LONDON: A poll conducted for Arab News by YouGov reveals that 87 percent of Arab Americans intend to vote in next month’s presidential election.
Since 2016, Arab-American participation in presidential elections has grown steadily. Eight years ago, 67 percent of those surveyed turned out to vote, rising to 79 percent in 2020. This year, only 6 percent said they will not bother voting, with 7 percent still undecided.
The intention to vote on Nov. 5 is stronger among men (92 percent) than women (81 percent). However, women’s engagement with the presidential election process has increased significantly since 2016, when 32 percent did not vote.
Since 2016, Arab-American participation in presidential elections has grown steadily. (AFP)
This fell to 26 percent in 2020, and now only 11 percent said they will not vote next month, with 8 percent still undecided.
Older respondents are more likely to vote, with 90 percent of those over 55 years of age signaling their intention to do so, compared with 84 percent of 18-34-year-olds.
Read our full coverage here: US Elections 2024: What Arab Americans want
Most likely to head to the polls are those who live in the west and south (where 92 and 91 percent respectively intend to vote), people educated up to post-graduate level (97 percent), and those on an annual salary of $80,000 or more (94 percent).
Overall, 80 percent of those polled believe their vote matters. Seventy-four percent of Arab-American women believe their vote matters, compared with 86 percent of men.
Historically, many Arab Americans have felt that their vote did not count for much, “but that’s no longer the case at all because of where that constituency is,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told the Arab News podcast “Frankly Speaking.”
Large Arab-American communities are found in “states like Michigan, that are going to be crucial, and even in Georgia (there is) a significant population and in Northern Virginia.
“So although the Arab-American community is relatively small — perhaps some 1 percent of the general American population — in elections so tightly contested as they are today, not only at the general national level but in the pivotal swing states like Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania, the margin here is 0.5 percent one way or the other, and that makes the Arab-American vote a crucial constituency to win.”
The poll shows that all candidates would be well advised not to take the Arab-American vote for granted — 84 percent say regardless of whether an election is looming, they keep up with political developments either most of the time (44 percent) or some of the time (40 percent).
