RIYADH: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday revised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 to 1.6 million barrels per day down from 1.8 million bpd in the previous report.
Total world oil demand is expected to reach 105.5 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 103.8 million bpd in the full year of 2024.
OPEC also cut the global demand growth outlook for 2025 to 1.4 million bpd. Total world oil demand should stand at 105.3 bpd in 2025.
“Growth is expected to be bolstered by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries,” OPEC said in its monthly report.
OPEC+ earlier this month delayed its plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.
OPEC had kept the 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a view it had first taken in July 2023.
According to OPEC, the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in third quarter while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.
The 210,000 bpd cut in the 2024 figure is the largest of the five reductions OPEC has made in its monthly reports since August. In July, OPEC had expected world demand to rise by 2.25 million bpd.
“The bulk of this revision is made in the third quarter, taking into account recently received bearish data for the third quarter,” OPEC said in the report.
China accounted for part of the latest downgrade, as did India, other Asian countries, the Middle East and Africa, OPEC said. OPEC now expects Chinese oil demand to rise by 430,000 bpd in 2024, down from 760,000 bpd in July.
After decades as the dominant driver of expanding oil consumption, China’s crude oil imports are on track to peak as soon as next year as transport fuel demand begins to decline for the world’s top crude buyer.
