Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

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Updated 29 October 2024
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Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

LONDON: Just days before Americans head to the polls to decide who will be the next US president, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris find themselves neck and neck in the race for the White House. With the contest balanced on a razor’s edge, any minor development at this point could be enough to decisively swing the vote.

Although they make up just 1 percent of the total electorate, Arab Americans represent a significant constituency in several swing states, where even a handful of votes could influence the election outcome. As such, neither of the main candidates can afford to take their votes for granted.

That is why Arab News teamed up with polling agency YouGov to survey the attitudes of Arab Americans across all geographies, age ranges, genders and income brackets to see which way the community was leaning, and what issues mattered to them most.

What became abundantly clear from the survey was that Arab Americans are not a monolith motivated by any single issue. Domestic matters, such as the economy and the cost of living, loomed large, while border security and abortion rights were also key considerations.

However, it was the plight of the Palestinians that emerged as the biggest issue for Arab Americans of all generations; namely the ongoing Israeli offensive against Hamas in Gaza and the perceived failure of President Joe Biden’s administration to rein in Israel.




Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris. (AFP/File)

Brian Katulis, a senior fellow for US foreign policy at Middle East Institute, who moderated a special panel discussion on Monday to examine the poll findings, said the prominence of the Palestinian issue in this election showed there was still a role for the US to play in the region.

“Within the political discussion we’re having in this country, it does imply that there’s actually a strong interest in the US engaging more deeply in the Middle East — just doing it in the right way,” said Katulis.

“There’s a serious difference over who and which candidate is the right way. But for those who’ve said that we should just pull back from the region, restrain ourselves, there’s some who say that, but I think there’s a general impulse here that we need to actually delve more deeply into trying to solve — or not solve, but engage — these questions in a proper way in the region itself, but then politically here at home.”

Asked to place six key issues in order of priority, 26 percent of Arab Americans polled by YouGov said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is their chief concern. The economy and the cost of living were not far behind, representing the chief concerns for 19 percent of respondents.

“The highest priority, in terms of issues that Arab Americans face, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict came at 26 percent — the highest — then followed by the economy and cost of living,” Lara Barazi, a freelance data consultant and former research director at YouGov, told the MEI panel.

Palestine appeared to be of most concern to Arab Americans in lower income brackets: 37 percent of those earning under $40,000, falling to 22 percent among those paid $80,000 or more.

“These are their issues that kind of mirror what’s going on right now in the US, not only for Arab Americans, when we look at income,” said Barazi.




If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel. (AFP/File)

“The highest priority goes to the Palestinian conflict. It’s 41 percent of the lowest earners who support the Palestinian-Israeli conflict versus the highest earners. Basically, they’re interested in the economy, cost of living and the Palestinian conflict, but they do put a lot of weight on the economy and cost of living.”

What was also interesting about the findings was how much of a priority the Middle East conflict was for respondents identifying as Republican, Democrat and independent.

“We see that the highest (ranking) for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict comes from independents and the lowest comes from Republicans,” said Barazi. “Only 17 percent of Republicans said that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a top priority for us, while cost of living comes the highest for Republicans.”

Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him, which suggested they are penalizing the Democrats over the Biden administration’s perceived failure to rein in Israel.

Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris, although this gap could easily be narrowed — or slightly widened — by the survey’s 5.93 percent margin of error.

The slightly higher support for Trump than for Harris comes despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 23 percent as independents.

The findings were somewhat puzzling, especially as Trump has announced his intention to expand his 2017 travel ban on people from seven majority-Muslim countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) and has said if elected he would bar Palestinian refugees from entering the US, policies that few Arab Americans would support.

Nevertheless, it appears Biden’s record on the Middle East over the past year has been the deciding factor for many.

Also taking part in Monday’s MEI panel discussion, Yasmeen Abu Taleb, a White House reporter at The Washington Post, said the Democrats never expected the issue of Palestine to hang over the campaign in the way that it has.




Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. (AFP/File)


“We’ve never seen the issue of Palestine be this big of a political issue for this long,” she said. “I think in the Biden administration, there was a sense that people would be really angry and protest for a month or two. They hoped the war would be over by January.

“They were always wildly optimistic that this was not going to hang over them as an election issue. And here we are, more than a year later, and it’s still a key driver of the election. I think that’s an important signal of how much the politics have shifted on this.

“I don’t think we’ve seen this in US politics, where the debate has been this intense and sustained.”

If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel or if the policy of the Biden administration, of which she is part, will remain broadly unchanged.

“Obviously it depends on who wins but I do think if you saw a Harris presidency, it’s not going to be the dramatic change that people are pushing for,” said Abu Taleb. “But I do think there are signs that the Democratic Party is shifting on Israel, and in subtle but important ways.”

Although the Arab News-YouGov poll focused on Arab American opinion, the panel discussion naturally expanded to the prevailing attitudes among the Arab populations and leaderships in the Middle East. Tarek Ali Ahmad, head of research and studies at Arab News, said that many in the Middle East are holding their breath.

“People are essentially just waiting for the election day to come,” he added. “That’s when everyone’s going to be like, OK, now we can finally stop this election game, campaigning, and we can actually get to solid, concrete policy that will affect what’s going to happen, whether or not we’re going to see an actual end to the conflict, or we’re going to see even further.

“We haven’t heard anything in terms of preference to whichever candidate comes through. But at the same time, we cannot dismiss the fact that any incoming president will have a lot to clean up with regards to everything that’s happening on the ground.”




“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president,” Ali Ahmad said. (AFP/File)

On whether or not the Arab world has any preference for the US presidency, Ali Ahmad said many in the region have remained tight-lipped, preferring to wait and see the outcome of this closely fought race.

“There’s a lot of different points of view and there’s no real proper preference for either candidate because of the fact that it’s just such a razor-thin difference,” he said.

“Now you have people on the ground talking about how, essentially, every single event that occurs causes a shift in opinion, from (Israel) entering into Lebanon, from the bombing of Iran, to even Biden’s resignation from the nomination.

“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president.”

Reflecting on the significance of the role of the Arab American constituency in the election, Ali Ahmad said many seem to recognize their vote can make a significant difference.

“The reason why there’s a big turnout, as we said, nine out of 10 Americans are set to go vote, is that 80 percent of those who responded found that their vote actually counts and will matter in this year's election,” he said.

“They really feel that they could actually change it and make that difference, whether it is to punish the Democrats or whether it is to actually vote for an independent.”

 


Germany’s top diplomat in Kyiv as Ukraine girds for impact of US election on the war

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Germany’s top diplomat in Kyiv as Ukraine girds for impact of US election on the war

KYIV, Ukraine: Germany’s top diplomat arrived Monday in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on an unannounced visit, in what appeared to be a show of European support for Ukraine on the eve of a US presidential election that could bring far-reaching changes in Washington’s policy toward Russia’s all-out invasion of its neighbor.
Germany is Ukraine’s second biggest weapons supplier after the US, and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock vowed that Berlin’s backing would remain steadfast.
“Together with many partners around the world, Germany stands firmly by Ukraine’s side,” she said, German news agency dpa reported. “We will support the Ukrainians for as long as they need us so that they can continue on their path to a just peace.”
The war is at a critical moment for Ukraine, with the Russian army making creeping gains on the battlefield and another hard winter ahead after Russia relentlessly battered the Ukrainian power grid.
Ahead of the US vote, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky attempted to lock Ukraine’s Western supporters into a long-term “victory plan,” including a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO and permission to use Western long-range missiles to strike military targets in Russia, but the response was disappointing for Kyiv officials.
Russia is using its superior numbers to heap pressure on Ukrainian positions along the front line. Ukraine’s top commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Saturday his troops are struggling to hold back “one of the most powerful (Russian) offensives” of the war.
Russia is now adding to its offensive push what Western intelligence sources say is a force of about 10,000 North Korean combat troops sent by Pyongyang under a pact with Moscow.
That has deepened Zelensky’s frustration with Western help. On Saturday, he urged allies to stop “watching” and take steps before the North Korean troops reach the battlefield.
Zelensky said Kyiv knows at which Russian camps the North Korean troops are being trained but Ukraine can’t strike them without permission from allies to use the Western-made long-range weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia.
Baerbock arrived in Kyiv hours after debris from drones intercepted by air defenses fell in two districts of the city, starting small fires, officials said. No people or property were harmed, according to the head of the Kyiv city administration, Serhii Popko.
A Russian glide bomb attack on Sunday night injured 15 people in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the northeast, regional police said.
Russia fired some 80 Shahed drones at Ukrainian cities overnight, Ukraine’s air force said.

