Saudi banking sector poised for stability with 10% lending growth: S&P Global

Saudi Arabia Banking Sector Outlook 2025 report projects that credit growth will bolster banks’ profitability, aligning with its 2024 estimates. Shutterstock
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Updated 20 January 2025
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Saudi banking sector poised for stability with 10% lending growth: S&P Global

  • Mortgage lending in the Kingdom is set for growth, supported by lower interest rates
  • Credit losses are expected to range between 50 and 60 basis points over the next 12 to 24 months

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s banking sector is set to maintain profitability this year, with lending projected to grow by 10 percent, driven by corporate loans linked to Vision 2030 projects, according to a new analysis. 

In its latest report, S&P Global said that stable credit growth, fueled by lower interest rates and a supportive economic environment, will underpin the sector’s performance. 

The Saudi Arabia Banking Sector Outlook 2025 report projects that credit growth will bolster banks’ profitability, stabilizing the return on assets at 2.1 to 2.2 percent — aligning with its 2024 estimates. 

The growth is. part of the Kingdom’s spending on Vision 2030 programs, which has increased at an annual rate of 33.8 percent since the initiative’s inception, revealed Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan in a statement in November. 

“We expect Saudi banks will continue resorting to international capital markets to help fund growth related to Vision 2030,” said Zeina Nasreddine, credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings. “Banks are poised for stable profitability in 2025 as the volume effect compensates for lower margins.” 

The analysis aligns with data from the Saudi Central Bank, which reported a 13.33 percent year-on-year increase in bank loans to SR2.93 trillion ($782 billion) in November, the highest growth rate in 22 months. Corporate loans were the main driver, rising 17.28 percent to SR1.58 trillion. 

S&P Global’s report also said that mortgage lending in the Kingdom is set for growth, supported by lower interest rates and expanding demographics driving demand in the residential real estate sector. 

Credit losses are expected to range between 50 and 60 basis points over the next 12 to 24 months, supported by banks’ strong provisioning buffers. 

External funding needs will persist due to Vision 2030 investment requirements, though recent mortgage-backed securities initiatives could provide some relief, the agency said. 

“NIM (Net interest margin) is expected to drop by 20- 30 bps by the end of 2025 relative to 2023 as SAMA follows the Fed’s rate cuts to maintain its currency peg,” said S&P Global. 

The report anticipates nonperforming loan formation will remain slow in 2025, with NPLs increasing to 1.7 percent of systemwide loans by the end of the year, up from 1.3 percent in September, owing to fewer write-offs. 

S&P Global said that Saudi banks are well-capitalized, ensuring their creditworthiness, adding that earnings generation is sufficient to support asset growth, with the dividend payout ratio expected to average 50 percent in 2025. 

Saudi Arabia is projected to witness an average gross domestic product growth of 4 percent between 2025 and 2027, compared to 0.8 percent in 2024. 

The US-based agency further said that Vision 2030 initiatives are anticipated to drive medium-term non-oil growth, fueled by increased construction activities and a growing services sector supported by rising consumer demand and an expanding workforce. 

The report also highlighted the Kingdom’s booming tourism sector, with growth in the hospitality industry driven by improved visa processes and enhanced leisure options. 


Using space science to protect Saudi Arabia’s environment

Updated 02 January 2026
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Using space science to protect Saudi Arabia’s environment

  • Kingdom is harnessing satellite technology to forecast disasters, boost agriculture

RIYADH: Learning space science has delivered significant environmental benefits worldwide, helping many countries better understand and manage climate challenges. 

Saudi Arabia is now taking steps not only to explore the galaxy but also to invest in future generations who can apply space science to pressing environmental issues at home.

Last November, the Space Academy, part of the Saudi Space Agency, launched a series of seminars designed to enhance knowledge and develop skills in space science and technology, with a particular focus on Earth observation.

Running for nearly a month, the program formed part of a broader strategy to nurture national talent, raise scientific awareness, and build data capabilities that support innovation and research across the Kingdom.

Developing space sector can eventually help reduce some of the critical climate issues such as drought and air pollution. (AFP)

As efforts to strengthen the sector continue, important questions remain: How can space science translate into tangible environmental benefits? And how large is the global space economy?

In an interview with Arab News, Fahad Alhussain, co-founder of SeedFord, highlighted the scale of the opportunity and its environmental impact.

“To be frank, the slogan that we always use in space is that ‘saving the Earth from the space.’ It is all about this,” Alhusain told Arab News.

“You can recall a lot of related environmental issues like global warming, related to forests, related to the damage that happens to the environment. Without space, it would be almost impossible to see the magnitude of these damages.”

According to Alhussain, satellites have transformed how experts observe environmental changes on Earth, offering a comprehensive view that was previously impossible.

“By collecting data and using satellites… You can better analyze and measure so many things that help the environment,” said Fahad Alhussain. (Supplied)

He said that “the transformation of technology allows even the non-optical ways of measuring, assessing, and discovering what is going on in the environment … you can even anticipate fire before it happens in the forest.”

“You can detect the ice-melt down, you can get huge amount of information and can see it through the weather maps…there is a huge section in the economy for the environment,” Alhussain commented.

A 2022 report by Ryan Brukardt, a senior partner at McKinsey & Company, published by McKinsey Quarterly, found that more than 160 satellites currently monitor Earth to assess the impacts of global warming and detect activities such as illegal logging.

Brukardt cited NASA as an example of how advanced satellite tools are used to track environmental changes, including shifts in ocean conditions, cloud cover, and precipitation patterns. He also noted that satellite data can help governments determine when immediate action is needed, particularly in response to wildfires.

FASTFACT

Did You Know?

  • Satellites collect massive amounts of data, and AI is used to help interpret this information more efficiently and predict future outcomes.
  • The global space economy surpassed $600 billion in 2024 and is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030.
  • Saudi Arabia has established three key entities: the Supreme Space Council, the Saudi Space Agency, and the Communications, Space, and Technology Commission.

Beyond disaster response, satellites offer vital insights for agriculture. According to Brukardt’s report, scientists can use space-based data to monitor crop development and anticipate threats to harvests, such as drought or insect infestations.

These wide-ranging applications explain the rapid growth of the global space economy. 

According to World Economic Forum research, the sector is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, nearly tripling from $630 billion in 2023.

A deeper understanding of space and its applications offers Saudi Arabia, and the world, better tools to anticipate climate challenges, protect ecosystems, and safeguard biodiversity. (Supplied)

For Saudi Arabia, expanding space science capabilities could help address the country’s arid conditions by monitoring desertification and identifying sources of air pollution. Early detection of droughts, heatwaves, and crop stress could support more effective environmental planning and response.

Space-based data could also play a critical role in tracking environmental changes in the Red Sea and surrounding coastal ecosystems, strengthening marine conservation efforts and supporting the Sustainable Development Agenda.

As Alhussain emphasized, advancing knowledge in space science and satellite technology enables experts to measure environmental damage accurately and predict disasters before they occur, allowing for more effective responses.

By investing in space science education and research, the Kingdom can build national expertise, strengthen environmental protection policies, enhance food and water security, and contribute to global efforts to combat climate change—while also benefiting from the rapidly expanding space economy.

Ultimately, a deeper understanding of space and its applications offers Saudi Arabia, and the world, better tools to anticipate climate challenges, protect ecosystems, and safeguard biodiversity.

“By collecting data and using satellites, you can better analyze and measure so many things that help the environment,” said Alhussain.
“There will be patterns where you can warn people, scientists and decision makers to do something about it.”