Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar

Before the offensive, the military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided with material support from Russia and China. (AP)
Short Url
Updated 28 October 2024
Follow

Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar

  • Before the offensive, the military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided with material support from Russia and China
  • “To us it doesn’t look like there’s any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it’s lost”

BANGKOK: Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military with rapid gains of huge swaths of territory and inspiring others to attack around the country.
The military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with vast superiority in troops and firepower, plus material support from Russia and China. But today the government is increasingly on the back foot, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders concede would be challenging to take back.
“The military is on the defensive all over the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to shift troops and then is vulnerable in other parts,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar advocacy group.
“To us it doesn’t look like there’s any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it’s lost.”
The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, triggering intensified fighting with long-established armed militias organized by Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups in its border regions, which have struggled for decades for more autonomy.
The army’s takeover also sparked the formation of pro-democracy militias known as People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition National Unity Government, which was established by elected lawmakers barred from taking their seats after the army takeover.
But until the launch of Operation 1027, eponymously named for its Oct. 27 start, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to prevent major losses around the country.
Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks from three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured towns and overran military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state.
Two weeks later, the Arakan Army launched attacks in its western home state of Rakhine, and since then other militia groups and PDFs have joined in around the country.
Myanmar’s military has been pushed back to the country’s center
A year after the offensive began, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast horseshoe of territory. It starts in Rakhine state in the west, runs across the north and then heads south into Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has pulled back toward central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and largest city of Yangon.
“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Lway Yay Oo, spokesperson for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, told The Associated Press. “We only thought that we would attack the military council together to the extent we could, but it has been easier than expected so we’ve been able to conquer more quickly.”
Along the way, the Tatmadaw has suffered some humiliating defeats, including the loss of the city of Laukkai in an assault in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured more than 2,000 troops, including six generals; and of the city of Lashio, which had been home to the military’s Northeast Command.
“The 1027 offensive was a highly impressive operation, quite complex, and the use of drones played a big role because basically they were able to dismantle the military’s network of fire-support bases across northern Shan,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project.
“And then, once the military’s artillery support eroded, they were able to overrun harder targets like towns and battalion headquarters.”
A year later, the military is “substantially weakened,” he said, but it’s too early to write it off.
The military has been weakened, but not defeated
The Tatmadaw has managed to claw back the town of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which had fallen in the first days of the 1027 offensive, stave off an attack by three ethnic Karenni militias on Loikaw, the capital of Kayah state, and has retained administrative control of Myawaddy, a key border crossing with Thailand, after holding off an assault by one ethnic group with the assistance of a rival militia.
Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive when the rainy season soon comes to an end, bolstered by some 30,000 new troops since activating conscription in February and its complete air superiority.
But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city, in the center of the country.
And where they might be out-gunned, they have gained strength, hard-won experience and confidence over the last year, said the Ta’ang National Liberation Army’s Lway Yay Oo.
“We have military experience on our side, and based on this experience we can reinforce the fighting operation,” she said.
Thet Swe, a spokesperson for the military regime, conceded it will be a challenge for the Tatmadaw to dislodge the Three Brotherhood Alliance from the territory it has gained.
“We cannot take it back during one year,” he told the AP in an emailed answer to questions. “However, I hope that I will give you a joyful message ... in (the) coming two or three years.”
Civilian casualties rise as the military turns more to indiscriminate strikes
As the military has faced setbacks in the fighting on the ground, it has been increasingly relying on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a 95 percent increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170 percent increase in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive began, according to a report last month by the United Nations’ Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.
The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians whom it believes support the resistance militias, a tactic that is only turning more against them, said Isabel Todd, coordinator for the SAC-M group.
“It doesn’t seem to be having the effect that they want it to have,” she said. “It’s making them even more hated by the population and really strengthening the resolve to ensure that this is the end of the Myanmar military as it’s known.”
Military spokesperson Thet Swe denied targeting civilians, saying it was militia groups that were responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.
Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar overall, and some 18.6 million people in need, according to the UN
At the same time, the 2024 humanitarian response plan is only 1/3 funded, hindering the delivery of aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs operation in Myanmar.
“The humanitarian outlook for the next year is grim, and we anticipate that the deteriorating situation will have a massive impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.
In some areas, however, the offensive has eased pressure, like northwestern Chin state, which borders Bangladesh and India and had previously been the focus of many of the Tatmadaw’s operations, said Salai Htet Ni, a spokesperson for the Chin National Front whose armed wing has been involved in fighting the military.
“In October of last year the military convoys that were going up into the Chin mountains were withdrawn,” he said. “As a result of the 1027 operation there have been almost no major military activities.”
Success brings new tensions between resistance groups
As the front has expanded it has seen militias advancing out of their own ethnic areas, like when Rakhine-based Arakan Army in January seized the Chin town of Paletwa, which has given rise to some friction between groups, foreshadowing possible future strife should the Tatmadaw eventually fall.
In the case of Paletwa, Salai Htet Ni said his group was happy that the AA took it from the Tatmadaw, but added that there should have been negotiations before they began operating in Chin territory and that the AA should now bring Chin forces in to help administer the area.
“Negotiations are mandatory for these regional administration issues,” he said. “But we will negotiate this case through dialogue, not military means.”
At the moment there is a degree of solidarity between the different ethnic groups as they focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications for the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar think tank said that does not translate to common aspirations.
Should the Tatmadaw fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.
“As far as I see, there is no established mechanism to resolve the issues,” he said. “The resistance being able to bring down the junta is unlikely, but I cannot discount this scenario, (and) if we cannot build trust and common goals, it could lead to the scenario of Syria.”
Chinese interests and ties with both sides complicate the picture
Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what turned out to be a successful bid to largely shut down organized crime activities that had been flourishing along its border.
In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan, which lasted for five months until the ethnic alliance opened phase two of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.
China has been displeased with the development, shutting down border crossings, cutting electricity to Myanmar towns and taking other measures in a thus-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.
Its support for the regime also seems to be growing, with China’s envoy to Myanmar urging the powerful United Wa State Army, which wasn’t involved in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to actively pressure the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army to halt the renewed offensive, according to leaked details of an August meeting widely reported by local media.
There is no evidence that the UWSA has done that, however.
“The idea that the northern groups and the Three Brotherhood Alliance etc. are somehow just agents of China is a complete misconception,” Todd said.
“They have their own objectives which they are pursuing that are independent of what China may or may not want them to do, and that’s apparent in the incredible amount of pressure that China has put on them recently.”
Because of the grassroot support for the resistance, it is less vulnerable to outside influence, said Kyaw Zaw, a spokesperson for the opposition National Unity Government.
“No matter who is putting pressure on us, we are winning because of the power of the people,” he said.