Pakistan anti-polio drive struggles against militants, mistrust

Updated 19 min 46 sec ago
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Pakistan anti-polio drive struggles against militants, mistrust

  • Cases in Pakistan are on the rise, with 45 registered so far this year, up from six in 2023 and only one in 2021

Peshawar: Militant attacks and suspicion stemming from misinformation are hampering Pakistan’s battle to eradicate polio, but teams of dedicated volunteer health workers are determined to fight on.
Pakistan and Afghanistan are the only countries where the debilitating virus remains endemic, the disease mostly affecting children under five and sometimes causing lifelong paralysis.
Cases in Pakistan are on the rise, with 45 registered so far this year, up from six in 2023 and only one in 2021.
Polio can easily be prevented by the oral administration of a few drops of vaccine, but in parts of rural Pakistan health workers risk their lives to save others.
Last week seven people including five children were killed when a bomb targeted police traveling to guard vaccine workers. Days earlier two police escorts were gunned down by militants.
“When we hear that a polio vaccination team has been attacked, it deeply saddens us,” said health worker Zainab Sultan, 28, as she went door to door in Panam Dehri in northwest Pakistan
“Our responsibility now is to continue our work. Our job is to protect people from disability, to vaccinate children, and to make them healthy members of society.”
In the past firebrand clerics falsely claimed the vaccine contained pork or alcohol, forbidding it for consumption by Muslims.
A fake vaccination campaign organized by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in Pakistan in 2011 to track Osama bin Laden compounded the mistrust.
More recently, militant groups have shifted to targeting armed police escorts in their campaigns of violence against the state.
Pakistan has witnessed a dramatic uptick in attacks since the return of the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan in 2021, with Islamabad claiming hostile groups are now operating from there.
“In our area, nearly half of the parents were initially resistant to the polio vaccine, believing it to be a ploy by the West,” said local resident Ehsanullah, who goes by one name.
“There was a lack of awareness,” he said. “If this disease is spreading because of our reluctance, we are not just harming ourselves but the entire community.”
From previously being blamed for the mistrust of polio vaccines, some religious leaders — who wield immense authority in Pakistan — are now at the forefront of the campaign to convince parents.
“All major religious schools and scholars in Pakistan have debunked the rumors surrounding the polio vaccine,” said Imam Tayyab Qureshi.
“Those who attack polio vaccination teams have no connection to Islam or humanity,” he said in the provincial capital of Peshawar, where Panam Dehri lies on the outskirts.
For one parent in Panam Dehri, the endorsement by religious chiefs proved pivotal.
“Initially I did not vaccinate my children against polio. Despite everyone’s efforts, I refused,” said 40-year-old Zulfiqar, who uses one name.
“Later, the Imam of our mosque came to explain the importance of the polio vaccine, telling me that he personally vaccinated his own children and encouraged me to do the same,” he said.
“After that, I agreed.”
Another impediment can be that parents in impoverished areas use the government’s eagerness to vaccine as a bargaining chip, attempting to negotiate investment in water and road projects.
“There are demand-based boycotts and community boycotts that we face,” lamented Ayesha Raza, spokeswoman for the government polio eradication campaign.
“Your demands may be very justified, but don’t link it to your children’s health,” she pleads to them.
For some health workers, the battle to eradicate polio is more personal.
Hobbling door-to-door in Panam Dehri, polio survivor Ismail Shah’s paralyzed leg does not slow his mission.
“I decided in my childhood that when I grew up I would fight against the disease that disabled me,” said the 35-year-old.
Shah is among 400,000 volunteers and health workers who spent the past week patiently explaining to families that the oral innoculation — administered in two doses — is safe.
Their goal is to protect 45 million children, but it’s far from straightforward. When Shah arrived in his patch of 40,000 inhabitants there were more than 1,000 refusals.
“Now, there are only 94 reluctant parents left, and soon I will persuade them as well,” he said.


