LONDON: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has again downgraded its global oil demand growth projections for both 2024 and 2025, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
The revision, announced on Tuesday, underscores weaker demand expectations for key regions such as China, India, and other parts of the world.
The updated forecast highlights the ongoing challenges faced by OPEC+, the broader alliance that includes OPEC members and partners like Russia. Earlier this month, OPEC+ delayed plans to increase oil output starting in December, citing concerns over falling oil prices.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC revised its 2024 global oil demand growth estimate to 1.82 million barrels per day, down from 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. This marks the first revision to the outlook since it was initially set in July 2023.
China was the primary driver of the downward revision. OPEC reduced its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth to 450,000 bpd, down from 580,000 bpd, noting that diesel consumption in September dropped year on year for the seventh consecutive month. OPEC attributed this decline to a slowdown in construction and weak manufacturing activity, as well as the rising use of LNG-fueled trucks in China.
The weaker outlook weighed on oil prices, with Brent crude trading below $73 per barrel following the release of the report.
The demand outlook for 2024 remains uncertain, with significant differences among forecasters regarding the strength of global demand growth, particularly concerning China’s recovery and the pace at which the world transitions to cleaner fuels.
In addition to the 2024 revision, OPEC also lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 1.54 million bpd, down from the previous estimate of 1.64 million bpd.