KARACHI: Most analysts predict a seventh consecutive rate cut by Pakistan’s central bank on Monday, amid the country’s first International Monetary Fund (IMF) review for its $7 billion bailout and near-decade low inflation.
Pakistan’s central bank’s current easing cycle, one of the most aggressive among emerging markets, follows a six-month series of rate cuts totalling 1000 basis points (bps), which brought the key rate down from a record high of 22 percent in June to 12 percent, with the latest 100 bps cut in January.
As Pakistan undergoes economic reforms mandated by the IMF program, it stands to secure additional funding from the global lender, pending the ongoing review.
The cash-strapped South Asian nation could unlock a tranche of funding if the ongoing review is approved, ahead of its annual budget presentation looming in June.
Inflation for the month of February clocked in at a near decade low of 1.5 percent, largely due to a high base a year-ago.
A Reuters survey of 14 analysts suggests that the central bank may further reduce rates, with a median forecast of a 50 bps cut.
Of the 10 analysts who expect a rate cut: three anticipate a 100 bps cut, one a 75 bps cut, and six a 50 bps cut. The remaining four analysts predict no change.
Most analysts predicting a rate cut believe the central bank will stop reductions when rates hit 10.5-11 percent, due to a potential inflation rise and anticipate a moderate rise in inflation from March to May.
Ahmad Mobeen, senior economist of S&P Global predicts inflation will “bottom out” in Q1, then gradually rise.
He anticipates a 6.1 percent average inflation for 2025. Despite the “sharp drop” in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), he notes that urban core inflation, indicative of ongoing price pressures, remains high at 7.8 percent.
“The S&P Global HBL Pakistan Manufacturing PMI also indicates rising input costs, pushing manufacturers to hike prices in February 2025 at the fastest pace since October 2024,” he said.
In the last policy meeting, the bank maintained its forecast of full-year GDP growth at 2.5 percent-3.5 percent and predicted faster growth would help boost the country’s previously struggling foreign exchange reserves.
“While GDP posted 0.9 percent growth in 1QFY25, large-scale manufacturing remains in negative territory, and production has yet to gain momentum. The transmission of lower rates to economic activity is yet to be seen,” said Sana Tawfik, head of research at Arif Habib Limited.
She added that the target is only possible if industrial activity picks up and agricultural output improves.
POLL: Pakistan eyes seventh straight rate cut amid decade low inflation, IMF review
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POLL: Pakistan eyes seventh straight rate cut amid decade low inflation, IMF review
- Pakistan follows a six-month series of rate cuts, which brought the key rate down from a record high of 22 percent in June to 12 percent in January
- As Pakistan undergoes economic reforms mandated under the IMF program, it stands to secure additional funding from the global lender
How political tensions between India, Pakistan might make their way into English cricket
- BBC reported last week Indian Premier League-owned franchises in England’s The Hundred will not consider Pakistani players
- Of 964 total cricketers that have registered for auction in The Hundred, 67 players— 63 men and four women— are from Pakistan
Geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan might be spilling over into English cricket.
Four of the eight franchises in England’s newest cricket competition — The Hundred — are at least part-owned by Indian investors who also control teams in the Indian Premier League (IPL).
No Pakistan player has featured in the IPL since the Mumbai terror attacks in 2008, and the BBC reported last week that the IPL-owned franchises in The Hundred — Manchester Super Giants, MI London, Southern Brave and Sunrisers Leeds — would not be considering any Pakistan cricketers when the player auction takes place across March 11-12. None of those four teams have officially commented on the BBC report.
Last year, Richard Gould, chief executive of the England and Wales Cricket Board, said the governing body was “aware” of playing restrictions on Pakistani players in the IPL and other cricket leagues where there are Indian investors, but insisted that “won’t be happening” in The Hundred.
The ECB sent an email on Sunday to the eight franchises in The Hundred, reminding them of their responsibilities and warning them that action would be taken if there is any evidence of discrimination, including ignoring players based on nationality.
Britain’s Press Association also reported that if any proof was forthcoming, the matter would likely be referred to the Cricket Regulator — an independent body responsible for monitoring compliance with the game’s regulations — while the ECB may take separate action, too.
The ECB has retained full ownership of the 100-ball competition and its regulations, but has sold stakes in it to big-business investors from India and the United States to generate hundreds of millions of pounds to safeguard the financially stricken domestic game in England.
Of the 964 players up for auction in The Hundred, a total of 67 players — 63 men and four women — are from Pakistan.
There were no Pakistan players selected at last year’s auction — made before the new investors got involved in The Hundred franchises — although pacer Mohammad Amir and allrounder Imad Wasim featured as replacements.
Most of Pakistan’s highest-profile players were unavailable for some of the 2025 tournament because of Pakistan’s international schedule. This year, Pakistan has two tests in the West Indies during The Hundred tournament and begins a three-test series against England soon after the final.
Previously, Shaheen Shah Afridi and Haris Rauf (Welsh Fire), Shadab Khan (Birmingham Phoenix), Wasim (Trent Rockets) and Amir (Oval Invincibles) have been among the leading Pakistani players to have featured in The Hundred.
Harry Brook, who captains England’s limited-overs teams, will play for Sunrisers Leeds after being signed as the highest-paid player in The Hundred and said it would be “a shame” if Pakistan players were excluded from franchises.
“Pakistan have been a great cricket nation for many years and have some awesome players, some of the best players in the world,” said Brook, speaking while representing England at the T20 World Cup being held in India and Sri Lanka.
The 2026 edition of The Hundred is scheduled to run from July 21-Aug. 16. The competition, created to attract younger fans to the sport in England, has been running since 2021.
Political tension between Pakistan and India has meant there has been no bilateral cricket between the two nations since Pakistan toured India for a white-ball series in 2012.
