KARACHI: Most analysts predict a seventh consecutive rate cut by Pakistan’s central bank on Monday, amid the country’s first International Monetary Fund (IMF) review for its $7 billion bailout and near-decade low inflation.
Pakistan’s central bank’s current easing cycle, one of the most aggressive among emerging markets, follows a six-month series of rate cuts totalling 1000 basis points (bps), which brought the key rate down from a record high of 22 percent in June to 12 percent, with the latest 100 bps cut in January.
As Pakistan undergoes economic reforms mandated by the IMF program, it stands to secure additional funding from the global lender, pending the ongoing review.
The cash-strapped South Asian nation could unlock a tranche of funding if the ongoing review is approved, ahead of its annual budget presentation looming in June.
Inflation for the month of February clocked in at a near decade low of 1.5 percent, largely due to a high base a year-ago.
A Reuters survey of 14 analysts suggests that the central bank may further reduce rates, with a median forecast of a 50 bps cut.
Of the 10 analysts who expect a rate cut: three anticipate a 100 bps cut, one a 75 bps cut, and six a 50 bps cut. The remaining four analysts predict no change.
Most analysts predicting a rate cut believe the central bank will stop reductions when rates hit 10.5-11 percent, due to a potential inflation rise and anticipate a moderate rise in inflation from March to May.
Ahmad Mobeen, senior economist of S&P Global predicts inflation will “bottom out” in Q1, then gradually rise.
He anticipates a 6.1 percent average inflation for 2025. Despite the “sharp drop” in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), he notes that urban core inflation, indicative of ongoing price pressures, remains high at 7.8 percent.
“The S&P Global HBL Pakistan Manufacturing PMI also indicates rising input costs, pushing manufacturers to hike prices in February 2025 at the fastest pace since October 2024,” he said.
In the last policy meeting, the bank maintained its forecast of full-year GDP growth at 2.5 percent-3.5 percent and predicted faster growth would help boost the country’s previously struggling foreign exchange reserves.
“While GDP posted 0.9 percent growth in 1QFY25, large-scale manufacturing remains in negative territory, and production has yet to gain momentum. The transmission of lower rates to economic activity is yet to be seen,” said Sana Tawfik, head of research at Arif Habib Limited.
She added that the target is only possible if industrial activity picks up and agricultural output improves.
POLL: Pakistan eyes seventh straight rate cut amid decade low inflation, IMF review
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POLL: Pakistan eyes seventh straight rate cut amid decade low inflation, IMF review
- Pakistan follows a six-month series of rate cuts, which brought the key rate down from a record high of 22 percent in June to 12 percent in January
- As Pakistan undergoes economic reforms mandated under the IMF program, it stands to secure additional funding from the global lender
Pakistan says responding to Afghan ‘offensive operations’ after border fire as tensions escalate
- Afghan Taliban spokesperson says “large-scale offensive operations” launched against Pakistani military bases
- Pakistan says Afghan forces opened “unprovoked” fire across multiple sectors along shared border
ISLAMABAD: Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities said on Thursday they had launched “large-scale offensive operations” against Pakistani military bases and installations, prompting Pakistan to say its forces were responding to what it described as unprovoked fire along the shared border.
The escalation follows Islamabad’s weekend airstrikes targeting what it said were Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Daesh militant camps inside Afghanistan in response to a wave of recent bombings and attacks in Pakistan. Islamabad said the strikes killed over 100 militants, while Kabul said dozens of civilians were killed and condemned the attacks as a violation of its sovereignty.
In a post on social media platform X, Afghan government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said Afghanistan had launched “large-scale offensive operations” in response to repeated violations by the Pakistani military.
Pakistan’s Ministry of Information said Afghan forces had initiated hostilities along multiple points of the frontier.
“Afghan Taliban regime unprovoked action along the Pakistan–Afghanistan border given an immediate, and effective response,” the ministry said in a statement.
The statement said Pakistani forces were targeting Taliban positions in the Chitral, Khyber, Mohmand, Kurram and Bajaur sectors, claiming heavy Afghan casualties and the destruction of multiple posts and equipment. It added that Pakistan would take all necessary measures to safeguard its territorial integrity and the security of its citizens.
Separately, security officials said Pakistani forces had carried out counterattacks in several border sectors.
“Pakistan’s security forces are giving a befitting reply to the unprovoked Afghan aggression with full force,” a security official said, declining to be named.
“The Pakistani security forces’ counter-attack destroyed Taliban’s hideouts and the Khawarij fled,” they added, referring to TTP militants.
The claims from both sides could not be independently verified.
Cross-border violence has intensified in recent weeks, with Pakistan blaming a surge in suicide bombings and militant attacks on militants it says are based in Afghanistan. Kabul denies providing safe havens to anti-Pakistan militant groups.
The clashes mark the third major escalation between the neighbors in less than a year. Similar Pakistani strikes last year triggered weeklong clashes before Qatar, Türkiye and other regional actors mediated a ceasefire in October.
The 2,600-kilometer (1,600-mile) frontier, a key trade and transit corridor linking Pakistan to landlocked Afghanistan and onward to Central Asia, has faced repeated closures amid tensions, disrupting commerce and humanitarian movement. Trade between the two nations has remained closed since October 2025.