Four wounded by axe in fight on Paris suburban train

Updated 46 min 47 sec ago
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Four wounded by axe in fight on Paris suburban train

PARIS: Four people were wounded, two of them seriously, by an axe wielded during a fight that erupted Monday on a suburban train outside Paris, a police source said.
One of the victims had a hand cut off and another had their skull split open, the source added, asking not to be named.
Two others were more lightly injured.
Several people, some of them minors, were involved in the fight that broke out around around 8:00 am (0700 GMT), the source added.
The incident happened while the RER suburban express train was at the station of Ozoir-la-Ferriere southeast of Paris.
Since the train was halted at a station, the violence did not affect traffic on the RER E line, which runs east-west through Paris and its suburbs, state rail operator SNCF said.


Russia to launch two Iranian satellites on Nov. 5, Tehran’s Moscow envoy says

Updated 04 November 2024
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Russia to launch two Iranian satellites on Nov. 5, Tehran’s Moscow envoy says

  • Russia launched an Iranian research-sensing satellite, Pars 1, into space in February using a Soyuz rocket from the Vostochny Cosmodrome

Russia will launch two Iranian satellites into orbit using a Soyuz launcher on Tuesday, Iran’s ambassador to Moscow said on Monday, as the two US-sanctioned countries deepen their scientific relationship.
“In continuation of the development of Iran-Russia scientific and technological cooperation, two Iranian satellites, Kowsar and Hodhod, will be launched to a 500 km orbit of earth on Tuesday, Nov. 5, by a Soyuz launch vehicle,” Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali said in a post on X.
The development of Kowsar, a high-resolution imaging satellite, and Hodhod, a small communications satellite, is the first substantial effort by Iran’s private space sector, a report by Iran’s semi-official news agency Tasnim said last month.
Russia launched an Iranian research-sensing satellite, Pars 1, into space in February using a Soyuz rocket from the Vostochny Cosmodrome.


36 dead in bus crash in Indian Himalayas

Updated 04 November 2024
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36 dead in bus crash in Indian Himalayas

  • Hundreds of people die in road accidents in India every year
  • Indian PM offers condolences to victims of bus accident 

Dehradun, India: A bus in India plunged into a deep Himalayan ravine on Monday, killing at least 36 passengers and injuring several others, a government official said Monday.

Photographs released by government rescue teams showed the crumpled wreckage of the bus in thick undergrowth, with the twisted front of the vehicle squashed nearly flat.

Road accidents are common along the many mountainous roads in the Himalayan region, caused mostly by poor maintenance and reckless driving in the tortuous terrain.

“So far, 36 casualties have been confirmed,” Deepak Rawat, a senior official from the northern state of Uttarakhand told reporters.

“Three critically injured have been sent to hospital using a helicopter.”

A human chain of volunteers lined the steep slopes, and across a rushing river, helping pull out the wounded from the remains of the bus. Dead bodies were carried out and laid on the back of a truck.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered his “deepest condolences to those who have lost their loved ones in the unfortunate road accident.”

Modi’s office said in a statement that the families of those killed would receive 200,000 rupees ($2,380) in support, while those injured would get 50,000 ($595).

Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami said he had ordered an investigation into the accident, which took place in forested hills near the town of Almora.

Hundreds of people die in road accidents in India every year.