How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

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Voters fill out their ballot at the Fashion institute of Technology during first day of early voting in New York on October 26, 2024. (AFP)
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A voter casts her ballot at an early voting location in Columbus, Georgia on October 29, 2024 ahead of the general election. (Anadolu via Getty Images)
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Voters apply for a mail-in ballot at the Lehigh County elections office in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AP)
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Updated 31 October 2024
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How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

  • With its electoral college system, staggered results, and early voting options, understanding how the election functions can be daunting
  • To cut through the jargon and complexities of the democratic process, here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day

LONDON: Early voting has already begun in the US to decide who will form the next administration in what many believe is among the most consequential — and hotly contested — elections in a generation.

Almost every poll published over the past week has placed the two main contenders, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, neck and neck in the race for the White House.

Analysts predict the result could come down to just a handful of votes. The outcome could have huge implications not only for domestic policy, but also for the international order.

With extensive media coverage, election jargon, and an overwhelming volume of information, understanding the process can feel daunting. Here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day.

The polls

Polls are often excellent indicators of general voter sentiment. However, recent US elections have shown they are far from foolproof.

In 2016, almost every major polling firm predicted Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump. However, pollsters failed to capture Trump’s unexpected support, leading to a surprise victory that confounded many.

In 2020, polls correctly tipped Joe Biden as the likely winner, but underestimated the actual vote share Trump would receive. In the week before the election, polls gave Biden a seven-point lead, yet Trump managed to close the gap by several points on Election Day.

With most polls indicating a close race on Tuesday, many are wondering whether the pollsters have got it right this time around.

Electoral college

About 244 million Americans are eligible to vote in this year’s election. If the turnout matches 2020’s record 67 percent, about 162 million ballots will be cast across 50 states.




People cast their ballots during early in-person voting on Oct. 30, 2024, in Nashville, Tennessee. (AP)

A recent Arab News-YouGov poll indicated that Arab Americans are likely to vote in record numbers, with more than 80 percent of eligible voters saying they intend to participate — potentially swinging the outcome in several key states.

When voters cast their ballots, they do not vote directly for their preferred presidential candidate. Rather, they vote for a slate of “electors” who formally choose the president — a process known as the electoral college system.

Due to the quirks of this system, the candidate with the most votes nationally may not necessarily win the presidency. This was the case with Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Al Gore in 2000, both of whom won the popular vote but lost the election.




Former US Vice President Al Gore (left) won the popular vote in 2000 and so did former US first lady and senator Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election. But both lost the race because their rivals won more electoral votes. (AFP/File photos)l 

The electoral college creates what could be defined as 51 mini elections — one in each state and another for Washington, D.C. In 48 states and D.C., the candidate with the majority vote takes all the electors from that state.

However, Maine and Nebraska have a different system, allocating electors by district, meaning their electoral votes may be split between candidates.

In total, 538 electors are distributed among the states. A candidate must secure at least 270 of these to win the presidency.

In the unlikely case that no candidate has the required 270 electoral college votes, then a contingent election takes place. This means the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the US Congress, votes for the president.

How votes are counted

When the polls close on election day, the count begins. In most cases, in-person votes are counted first, followed by early and mail-in ballots.

Results from smaller or less contested states often come in early, while larger, key battleground states like Pennsylvania or Georgia may take hours — or days — to finalize due to stringent verification steps, including signature checks and ballot preparation for electronic scanning.




Jessica Garofolo (L), administrative services director for Allegheny County, demonstrates how the high-speed ballot scanner for mail-in ballots works during a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

States like Florida, where mail-in ballots are processed in advance, may report results relatively quickly. Other states, particularly those with late processing times for absentee ballots, might not finalize their tallies until days later.

State and local poll officials collect, verify, and certify the popular vote in each jurisdiction, following procedures for accuracy before final certification by governors and designated officials.

In response to unprecedented threats in 2020, many polling stations have now installed panic buttons, bulletproof glass and armed security to ensure safety across the more than 90,000 polling sites nationwide.




This combination image shows smoke pouring out of a ballot box on Oct. 28, 2024, in Vancouver, Washington (left) and a damaged ballot drop box displayed at the Multnomah County Elections Division office on Oct. 28, 2024, in Portland, Oregon. (KGW8 via AP/AP)

Mail-in and early votes

Although election day is held on the first Tuesday after Nov. 1, many Americans vote early. Early voting allows citizens to cast ballots in person, while others opt for mail-in ballots.

This year, early and mail-in voting are once again expected to play a crucial role, with millions of ballots already cast. President Biden voted early on Monday in his home state of Delaware.




