LONDON: The world is on the brink of a new age of electricity with fossil fuel demand set to peak by the end of the decade, meaning surplus oil and gas supplies could drive investment into green energy, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.
But it also flagged a high level of uncertainty as conflicts embroil the oil and gas-producing Middle East and Russia and as countries representing half of global energy demand have elections in 2024.
“In the second half of this decade, the prospect of more ample – or even surplus – supplies of oil and natural gas, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve, would move us into a very different energy world,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a release alongside its annual report.
Surplus fossil fuel supplies would likely lead to lower prices and could enable countries to dedicate more resources to clean energy, moving the world into an “age of electricity,” Birol said.
In the nearer term, there is also the possibility of reduced supplies should the Middle East conflict disrupt oil flows.
The IEA said such conflicts highlighted the strain on the energy system and the need for investment to speed up the transition to “cleaner and more secure technologies.”
A record high level of clean energy came online globally last year, the IEA said, including more than 560 gigawatts of renewable power capacity. Around $2 trillion is expected to be invested in clean energy in 2024, almost double the amount invested in fossil fuels.
In its scenario based on current government policies, global oil demand peaks before 2030 at just less than 102 million barrels/day, and then falls back to 2023 levels of 99 mb/d by 2035, largely because of lower demand from the transport sector as electric vehicle use increases.
The report also lays out the likely impact on future oil prices if stricter environmental policies are implemented globally to combat climate change.
In the IEA’s current policies scenario, oil prices decline to $75 per barrel in 2050 from $82 per barrel in 2023.
That compares to $25 per barrel in 2050 should government actions fall in line with the goal of cutting energy sector emissions to net zero by then.
Although the report forecasts an increase in demand for liquefied natural gas of 145 billion cubic meters between 2023 and 2030, it said this would be outpaced by an increase in export capacity of around 270 bcm over the same period.
“The overhang in LNG capacity looks set to create a very competitive market at least until this is worked off, with prices in key importing regions averaging $6.5-8 per million British thermal units, or mmBtu, to 2035,” the report said.
Asian LNG prices, regarded as an international benchmark are currently around $13 mmBtu.
‘Age of electricity’ to follow looming fossil fuel peak, IEA says
https://arab.news/gke85
‘Age of electricity’ to follow looming fossil fuel peak, IEA says
- Global oil demand to peak before 2030 at less than 102 million barrels/day
- LNG demand growth to be outpaced by capacity growth to 2030
Artificial intelligence is transitioning into a ‘digital employee’
- AI can be an effective tool, business leaders tell Arab News
- Not about jobs, but ‘convergence of human capital and AI’
RIYADH: Artificial intelligence is fundamentally reshaping the world of work, transitioning from a supporting tool to an active partner that is radically changing the nature of professions and productivity standards.
Amidst the current global transformations, an active regional digital environment is emerging.
This is being led by Saudi Arabia through Vision 2030 and massive investments in smart infrastructure, providing a living model for studying the implications of this partnership between humans and machines on the future of work in the region.
Arab News spoke to various business leaders about the emerging shape of the sector.
Salem Bagami, co-founder of Metatalent, said the ideal relationship between humans and machines at work should be complementary and collaborative.
Humans would bring creativity, emotional intelligence, and complex decision-making, while machines excel at processing big data and performing repetitive, precise tasks.
He believes that this type of balanced partnership would lead to unprecedented productivity and innovation.
Mohammad Al-Jallad, chief technologist and director at HPE, said AI has gone beyond being merely an executive tool to becoming a “digital employee” entrusted with automating routine tasks and providing insights based on data analysis.
He believes that the real opportunity lies not in the debate over job replacement, but in “the convergence of human capital and artificial intelligence.”
AI should augment human teams by taking on menial and routine tasks, enabling employees to focus on critical thinking, creativity, and ethical reasoning, significantly improving operational results.
Bagami also emphasized the complementary nature of this partnership. “The ideal relationship between humans and machines at work is one of collaboration, where each complements the others.”
He explained that humans bring creativity, emotional intelligence, and nuanced decision-making, while machines excel at processing big data and performing repetitive tasks efficiently, leading to increased productivity and innovation.
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Salem Alanazi, chairman of Jathwa Technology Co., notes a significant trend among Saudi Arabia companies toward using AI applications to provide faster services to customers at lower costs.
The emergence of the “virtual employee” available around the clock has eliminated the need for some traditional jobs in specific sectors.
Alanazi warns that some companies’ reluctance to adopt AI may expose them to real risks. “All those who hesitated to benefit from AI applications have a lack of understanding of these technologies.”
He said those who adopt these technologies will be able to offer lower-cost, higher-quality services, which will affect the market position of companies that lag behind.
Ali Aljumhour, CEO of VALUE Consultancy, said that the transition of AI into a partner has reshaped the list of most in-demand skills in the job market.
Skills such as “prompt engineering,” “human-machine integration,” and “digital ethics” are becoming increasingly important.
He added that AI has become an instantly available “technical knowledge base,” shifting the criteria for professional distinction toward those capable of smart interaction with these technologies.
In terms of ethics, transparency, and trust, Alanazi points to the complexities of global AI governance, where legislation overlaps and evolves rapidly to keep pace with potential risks, particularly in the areas of cybersecurity and privacy.
Al-Jallad emphasizes this crucial dimension, noting that providing responsible and reliable AI solutions that meet the highest standards of transparency is a key priority, especially in regulated sectors.
Bagami believes there should be basic standards for the ethical use of Al, emphasizing the need for transparency, accountability, and fairness, along with using diverse data sets to prevent bias and protect privacy.
He believes that building trust between humans and machines requires clear explanations of how systems work, giving users the opportunity to provide feedback and conducting periodic performance reviews.
On performance evaluation, Aljumhour said: “I expect radical changes in standards, shifting from measuring individual effort to evaluating the quality of the partnership between humans and machines.”
There should be a focus on the quality of inputs provided to intelligent systems, the accuracy of review and modification, and complex decision-making based on outputs.
He warns, however, of new risks that may arise, such as over-reliance on AI or difficulty in determining responsibility for mistakes.
In the employment sector, Aljumhour expects fundamental changes in standards.
There will be questions and tests focusing on measuring skills in dealing with AI, such as asking candidates about their experiences of collaborating with these systems, or testing their ability to formulate effective requests for complex tasks.
Aljumhour identifies significant human challenges in this transition, with “fear, loss of power, and exclusivity of knowledge” being the biggest concerns for experienced employees.