Global policymakers, innovators gather in New Delhi for India Energy Week

Updated 12 min 33 sec ago
Follow

Global policymakers, innovators gather in New Delhi for India Energy Week

  • Thousands of top industry leaders participate in Indian government’s flagship energy event
  • India’s main focus in the energy sector is local production and supply chains, PM Modi says

NEW DELHI: Thousands of top industry executives, innovators and policymakers gathered in New Delhi on Tuesday for India Energy Week 2025, where they will be discussing energy access and sustainability.

More than 70,000 delegates, officials and visitors are expected to take part in the Indian government’s flagship annual energy event, which over the next four days will feature 500 speakers, 700 exhibitors and 10 national pavilions from countries including the US, the UK, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan and Russia displaying their newest technology.

Held at the Yashobhoomi convention center in New Delhi, India Energy Week 2025 aims to spotlight energy access, security and new global energy systems, in line with the South Asian giant’s vision of energy transition.

“India’s energy ambitions stand on five pillars: We have resources, which we are harnessing. Secondly, we are encouraging our brilliant minds to innovate. Thirdly, we have economic strength, political stability. Fourthly, India has strategic geography, which makes energy trade more attractive and easier. And fifthly, India is committed to global sustainability. This is creating new possibilities in India’s energy sector,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a virtual address to the event’s participants.

“The next two decades are very important for India’s development. And in the next five years, we are going to cross many big milestones. Many of our energy goals are aligned with the 2030 deadline. We want to add 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Indian Railways has set a target of net zero carbon emissions by 2030. Our goal is to produce 5 million metric tons of green hydrogen every year by 2030 ... What India has achieved in the last 10 years has given us the confidence that we will definitely achieve these targets.”