US President Joe Biden casts his early-voting ballot in the 2024 general election in New Castle, Delaware, on October 28, 2024. (AFP)

States vary in how they handle mail-in ballots, with some processing them before election day and others waiting until polls close. In closely contested states, the volume of mail-in ballots could be a decisive factor, potentially delaying results.

Voting by mail has grown in popularity. According to ABC News, as of Tuesday, more than 25.6 million Americans have already returned mail ballots, and more than 65 million — including military personnel serving overseas — have requested absentee ballots.

In 2020, a comparable number voted by mail, though the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased reliance on this option.




A voter casts her ballot during the early voting period on October 29, 2024 in the city of Dearborn in  Michigan state. (Getty Images via AFP)

Despite its growing popularity, the mail-in voting system has faced accusations of fraud. During the last election, authorities and the postal service were strained by millions of extra ballots.

At the time, Trump said that mail-in voting was a “disaster” and “a whole big scam,” claiming that the Democrats had exploited the system to “steal” the election. The Democrats claim those allegations contributed to the Capitol Hill attack of Jan. 6, 2021.

This election cycle, some states, including Michigan and Nevada, have passed laws permitting early counting of mail-in ballots, which should lead to faster results. However, most states’ absentee voting policies have seen minimal changes, leaving tensions high.

Authorities are closely monitoring the process. In a sign of just how tense the situation has become, officials announced on Tuesday that they were searching for suspects after hundreds of votes deposited in two ballot drop boxes in the Pacific Northwest were destroyed by fire.

When will a winner be declared?

Indiana and Kentucky will be the first states to close their polls at 6 pm ET, followed by seven more states an hour later, including the battleground state of Georgia, which in 2020 voted for Biden. North Carolina, another critical swing state which picked Trump last time around, closes at 7:30 pm ET.




Supporters of US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris cheer during a Get Out the Vote rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

By around 8 p.m. ET, many states will have reported results, most of which are expected to follow traditional patterns. However, early results in solid Republican states like South Carolina could hint at trends in neighboring battlegrounds like Georgia.

By 9 p.m. ET, polls in key swing states such as Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan close, with results trickling in soon after. By midnight ET, most of the nation will have reported, with Hawaii and Alaska closing shortly after, likely providing a clearer picture.

Pennsylvania, which is seen as a bellwether of the overall election outcome, aims to announce its results by early morning on Nov. 6.

The timing of a winner declaration ultimately depends on how close the race is in these key states. If one candidate establishes a clear lead in pivotal swing states early, a winner could be projected by major networks, as Fox News controversially did in 2020, calling Arizona for Biden hours ahead of other broadcasters.




Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances as he leaves a campaign rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

If the race remains tight in crucial states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, or Michigan — all won by Biden last time around — the results may be delayed, possibly into the next day or later.

In 2020, it took four days to project Biden’s win due to a high volume of mail-in ballots. Experts caution that similarly close results this year could lead to a comparable delay.

Possible controversy

As in previous years, the outcome of the election will likely be contested. Delays in ballot counting, especially from mail-in votes, could fuel disputes in states where margins are tight.




Mail-in ballots are secured inside a cage before election day, as officials host a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

Both parties have prepared legal teams to challenge issues surrounding ballot validity, recounts, or other contested results.

Concerns over voter intimidation, misinformation and unsubstantiated allegations of fraud may further stoke tensions, despite the rigorous safeguards put in place.

In its latest assessment, the International Crisis Group noted that while conditions differ from 2020, political divisions remain sharp and risks of unrest remain high, especially if results are contested or take days to finalize.

As the world watches Tuesday’s election closely, there is widespread hope for a fair and peaceful process, marking a fitting conclusion to this tense political season.
 

 


European leaders meet on response to US Ukraine shift

Updated 6 sec ago
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European leaders meet on response to US Ukraine shift

  • European leaders fear that Trump wants to make peace with Russia in talks that will not even involve Kyiv, let alone the EU
  • Emmanuel Macron has described Trump’s return for a second term in the White House as an ‘electroshock’
PARIS: European leaders met on Monday for emergency talks in Paris called by French President Emmanuel Macron to agree a coordinated response to a shock policy shift on the war in Ukraine by the new US administration of Donald Trump.
With European policymakers leaving the annual Munich Security Forum dazed by Vice President JD Vance’s withering attack on the European Union, key EU leaders, as well as UK Premier Sir Keir Starmer, were in Paris for the summit.
In the most concrete sign yet of the US policy shift, the top diplomats of the United States and Russia were Tuesday due to have the first such face-to-face meeting since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, a clear sign Trump wants to bring President Vladimir Putin in from the cold.
Facing one of their biggest challenges in years, European leaders fear that Trump wants to make peace with Russia in talks that will not even involve Kyiv, let alone the European Union.
Trump sidelined Kyiv and its European backers last week when he called Putin to talk about starting negotiations to end the conflict and said he could meet the Kremlin chief “very soon.”
Other key participants in the summit include NATO chief Mark Rutte, Danish Premier Mette Frederiksen — who has in the last weeks battled to rebuff Trump’s territorial claim to Greenland — and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Macron held telephone talks with Trump just before the summit, the French presidency said.

