Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar

Before the offensive, the military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided with material support from Russia and China. (AP)
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Updated 28 October 2024
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Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar

  • Before the offensive, the military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided with material support from Russia and China
  • “To us it doesn’t look like there’s any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it’s lost”

BANGKOK: Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military with rapid gains of huge swaths of territory and inspiring others to attack around the country.
The military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with vast superiority in troops and firepower, plus material support from Russia and China. But today the government is increasingly on the back foot, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders concede would be challenging to take back.
“The military is on the defensive all over the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to shift troops and then is vulnerable in other parts,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar advocacy group.
“To us it doesn’t look like there’s any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it’s lost.”
The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, triggering intensified fighting with long-established armed militias organized by Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups in its border regions, which have struggled for decades for more autonomy.
The army’s takeover also sparked the formation of pro-democracy militias known as People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition National Unity Government, which was established by elected lawmakers barred from taking their seats after the army takeover.
But until the launch of Operation 1027, eponymously named for its Oct. 27 start, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to prevent major losses around the country.
Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks from three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured towns and overran military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state.
Two weeks later, the Arakan Army launched attacks in its western home state of Rakhine, and since then other militia groups and PDFs have joined in around the country.
Myanmar’s military has been pushed back to the country’s center
A year after the offensive began, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast horseshoe of territory. It starts in Rakhine state in the west, runs across the north and then heads south into Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has pulled back toward central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and largest city of Yangon.
“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Lway Yay Oo, spokesperson for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, told The Associated Press. “We only thought that we would attack the military council together to the extent we could, but it has been easier than expected so we’ve been able to conquer more quickly.”
Along the way, the Tatmadaw has suffered some humiliating defeats, including the loss of the city of Laukkai in an assault in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured more than 2,000 troops, including six generals; and of the city of Lashio, which had been home to the military’s Northeast Command.
“The 1027 offensive was a highly impressive operation, quite complex, and the use of drones played a big role because basically they were able to dismantle the military’s network of fire-support bases across northern Shan,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project.
“And then, once the military’s artillery support eroded, they were able to overrun harder targets like towns and battalion headquarters.”
A year later, the military is “substantially weakened,” he said, but it’s too early to write it off.
The military has been weakened, but not defeated
The Tatmadaw has managed to claw back the town of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which had fallen in the first days of the 1027 offensive, stave off an attack by three ethnic Karenni militias on Loikaw, the capital of Kayah state, and has retained administrative control of Myawaddy, a key border crossing with Thailand, after holding off an assault by one ethnic group with the assistance of a rival militia.
Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive when the rainy season soon comes to an end, bolstered by some 30,000 new troops since activating conscription in February and its complete air superiority.
But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city, in the center of the country.
And where they might be out-gunned, they have gained strength, hard-won experience and confidence over the last year, said the Ta’ang National Liberation Army’s Lway Yay Oo.
“We have military experience on our side, and based on this experience we can reinforce the fighting operation,” she said.
Thet Swe, a spokesperson for the military regime, conceded it will be a challenge for the Tatmadaw to dislodge the Three Brotherhood Alliance from the territory it has gained.