India aims to generate 500 GW of electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030, under its nationally determined contributions to the Paris Agreement. Solar energy is the dominant contributor to its renewable energy growth, accounting for 47 percent of the total installed renewable energy capacity.

The solar power sector has observed a 3,450 percent increase in capacity over the past decade, rising from 2.82 GW in 2014 to 100 GW in January 2025, according to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy.

The growth is fueled by local solar module production, which in 2014 had a capacity of only 2 GW.

“There is a lot of potential in India for manufacturing various types of hardware including PV modules. We are supporting local manufacturing,” Modi said. “India’s major focus is on Make in India and local supply chains.”

Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, who opened the India Energy Week, urged participants to help chart a roadmap to stabilize energy markets and strengthen international cooperation.

“I am pleased that the event will see participation from more than 20 energy and other ministers, including deputies, from important stakeholders such as Qatar, UK, Russia, Brazil, Tanzania and Venezuela,” he said.

“⁠It is our fervent hope that the India Energy Week becomes the definitive platform for shaping the energy agenda of the future. This is where transformative partnerships shall take shape, where game-changing technologies are unveiled, and the future of energy is written.”


Bangladesh aims to hold December polls in first vote since Hasina ouster

Updated 11 February 2025
Follow

Bangladesh aims to hold December polls in first vote since Hasina ouster

  • Chief of Bangladesh’s interim administration earlier said reforms must take place before election
  • Special commission report accused Hasina of rigging previous polls in Bangladesh

DHAKA: Bangladesh is preparing to hold elections in December, the first general vote since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, the former longtime prime minister, Election Commissioner Abul Fazal Mohammad Sanaullah said on Tuesday.

The country’s interim government, headed by Nobel prize laureate Prof. Muhammad Yunus, has been implementing a series of reforms and preparing for elections since taking charge in August, after Hasina fled Dhaka amid student-led protests that called for her resignation.

In November, the transitional authorities appointed a new five-member election commission, which held a meeting with foreign envoys on Tuesday to present its plans for the upcoming polls.

“We have told them that we must make preparations based on the earliest possible date for the election. Our position remains unchanged. We are preparing with December in mind,” Sanaullah told journalists after the meeting.

“The national election is currently the Election Commission’s priority.”

Yunus previously said that Bangladesh could hold elections by the end of 2025 or in the first half of 2026, provided that electoral reforms take place first.

This includes having the Election Commission prepare a new voter list, a process expected to take months.

Following 15 years of uninterrupted rule, Hasina and her Awami League party had allegedly politicized key government institutions, including the Election Commission.

In a report submitted to the interim government last week, a special commission on electoral reforms said that Hasina was responsible for rigging the last three national polls in Bangladesh, as it proposed more than 200 recommendations to improve the country’s voting system.

“In 2014, 2018 and 2024, we witnessed three general elections where the big takeaway was that these were not participatory. There were big questions regarding the quality of these elections due to the absence of the opposition,” Dr. Nazmul Ahsan Kalimullah, chairman of the National Election Monitoring Council, told Arab News.

“I think the election should be organized within the shortest possible time considering the ongoing law and order, and political scenario of the country … if there is goodwill and good intentions from the authorities, nothing is impossible.”


Five killed in suicide bomb blast in northeastern Afghanistan, police say

Updated 11 February 2025
Follow

Five killed in suicide bomb blast in northeastern Afghanistan, police say

  • Blast at Kabul Bank kills bank’s security guard, four others including civilians and members of ruling Taliban movement
  • Militants from the Afghan chapters of Daesh have waged insurgency against the Taliban since they returned to power in 2021

KABUL: At least five people were killed when a suicide bomber with explosives strapped to his body detonated outside a bank in northeastern Afghanistan on Tuesday, police said.
The blast took place at 8:35 a.m. (0405 GMT) near the Kabul Bank branch in Kunduz province, killing the bank’s security guard and four others including civilians and members of Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban movement, police said.
Seven people were wounded, provincial police spokesman Jumma Uddin Khakasr added.
He did not say who was believed to be behind the attack and no group has claimed responsibility so far.
Militants from the Afghan chapters of Daesh have waged an insurgency against the Taliban since they returned to power in 2021.
Taliban authorities say they have mostly crushed the group, even as it continues to carry out attacks in Afghanistan.


