them, we fight with our courage and determination.”