“We cannot take it back during one year,” he told the AP in an emailed answer to questions. “However, I hope that I will give you a joyful message ... in (the) coming two or three years.”
Civilian casualties rise as the military turns more to indiscriminate strikes
As the military has faced setbacks in the fighting on the ground, it has been increasingly relying on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a 95 percent increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170 percent increase in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive began, according to a report last month by the United Nations’ Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.
The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians whom it believes support the resistance militias, a tactic that is only turning more against them, said Isabel Todd, coordinator for the SAC-M group.
“It doesn’t seem to be having the effect that they want it to have,” she said. “It’s making them even more hated by the population and really strengthening the resolve to ensure that this is the end of the Myanmar military as it’s known.”
Military spokesperson Thet Swe denied targeting civilians, saying it was militia groups that were responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.
Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar overall, and some 18.6 million people in need, according to the UN
At the same time, the 2024 humanitarian response plan is only 1/3 funded, hindering the delivery of aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs operation in Myanmar.
“The humanitarian outlook for the next year is grim, and we anticipate that the deteriorating situation will have a massive impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.
In some areas, however, the offensive has eased pressure, like northwestern Chin state, which borders Bangladesh and India and had previously been the focus of many of the Tatmadaw’s operations, said Salai Htet Ni, a spokesperson for the Chin National Front whose armed wing has been involved in fighting the military.
“In October of last year the military convoys that were going up into the Chin mountains were withdrawn,” he said. “As a result of the 1027 operation there have been almost no major military activities.”
Success brings new tensions between resistance groups
As the front has expanded it has seen militias advancing out of their own ethnic areas, like when Rakhine-based Arakan Army in January seized the Chin town of Paletwa, which has given rise to some friction between groups, foreshadowing possible future strife should the Tatmadaw eventually fall.
In the case of Paletwa, Salai Htet Ni said his group was happy that the AA took it from the Tatmadaw, but added that there should have been negotiations before they began operating in Chin territory and that the AA should now bring Chin forces in to help administer the area.
“Negotiations are mandatory for these regional administration issues,” he said. “But we will negotiate this case through dialogue, not military means.”
At the moment there is a degree of solidarity between the different ethnic groups as they focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications for the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar think tank said that does not translate to common aspirations.
Should the Tatmadaw fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.
“As far as I see, there is no established mechanism to resolve the issues,” he said. “The resistance being able to bring down the junta is unlikely, but I cannot discount this scenario, (and) if we cannot build trust and common goals, it could lead to the scenario of Syria.”
Chinese interests and ties with both sides complicate the picture
Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what turned out to be a successful bid to largely shut down organized crime activities that had been flourishing along its border.
In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan, which lasted for five months until the ethnic alliance opened phase two of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.
China has been displeased with the development, shutting down border crossings, cutting electricity to Myanmar towns and taking other measures in a thus-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.
Its support for the regime also seems to be growing, with China’s envoy to Myanmar urging the powerful United Wa State Army, which wasn’t involved in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to actively pressure the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army to halt the renewed offensive, according to leaked details of an August meeting widely reported by local media.
There is no evidence that the UWSA has done that, however.
“The idea that the northern groups and the Three Brotherhood Alliance etc. are somehow just agents of China is a complete misconception,” Todd said.
“They have their own objectives which they are pursuing that are independent of what China may or may not want them to do, and that’s apparent in the incredible amount of pressure that China has put on them recently.”
Because of the grassroot support for the resistance, it is less vulnerable to outside influence, said Kyaw Zaw, a spokesperson for the opposition National Unity Government.
“No matter who is putting pressure on us, we are winning because of the power of the people,” he said.