Macron has described Trump’s return for a second term in the White House as an “electroshock” and there are initial signs some of his counterparts are being stung into action.
Britain’s Starmer, aware of the importance of London showing commitment to European security after Brexit, said Sunday that he was willing to put “our own troops on the ground if necessary” in response to what he called “a once-in-a-generation moment for the collective security of our continent.”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, another key participant, said on Monday he would urge European leaders at the emergency summit to “immediately” boost Europe’s defenses, warning they do not match Russia’s.
“We will not be able to effectively help Ukraine if we do not immediately take practical steps regarding our own defense capabilities,” Tusk told reporters.
Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has said Europe would not be directly involved in talks on Ukraine, though it would still have “input.”
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said Sunday it would fall to Europe to guarantee any peace deal in Ukraine, adding he expected the United States to “revise their level of commitment to NATO, including in terms of geography.”
The American policy shift “requires that we truly wake up, and even take a leap forward, to take our place for the security of the European continent,” Barrot said.

But the notion of sending European troops to Ukraine — even after a ceasefire — was already causing friction within the European Union.
Spain’s foreign minister, Jose Manuel Albares, however said that, while it was necessary for Europeans to meet and prepare decisions, “nobody is currently planning to send troops to Ukraine, especially because peace is still far off.”
Germany on Monday agreed, with deputy government spokeswoman Christiane Hoffmann telling reporters it was “premature” to talk about sending troops to Ukraine.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz had said late Sunday that negotiations on Ukraine’s future could not be successful without European guarantees “that we will have created and accepted.”
Meanwhile Hungary, whose Prime Minister Viktor Orban is close to both Trump and Putin, said that Monday’s conference was an effort to “prevent” peace.
“Today, in Paris, pro-war, anti-Trump, frustrated European leaders are gathering to prevent a peace agreement in Ukraine,” said Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.

The Paris talks come as Washington said Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff would on Tuesday meet with a Russian delegation including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Riyadh ahead of a future meeting between Trump and Putin in the Saudi capital.
Rubio had earlier sought to play down expectations of any breakthrough at upcoming talks with Russian officials.
“A process toward peace is not a one-meeting thing,” he told the CBS network.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was to visit Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, one day after the meeting between top US and Russian officials.
Zelensky had announced the trip along with stops the United Arab Emirates and Turkiye last week without giving dates, adding he had no plans to meet Russian or US officials.

France tries five for holding reporters hostage in Syria

Updated 17 February 2025
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France tries five for holding reporters hostage in Syria

  • Didier Francois and Edouard Elias, and then Nicolas Henin and Pierre Torres, were abducted 10 days apart while reporting from northern Syria in June 2013
  • More than a decade later, jailed extremist Mehdi Nemmouche, 39, is among five men accused of their abduction at a trial to last until March 21

PARIS: Five men went on trial in France on Monday charged with holding four French journalists hostage for Daesh in war-torn Syria more than a decade ago.
Daesh emerged in 2013 in the chaos that followed the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, slowly gaining ground before declaring a caliphate in large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq.
The extremists abducted a number of foreign journalists and aid workers before US-backed forces eventually defeated the group in 2019.
Reporters Didier Francois and Edouard Elias, and then Nicolas Henin and Pierre Torres, were abducted 10 days apart while reporting from northern Syria in June 2013.
The journalists were held by Daesh for 10 months until their release in April 2014.
They were found blindfolded with their hands bound in the no-man’s land straddling the border between Syria and Turkiye.
More than a decade later, jailed extremist Mehdi Nemmouche, 39, is among five men accused of their abduction at a trial to last until March 21.
Nemmouche is already in prison after a Belgian court jailed him for life in 2019 for killing four people at a Jewish museum in May 2014, after returning from Syria.
“I was never the jailer of the Western hostages or any other hostage, and I never met these people in Syria,” Nemmouche told the Paris court, breaking his silence after not speaking throughout the Brussels trial or during the investigation.
All four journalists told investigators they were sure Nemmouche, then called Abu Omar, was their jailer.