Suicide bomber kills five outside bank in Afghanistan: police

Updated 11 February 2025
Follow

Suicide bomber kills five outside bank in Afghanistan: police

  • Attack targeted a queue of people waiting to collect their salaries

KABUL: A suicide bomber killed five people including Taliban security forces on Tuesday in an explosion outside a bank in northern Afghanistan, police said.
Seven people were also wounded in the attack which targeted a queue of people waiting to collect their salaries from a bank in the city of Kunduz, the capital of Kunduz province.
“A suicide bomber, who had improvised explosive devices, detonated himself,” said Jumadin Khaksar, police spokesman for Kunduz province.
He said civilians, civil servants and members of the Taliban security forces were among those killed.
“The Kunduz Province Police Command is working with relevant organizations to find the perpetrators of the incident and bring them to justice.”


Philippine divorce activists vow to fight on

Updated 11 February 2025
Follow

Philippine divorce activists vow to fight on

  • The Philippines is one of just two countries – along with Vatican City – where divorce remains illegal
  • Ending a marriage in the deeply Catholic society of 117 million is possible only via annulment or ‘nullification’

MANILA: In her bid to convince lawmakers to legalize divorce, Filipino fruit vendor Avelina Anuran has publicly testified about the abuse she said she regularly endured at the hands of her husband.
She also keeps a copy of the medical certificate from the bloody injuries she says he inflicted, hoping it might one day serve as evidence in court.
But the mother of two-turned-activist has gotten no closer to ending her marriage.
The Philippines is one of just two countries — along with Vatican City — where divorce remains illegal.
Last week, the latest attempt to introduce a divorce law evaporated as the upper house ended its session without even a hearing.
“They kept passing it around,” Anuran said.
The last time such legislation made its way to the Senate in 2019, she painstakingly detailed her experience for a public hearing. But the bill foundered.
Spouses have a “right to be free,” she said, adding that she would keep pushing for a law.
“Hopefully it will (pass) next year, with new senators coming in.”
Ending a marriage in the deeply Catholic society of 117 million is possible only via annulment or “nullification.”
But few Filipinos can afford the fee of up to $10,000, and the process does not consider domestic violence, abandonment or infidelity as qualifying grounds.
“I just want to be free from this marriage,” said Anuran, whose estranged husband remains the beneficiary on a life insurance policy she cannot change without his consent.
Campaigners like Anuran believe the tide of public support for divorce is turning, with surveys showing about half of Filipinos now firmly back a change.
Before taking office in 2022, President Ferdinand Marcos said he was open to supporting divorce.
But the latest effort to introduce such a bill still faced strong opposition in the Senate.
The proposed law would have compelled courts to provide free legal and psychological assistance to low-income petitioners, capped lawyers’ fees at 50,000 pesos ($859) and mandated divorce petitions be resolved within a year.
The divorce bill’s co-author, lawmaker Arlene Brosas, said it was “unacceptable” that the Senate had refused to tackle the measure given the “strong public demand.”
She said her Gabriela Women’s Party will refile it when a newly elected Congress convenes in July.
“We will continue fighting for the divorce bill, no matter the composition of the Senate and House of Representatives in the next term,” Brosas said.
The previous bill was likely influenced by the mid-term elections in May, family lawyer Lorna Kapunan said.
“Because (half of senators) are seeking re-election, they are afraid of the backlash of the Catholic Church,” Kapunan said.
Senate President Francis Escudero had argued the bill would “create divisiveness,” suggesting instead that the grounds for nullification could be expanded while avoiding the word “divorce.”
Father Jerome Secillano of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines, meanwhile said divorce contravenes the Church’s teachings on marriage and would ultimately destroy families.
“We will see more couples separating. We will see children who don’t know where to go,” Secillano said.
He also argued the number of domestic abuse victims would “double” as divorced men would “have another chance to be violent again” to new spouses.
Kapunan called the existing laws “very complicated, very expensive, very anti-woman and anti-child.”
Despite the opposition and failed previous attempts to legalize divorce, Anuran remains determined.
“No one’s backing down. Win or lose, the fight will continue.”