South Korean tech giant to display Saudi-tailored AI models at LEAP 2025

Updated 5 sec ago
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South Korean tech giant to display Saudi-tailored AI models at LEAP 2025

  • Naver is South Korea’s largest search engine and internet portal provider
  • Company is one of few globally with a comprehensive AI value chain

SEOUL: South Korea’s tech giant Naver is going to present special Saudi-tailored artificial intelligence technologies at the LEAP 2025 conference, which will start in Riyadh on Sunday.

Organized by Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, LEAP is the largest tech event in the Middle East. This year, the four-day event is expected to draw nearly 700 startups, more than 1,000 expert speakers, 1,800 tech brands and 170,000 visitors.

Naver is among the few companies globally that has a comprehensive AI value chain, spanning data centers, cloud infrastructure and AI technologies. Its LEAP 2025 exhibition is themed “AI for Saudi Arabia, Powered by Naver” and will feature services currently provided in South Korea, with a focus on their potential adaptation for the Kingdom’s market.

These include an AI-powered tutor, an AI-driven electronic medical records service that converts conversations with patients to text-based documentation, and Naver Works, a tool that can summarize, translate, and generate emails.

The Korean company will present the potential localization of these technologies in Saudi Arabia’s education, healthcare, media and labor sectors.

“We aim to present AI models tailored specifically for Saudi Arabia, ensuring that the Kingdom maintains its own sovereign AI capabilities,” Han Dong-geun, Naver’s public relations officer, told Arab News.

“We already have two data centers and have cloud business know-how. And we also have AI experience in the form of LLMs (large language models). And so we want to introduce this value chain at LEAP 2025. AI development needs all three of these components, and we have all these capabilities.”

Naver has consistently emphasized the importance of sovereign AI, warning that the expansion of generative AI — driven primarily by US and Chinese tech companies — could threaten the technological independence of other countries.

The company believes its HyperCLOVA X — a Korean-based LLM, which is a type of AI program that can generate and understand text — is an example of a self-sufficient AI ecosystem that could serve as a model for Saudi Arabia’s own AI development.

“South Korea is the third country in the world to develop its own LLM ... We want to collaborate with Saudi Arabia and share our know-how and experiences to develop a custom AI model that preserves Saudi Arabia’s AI sovereignty,” Han said.

Saudi Arabia is emerging as the key Middle East market for the Korean tech giant, which is accelerating its foray into the region.

In 2023, the company won a $100 million contract to develop a digital twin platform — a software system that creates and manages a virtual replica, or “digital twin,” of a physical asset, process, or system, enabling users to monitor its real-time behavior and simulate various scenarios.

Last year, it also signed a memorandum of understanding with Aramco Digital and the Saudi Data and AI Authority to collaborate on the first Arabic LLM project, and partnered with Saudi Arabia’s National Housing Company to advance smart city projects and urban planning.

Naver is South Korea’s largest search engine and internet portal provider. Its business portfolio includes cloud services, AI, e-commerce, fintech, and digital content. The company logged a net income of $1.3 billion in 2024, according to regulatory filings.


Extremist attack kills 10 in northern Mali: sources

Updated 12 min 10 sec ago
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Extremist attack kills 10 in northern Mali: sources

DAKAR: A suspected extremist attack on a convoy escorted by Malian soldiers and Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has killed 10 people, local authorities and a security source said on Saturday.
Friday’s attack took place near the northern city of Gao, they said. Mali has faced serious unrest attributed to extremists since 2012. Its military rulers have broken ties with former colonial ruler France and turned politically and militarily toward Russia.


Rwandan and Congolese leaders to meet over eastern DRC conflict

Updated 08 February 2025
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Rwandan and Congolese leaders to meet over eastern DRC conflict

  • Rwanda-backed M23 armed group has rapidly seized swathes of territory in the mineral-rich eastern DRC
  • The group took the strategic city of Goma last week and is pushing into the neighboring South Kivu province