Henin, in a magazine article in September 2014, recounted Nemmouche punching him in the face and terrorizing Syrian detainees.
He described him as “a self-centered fantasist for whom jihad was finally an excuse to satisfy his morbid thirst for notoriety. A young man lost and perverse.”
The journalists told investigators Nemmouche was an avid follower of news and a French crime show called “Bring in the accused,” who would quiz the detainees on their general knowledge or imitate famous French comedians.
He would also threaten to slit their throats, and once left a dead body outside their door to scare them.
Nemmouche, whose father is unknown, was brought up in the French foster system and became radicalized in prison before going to Syria, according to investigators.
Also in the dock are Frenchman Abdelmalek Tanem, 35, who has already been sentenced in France for heading to fight in Syria in 2012, and a 41-year-old Syrian called Kais Al Abdallah, accused of facilitating Henin’s abduction.
Both have denied the charges.

Belgian extremist Oussama Atar, a senior Daesh commander, is being tried in absentia because he is presumed to have died in Syria in 2017.
He has already been sentenced to life over attacks in Paris in 2015 claimed by Daesh that killed 130 people, and Brussels bombings by the group that took the lives of 32 others in 2016.
French Daesh member Salim Benghalem, who was allegedly in charge of the hostages, is also on trial though believed to be dead.
Governments have said hundreds of Westerners joined extremist groups in Syria.
Two US journalists, James Foley and Stephen Sotloff — with whom all four French journalists said they were kept for a period — were videotaped being beheaded by a militant who spoke on camera with a British accent.
El Shafee Elsheikh, an extremist from London, was found guilty in 2022 of hostage-taking and conspiracy to murder US citizens — Foley and Sotloff, as well as aid workers Peter Kassig and Kayla Mueller — and supporting a “terrorist” organization.


Philippines, UAE team up to restore the world’s most polluting river in Manila

Updated 17 February 2025
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Philippines, UAE team up to restore the world’s most polluting river in Manila

  • About 63,000 tonnes of plastic waste flows through the Pasig River annually, study shows
  • UAE’s Clean Rivers also pledged $20m to fund cleanup efforts, prevent solid waste pollution

Manila: The Philippines and the UAE have teamed up to restore the Pasig waterway, the world’s most polluting river, the Department of Foreign Affairs said on Monday.

The Philippine Department of Environment and Natural Resources signed an agreement with the UAE-based nonprofit Clean Rivers Foundation on the sidelines of the World Governments Summit in Dubai last week in a ceremony witnessed by First Lady Louise Araneta-Marcos.

“The agreement will provide the framework for projects that support the improvement of the Pasig River and prevent waste from leaking into it, which will also promote the preservation of the river ecosystem, enhancing economic opportunities and advancing tourism activities,” the DFA said in a statement.

The Pasig River, which runs through the heart of the Philippine capital, was ranked as the most polluting river out of over 1,600 others around the world in a 2021 study published in the Science Advances journal.

The Philippines is also the largest contributor of plastic waste that ends up in the world’s oceans, emitting more than 356,000 tonnes annually — about 63,000 of which came from the Pasig River.

The agreement also “expands the partnership between the Philippines and the UAE to areas that will prioritize the preservation and enhancement of the environment toward securing a sustainable future,” the DFA added.

As part of the partnership, Clean Rivers had announced its commitment of up to $20 million for Philippine programs aimed at rehabilitating the Pasig River and supporting initiatives that prevent waste leakage.

“We look forward to working closely with the Philippines Department of Environment and Natural Resources, and local organizations to turn the tide on river pollution,” Clean Rivers said in a statement.

The fund pledge from the UAE will also help “support sustainable solutions for communities” living along the Pasig River, as it will restore its ecological, commercial and residential value, DENR said in a statement

“With plans for green infrastructure to trap waste and projects to stop pollution at its source, the partnership marks a major step toward a cleaner, healthier Pasig River,” DENR said.

For Filipino environmental NGO BAN Toxics, the new cooperation with the UAE is a welcome first step in rehabilitating the waterway.

“We’re hopeful that it could do something good for the rehabilitation of the Pasig River, which we know has been, historically, a victim of environmental degradation,” Jashaf Shamir Lorenzo, BAN Toxics deputy executive director, told Arab News.

Though efforts to prevent waste leakage are helpful, Lorenzo said that such projects would be more effective if they tackled the root of the pollution issue.

