Gaza ceasefire faces hurdle but not collapsing yet, say analysts

This handout image released by the Hamas Media Office on February 22, 2025, shows newly-released Israeli hostage Omer Shem Tov kissing the head of a Hamas fighter shortly after being set free in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip. (AFP)
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Updated 25 February 2025
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Gaza ceasefire faces hurdle but not collapsing yet, say analysts

  • Hamas, in turn, warned that Israel’s decision jeopardizes the “entire agreement,” stopping short of promising a return to fighting
  • Despite Israel demanding Gaza be completely demilitarised and Hamas removed, while the militant group insisting on remaining in the territory after the war, Mendoza said that if Trump throws his weight behind phase two “then it will happen”

JERUSALEM: Gaza’s fragile five-week truce faces a major hurdle with Israel’s refusal to release Palestinian prisoners, but analysts say the ceasefire is likely to hold as Washington pushes for its extension.
“It’s actually the most complicated crisis since the beginning of the ceasefire,” Palestinian affairs expert Michael Milshtein of Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center told AFP.
While previous obstacles have tested the truce — including Hamas’s threat to stop releasing hostages over alleged violations of the ceasefire including insufficient aid entering Gaza — Milshtein emphasized that “this time, it is even more complicated.”
On Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspended the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, after militants freed six hostages.
He condemned what he described as “humiliating ceremonies” by Hamas to free hostages in Gaza.
Palestinian militants had in the weeks prior paraded Israeli captives and later displayed black coffins containing deceased hostages on stage, sparking outrage across Israel.
Netanyahu went further on Sunday, warning that Israel was ready to “resume intense fighting at any moment” in the Palestinian territory.

Hamas, in turn, warned that Israel’s decision jeopardizes the “entire agreement,” stopping short of promising a return to fighting.
Yet, despite the escalating rhetoric, both sides appear intent on maintaining the ceasefire, according to Milshtein.
“Hamas really wants to implement phase one of the deal because on Saturday, the IDF (military) is meant to start leaving the Philadelphi Corridor,” he noted, referring to a strategic strip that runs along Gaza’s border with Egypt.
For Israel, Mairav Zonszein, an analyst from the International Crisis Group, said that Netanyahu was also stuck “in the same quagmire of trying to get hostages out while trying to get rid of the people holding those hostages.”
“I think Netanyahu is kind of doing what he does best, which is dragging things out, buying time, trying to see if he can leverage withholding these prisoners,” she said.
Zonszein noted that Israeli public opinion is putting pressure on Netanyahu to uphold the ceasefire, particularly as more hostages are seen “coming out alive.”
Some analysts suggest that Israel’s tougher stance is a calculated negotiating tactic ahead of upcoming talks for the second phase of truce.
“I don’t think the ceasefire will collapse, it’s not in Netanyahu’s interest to have it collapse particularly as hostages are still being held in Gaza,” said Sanam Vakil, director of UK-based think tank Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program.
“What we are witnessing now is political hardball, with them (Israel) trying to up the ante, or increase pressure on Hamas” ahead of the next phase, she said.

Phase two was “always going to be the hardest phase of the negotiations, made worse by the US position and posturing and by the fact there is no coherent Arab plan,” she said.
Trump has stirred controversy by openly suggesting that the United States should take control of Gaza and expel its 2.4 million inhabitants to Egypt and Jordan.
But in recent days he has toned down his view and on Wednesday his special envoy Steve Witkoff is due to arrive in Israel to push forward the phase two talks.
“I think the key to this is the Americans, they will determine what takes place next,” said Alan Mendoza, executive director of the UK-based Henry Jackson Society.
“Trump was the main factor in getting Netanyahu to agree to ceasefire,” he said, noting that the deal was on the table previously but “Trump pushed it and both the Israelis and Hamas have agreed to its terms.”
Despite Israel demanding Gaza be completely demilitarised and Hamas removed, while the militant group insisting on remaining in the territory after the war, Mendoza said that if Trump throws his weight behind phase two “then it will happen.”
“It’s a tough negotiation round and the odds are we will not be able to agree on a stage two plan but if the Arab states buck up... and take more of an interest given Trump’s Gaza Riveria plans — there’s a possibility we could do it.”
 