BUKAVu, DR Congo: Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame and his Congolese counterpart Felix Tshisekedi were set to join talks in Tanzania on Saturday as regional leaders convened in a bid to defuse the conflict in Democratic Republic of Congo.
The Rwanda-backed M23 armed group has rapidly seized swathes of territory in the mineral-rich eastern DRC in an offensive that has left thousands dead and displaced vast numbers.
The group took the strategic city of Goma last week and is pushing into the neighboring South Kivu province in the latest episode of decades-long turmoil in the region.
Kagame arrived for the summit in the Tanzanian city of Dar es Salaam, that brought together the eight countries of the East African Community and 16-member South African Development Community.
However, the Congolese presidency confirmed Friday that Tshisekedi would only attend via video call.
The presidents of Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe were among those present as the summit began.
Since the M23 re-emerged in 2021, peace talks hosted by either Angola and Kenya have failed and multiple ceasefires collapsed.
Rwanda denies military support for the M23 but a UN report said last year it had around 4,000 troops in DRC and profited from smuggling vast amounts of gold and coltan — a mineral vital to phones and laptops — out of the country.
Rwanda accuses the DRC of sheltering the FDLR, an armed group created by ethnic Hutus who massacred Tutsis during the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
The summit comes as the M23 advances on the town of Kavumu, which hosts an airport critical to supplying Congolese troops.
Kavumu is the last barrier before the South Kivu provincial capital Bukavu on the Rwandan border, where panic has set in.
A Bukavu resident said shops were barricading their fronts and emptying storerooms for fear of looting, while schools and universities suspended classes on Friday.
“The border with Rwanda is open but almost impassable because of the number of people trying to cross. It’s total chaos,” they said.
UN rights chief Volker Turk warned: “If nothing is done, the worst may be yet to come, for the people of the eastern DRC, but also beyond the country’s borders.”
Turk said nearly 3,000 people had been confirmed killed and 2,880 injured since M23 entered Goma on January 26, and that final tolls were likely much higher.
He also said his team was “currently verifying multiple allegations of rape, gang rape and sexual slavery.”
The M23 has already installed its own mayor and local authorities in Goma, the capital of North Kivu province.
It has vowed to go all the way to the national capital Kinshasa, even though it lies about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) away across the vast country, which is roughly the size of Western Europe.
The DRC army, which has a reputation for poor training and corruption, has been forced into multiple retreats.
The offensive has raised fears of regional war, given that several countries are engaged in supporting DRC militarily, including South Africa, Burundi and Malawi.
Regional foreign ministers gathered on Friday for the first day of the summit in Tanzania ahead of their leaders on Saturday.
Kenyan foreign secretary Musalia Mudavadi said there was a “golden opportunity” to find a solution, calling for the previous peace processes hosted by Angola and Kenya to be merged into one.


Tokyo Governor Koike looks to partnerships with Middle East countries

Updated 08 February 2025
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Tokyo Governor Koike looks to partnerships with Middle East countries

TOKYO: Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike is keen to reinforce relationships between Japan’s capital and partner cities in the Middle East following her trip to the region in November when she visited Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Her program in Cairo featured talks with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aati and Cairo Governor Ibrahim Saber, in addition to her attendance at the 12th World Urban Forum on sustainable urbanization where she stated: “I am moving Tokyo forward to a better future.”

Koike has also emphasized the role of startups in urban development. “As we enter a period of major change in the industrial structure, and startups drive global change and growth, it is vital to nurture and cooperate with startups that generate innovation,” she says.

Koike has been promoting SusHi Tech Tokyo, one of Asia’s largest startup conferences, aimed at creating sustainable new value with cutting-edge technology. In May, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government will host SusHi Tech Tokyo 2025, which is expected to bring together over 500 startups and investors, as well as at least 50,000 visitors from Japan and abroad, and result in more than 5,000 business negotiations.

“In May, we will hold SusHi Tech Tokyo 2025 to accelerate open innovation with challengers from around the world,” Koike said. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government and the Emirate of Abu Dhabi have signed an agreement on city-to-city cooperation in digital transformation and other practical areas, while Egyptian Communications and Information Minister Amr Talat told Koike that the startup and entrepreneurship sectors stand out as possible areas of cooperation between Egypt and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government.

Koike also met with Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Khalid bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and attended a promotion event in the UAE capital by several Tokyo startup companies specializing in sustainable materials, products and devices. The firms included a heatstroke-alarm watch maker and the world’s largest vertical indoor strawberry farm.

The future envisaged by Koike includes greater resilience against natural disasters. The Tokyo Resilience Project prepares Tokyo against increasingly intense and frequent heavy rains due to climate change and other natural disasters.

As part of the project, Tokyo is building huge “underground regulating reservoirs” connected to the sea to prevent flooding in urban areas and rivers from overflowing.

Tokyo is also committed to the goal of achieving zero emissions by 2050. “Tokyo will spearhead the social implementation of clean energy,” she stated.