“The thing with waste management is it should start with waste reduction,” he said. “We could reduce the waste in the first place, not just waste leakage, but the production of these products and how we could replace them with more sustainable alternatives, how we could prolong the lives of these products.”


UK Special Forces vetoed asylum applications of Afghan ex-commando allies

Updated 17 February 2025
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UK Special Forces vetoed asylum applications of Afghan ex-commando allies

  • Over 2,000 Afghan personnel had claims rejected following fall of country to Taliban in 2021
  • Afghan commandos could be compelled to testify at war crimes inquiry if resettled in Britain

LONDON: More than 2,000 resettlement applications by former Afghan Armed Forces commandos were rejected after UK Special Forces personnel vetoed their claims, preventing them from testifying to an inquiry into alleged war crimes, the BBC reported on Monday.

The UK Ministry of Defense revealed in a court case brought by a former Afghan soldier that officers denied applications from thousands of men who had fought the Taliban alongside the British in Afghanistan, having previously denied that a policy of doing so existed.

The MoD also refused to say, when asked by the BBC, if any applications for Triples Afghan soldiers — so-called because of the three-number identifications their units were assigned — had been supported by UK Special Forces senior figures.

Afghan Triples units were trained and funded by the UK. They were deemed at risk of reprisals following the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban in 2021, and allowed to apply for resettlement in the UK.

However, controversy has surrounded the failure to support applications by UK Special Forces officers, as an inquiry is ongoing into allegations of war crimes committed by Special Forces soldiers in Afghanistan, where Triples commandos were present.

If resettled in the UK, the Triples could be compelled by the inquiry to give evidence. Many remain in hiding in Afghanistan.

One former Triples officer told the BBC: “Although (some asylum application) decisions have been overturned, it’s too late for some people.

“The delays have caused a lot of problems. People have been captured by the Taliban or lost their lives.”

The officer said Afghan commandos felt “betrayed” by their former “brothers” in the Special Forces, adding: “If Special Forces made these rejections they should say why. They should have to answer.”

The MoD denied that the Special Forces had the power to veto asylum applications, but former Defense Minister Andrew Murrison later admitted that they did after a BBC investigation.

Mike Martin MP, a former British Army officer who served in Afghanistan, told the BBC: “There is the appearance that UK Special Forces blocked the Afghan special forces applications because they were witnesses to the alleged UK war crimes currently being investigated in the Afghan inquiry.”

He added: “If the MoD is unable to offer any explanation, then the matter should be included in the inquiry.”

Former Conservative MP Johnny Mercer, who also served in Afghanistan and was an armed forces minister while in government, said he had heard “horrific” allegations made by Triples soldiers against UK Special Forces members.

It is “very clear to me that there is a pool of evidence that exists within the Afghan (special forces) community that are now in the UK that should contribute to this inquiry,” he added.

The ministry previously told the BBC: “There has been no evidence to suggest that any part of the MoD has sought to prevent former members of the Afghan specialist units from giving evidence to the inquiry.”


Hungary says European leaders aim to ‘prevent’ Ukraine truce

Updated 17 February 2025
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Hungary says European leaders aim to ‘prevent’ Ukraine truce

  • Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has repeatedly called for peace talks
  • He has also refused to send military aid to Ukraine since Russia’s offensive in 2022

BUDAPEST: Hungary’s foreign minister said European leaders’ meeting in Paris on Monday to discuss Washington’s shock policy shift on the Ukraine war was an effort to “prevent” peace.
The summit comes after US President Donald Trump sidelined Kyiv and its European backers last week when he called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to talk about starting negotiations to end the conflict.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban – one of the closest EU partners of Trump and Moscow – has repeatedly called for peace talks and refused to send military aid to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022.
“Today, in Paris, pro-war, anti-Trump, frustrated European leaders are gathering to prevent a peace agreement in Ukraine,” Peter Szijjarto told a press briefing which was livestreamed on his Facebook page.
“Unlike them, we support Donald Trump’s ambitions, unlike them, we support the US-Russian negotiations, unlike them, we want peace in Ukraine,” he added.
Leaders from the UK, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark are expected at the Paris meeting, which falls ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
Antonio Costa, who heads the European Council representing the European Union’s 27 nations, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO secretary general Mark Rutte will also be present.
The French presidency said the meeting would address “the situation in Ukraine” and “security in Europe.”
Meanwhile, Slovenia’s pro-EU president also criticized the Paris meeting for not including all 27 of the bloc’s leaders.
“On a symbolic level, the organizers of the Paris summit show to the world that even within the EU not all states are treated equally,” Slovenian President Natasa Pirc Musar said in a statement.