 


Syrian military tells civilians to evacuate contested area east of Aleppo amid rising tensions

Updated 50 min 32 sec ago
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Syrian military tells civilians to evacuate contested area east of Aleppo amid rising tensions

  • Syria’s military has announced it will open a “humanitarian corridor” for civilians to evacuate from an area in Aleppo province
  • This follows several days of intense clashes between government forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces

DAMASCUS: Syria’s military said it would open a corridor Thursday for civilians to evacuate an area of Aleppo province that has seen a military buildup following intense clashes between government and Kurdish-led forces in Aleppo city.
The army’s announcement late Wednesday — which said civilians would be able to evacuate through the “humanitarian corridor” from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Thursday — appeared to signal plans for an offensive in the towns of Deir Hafer and Maskana and surrounding areas, about 60 kilometers (40 miles) east of Aleppo city.
The military called on the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and other armed groups to withdraw to the other side of the the Euphrates River, to the east of the contested zone.
Syrian government troops have already sent troop reinforcements to the area after accusing the SDF of building up its own forces there, which the SDF denied. There have been limited exchanges of fire between the two sides, and the SDF has said that Turkish drones carried out strikes there.
The government has accused the SDF of launching drone strikes in Aleppo city, including one that hit the Aleppo governorate building on Saturday shortly after two Cabinet ministers and a local official held a news conference there.
The tensions in the Deir Hafer area come after several days of intense clashes last week in Aleppo city that ended with the evacuation of Kurdish fighters and government forces taking control of three contested neighborhoods. The fighting killed at least 23 people, wounded dozens more, and displaced tens of thousands.
The fighting broke out as negotiations have stalled between Damascus and the SDF, which controls large swaths of northeast Syria, over an agreement to integrate their forces and for the central government to take control of institutions including border crossings and oil fields in the northeast.
Some of the factions that make up the new Syrian army, which was formed after the fall of former President Bashar Assad in a rebel offensive in December 2024, were previously Turkiye-backed insurgent groups that have a long history of clashing with Kurdish forces.
The SDF for years has been the main US partner in Syria in fighting against the Daesh group, but Turkiye considers the SDF a terrorist organization because of its association with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which has waged a long-running insurgency in Turkiye. A peace process is now underway.
Despite the long-running US support for the SDF, the Trump administration has also developed close ties with the government of interim Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa and has pushed the Kurds to implement the integration deal. Washington has so far avoided publicly taking sides in the clashes in Aleppo.
The SDF in a statement warned of “dangerous repercussions on civilians, infrastructure, and vital facilities” in case of a further escalation and said Damascus bears “full responsibility for this escalation and all ensuing humanitarian and security repercussions in the region.”
Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said in a statement Tuesday that the US is “closely monitoring” the situation and called for “all parties to exercise maximum restraint, avoid actions that could further escalate tensions, and prioritize the protection of civilians and critical infrastructure.” He called on the parties to “return to the negotiating table in good faith.”
Al-Sharaa blasts the SDF
In a televised interview aired Wednesday, Al-Sharaa praised the “courage of the Kurds” and said he would guarantee their rights and wants them to be part of the Syrian army, but he lashed out at the SDF.
He accused the group of not abiding by an agreement reached last year under which their forces were supposed to withdraw from neighborhoods they controlled in Aleppo city and of forcibly preventing civilians from leaving when the army opened a corridor for them to evacuate amid the recent clashes.
Al-Sharaa claimed that the SDF refused attempts by France and the US to mediate a ceasefire and withdrawal of Kurdish forces during the clashes due to an order from the PKK.
The interview was initially intended to air Tuesday on Shams TV, a broadcaster based in Irbil — the seat of northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region — but was canceled for what the station initially said were technical reasons.
Later the station’s manager said that the interview had been spiked out of fear of further inflaming tensions because of the hard line Al-Sharaa took against the SDF.
Syria’s state TV station instead aired clips from the interview on Wednesday. There was no immediate response from the SDF to Al-Sharaa’s comments.