Tokyo has also been promoting exchanges of high school students with Middle Eastern countries to raise youth awareness towards the creation of a multicultural inclusive society and to cultivate the mindset that encourages students to collaborate with others in solving global challenges.

Since 2022, the Tokyo Metropolitan Board of Education has dispatched 109 students from Tokyo metropolitan high schools to places such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Egypt and Turkey for the purpose of developing global human resources. At the same time, the board has invited high school students from the Middle East for international exchanges.

Another exchange in culture and science is the agreement between the Tokyo Metropolitan Library and the Bibliotheca Alexandria in Egypt to explore their cooperation in the AI-driven digital age.

• This article is based on a report from Noboru Sekiguchi, Tokyo Metropolitan Government Special Advisor to the Governor on International Affairs.


Federal judge blocks Elon Musk’s DOGE from accessing sensitive US Treasury Department material

Updated 08 February 2025
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Federal judge blocks Elon Musk’s DOGE from accessing sensitive US Treasury Department material

A federal judge early Saturday blocked Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency from accessing Treasury Department records that contain sensitive personal data such as Social Security and bank account numbers for millions of Americans.
US District Judge Paul Engelmayer issued the order after 19 Democratic attorneys general sued President Donald Trump. The case, filed in federal court in New York City, alleges the Trump administration allowed Musk’s team access to the Treasury Department’s central payment system in violation of federal law.
The payment system handles tax refunds, Social Security benefits, veterans’ benefits and much more, sending out trillions of dollars every year while containing an expansive network of Americans’ personal and financial data.
Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, also known as DOGE, was created to discover and eliminate what the Trump administration has deemed to be wasteful government spending.
DOGE’s access to Treasury records, as well as its inspection of various government agencies, has ignited widespread concern among critics over the increasing power of Musk, while supporters have cheered at the idea of reining in bloated government finances.
Musk has made fun of criticism of DOGE on his X social media platform while saying it is saving taxpayers millions of dollars.
New York Attorney General Letitia James, whose office filed the lawsuit, said DOGE’s access to the Treasury Department’s data raises security problems and the possibility for an illegal freeze in federal funds.
“This unelected group, led by the world’s richest man, is not authorized to have this information, and they explicitly sought this unauthorized access to illegally block payments that millions of Americans rely on, payments for health care, child care and other essential programs,” James said in a video message released by her office.
James, a Democrat who has been one of Trump’s chief antagonists, said the president does not have the power to give away American’s private information to anyone he chooses, and he cannot cut federal payments approved by Congress.
Also on the lawsuit are Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
The suit alleges that DOGE’s access to the Treasury records could interfere with funding already appropriated by Congress, which would exceed the Treasury Department’s statutory authority. The case also argues that the DOGE access violates federal administrative law and the US Constitution’s separation of powers doctrine.
It also accuses Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent of changing the department’s longstanding policy for protecting sensitive personally identifiable information and financial information to allow Musk’s DOGE team access to its payment systems.
“This decision failed to account for legal obligations to protect such data and ignored the privacy expectations of federal fund recipients,” including states, veterans, retirees, and taxpayers, the lawsuit says.
Connecticut Attorney General William Tong said it’s not clear what DOGE is doing with the information in the Treasury systems.
“This is the largest data breach in American history,” Tong said in a statement. “DOGE is an unlawfully constituted band of renegade tech bros combing through confidential records, sensitive data and critical payment systems. What could go wrong?”
The Treasury Department has said the review is about assessing the integrity of the system and that no changes are being made. According to two people familiar with the process, Musk’s team began its inquiry looking for ways to suspend payments made by the US Agency for International Development, which Trump and Musk are attempting to dismantle. The two people spoke with The Associated Press on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation.
Separately, Democratic lawmakers are seeking a Treasury Department investigation of DOGE’s access to the government’s payment system.
Also, labor unions and advocacy groups have sued to block the payments system review over concerns about its legality. A judge in Washington on Thursday temporarily restricted access to two employees with “read only” privileges.