Experts call for global cybersecurity rules, echoing nuclear age diplomacy

Massimo Marotti, managing director for Strategies and Cooperation at Italy’s National Cybersecurity Agency, highlighted the necessity of concrete collective efforts within Europe. AN photo
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Updated 02 October 2024
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Experts call for global cybersecurity rules, echoing nuclear age diplomacy

RIYADH: In light of rapidly advancing technology outpacing regulatory measures, experts at an event in Riyadh emphasized the steps needed to address cyber risks and foster responsible state behavior.

The Global Cybersecurity Forum showcased speakers discussing the evolving landscape of cyber diplomacy and the imperative for collective action.

Robin Geiss, director of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, noted that discussions around cybersecurity at the UN have been ongoing for over 25 years. “Technology is not that new for the UN anymore... it’s a dialogue between everyone,” he stated, underscoring that this dialogue serves as a confidence- and transparency-building measure.

Geiss pointed out the difficulty in measuring the impact of these dialogues, saying, “When things escalate, we see directly the cost of human life... But of course, we don’t see so clearly what we’ve prevented.” He stressed the complexities of keeping pace with technology, adding, “Diplomacy and progress at the multilateral level move at the speed of trust.”

Highlighting the current geopolitical climate, Geiss observed a significant trust deficit that complicates multilateral mechanisms in cybersecurity. “What we really need is more progress in action than in theory or proclamations,” he asserted. “We know what we need to do... So how do we move forward at the implementation stage? That is really the challenge.” He praised initiatives like the GCF that unite diverse entities and individuals, while emphasizing that universal bodies like the UN are essential for effective coordination.

Concrete effort

Massimo Marotti, managing director for Strategies and Cooperation at Italy’s National Cybersecurity Agency, highlighted the necessity of concrete collective efforts within Europe.

“You mentioned concrete effort—that’s exactly what we do at the European level. We have 27 agencies for cybersecurity, and our regular meetings lead to concrete measures,” Marotti said.

He cited a recent meeting in Athens, where they addressed the post-quantum cryptography threat, warning, “In a few years, the computer revolution will make all the codes and keys we use today useless unless we change them.” He emphasized the importance of coordinated action, as Europe’s interconnected infrastructure means insecurity in one nation can pose risks for others. Marotti also mentioned forthcoming European regulations designed to enhance cybersecurity across the continent, stating, “We also work with partner countries, not only the EU. For instance, we recently signed a cooperation agreement with Albania.”

Adam Hantman, deputy director of the Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy at the US Department of State, discussed ongoing global efforts to establish cybersecurity norms. “Essentially, what we’re doing here as a community is mapping out the rules of the road to govern a completely new domain,” he explained. He drew parallels to the dawn of the nuclear age, noting, “It took decades for the international community to establish norms and rules governing state roles in that space.”

Hantman emphasized the UN's critical role in cyber diplomacy and highlighted the Counter Ransomware Initiative in Washington, which now includes nearly 70 countries and organizations focused on combating ransomware.

In a separate panel, Heidi Crebo-Rediker, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, expressed skepticism about the UN as the central platform for cybersecurity discussions. “I think the UN’s probably not the right place, but there are a lot of mini-lateral spaces where this is very active,” she remarked, suggesting alternative frameworks may be more effective for addressing cybersecurity challenges.


With the Strait of Hormuz closed … how many days can the world withstand an oil disruption?

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With the Strait of Hormuz closed … how many days can the world withstand an oil disruption?

RIYADH: The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime routes for the energy sector, with roughly 20 million barrels of oil passing through it daily, or about 20 percent of global consumption. Large volumes of liquefied natural gas also transit the strait, particularly from Qatar to Asian markets.

Any disruption in this passage directly affects oil prices and the stability of global supplies.

How did the crisis begin?

Concerns over navigation security in the strait rose with escalating military tensions between Iran and Israel during 2025, followed by reciprocal attacks and threats targeting energy infrastructure and shipping routes.

As tensions spread across the Gulf, risks to commercial vessels and oil tankers increased, prompting shipping and insurance companies to exercise greater caution or reroute some ships.

These developments alarmed global markets because the strait is not just an ordinary shipping lane, but a global energy bottleneck relied upon by oil exports from Gulf countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, as well as Saudi Arabia.

How much oil can the world replace if the strait is blocked?

If oil flow through the strait were to stop completely, global energy consumption would not halt immediately, because major countries maintain commercial and strategic oil reserves for emergencies, according to the Financial Analysis Unit at Al-Eqtisadiah.

According to the International Energy Agency, reserves held by the 38 countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, totaled around 2.83 billion barrels by the end of October. Based on the consumption of these countries, these stocks could cover roughly 61.8 days, according to an OPEC report.

These reserves are concentrated in a limited number of nations, with the US holding one of the largest commercial and strategic oil stockpiles in the world, estimated at about 1.68 billion barrels of strategic and commercial oil. Its crude oil reserves alone could last approximately 50 to 53 days if fully relied upon; however, actual supply depends on the maximum withdrawal capacity.

China maintains reserves exceeding 1.2 billion barrels, enough for roughly three months, while Japan keeps a stockpile covering more than 200 days of its oil imports.

Despite these large reserves, they are insufficient to fully replace the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz over an extended period, as the strait handles roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily.

A complete stoppage could initially be mitigated by drawing on global reserves, offsetting a significant portion of the shortfall. However, this measure would likely only provide relief for a few months before markets face increasing supply pressures and sharp price spikes.

Factors that could ease the crisis

Several factors may help reduce the impact of any disruption in the strait. First is the presence of alternative pipelines bypassing the strait, such as the Saudi pipeline that transports oil from the eastern region to the Red Sea. Some countries also have spare production capacity that can partially offset shortages.

Industrialized countries can further coordinate withdrawals from strategic reserves through the IAE, a measure used previously during oil market crises.