Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

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Updated 30 September 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

  • Far from deepening sectarianism, Israeli strikes are creating solidarity between Lebanon’s factions, says health minister
  • Dr. Firass Abiad accuses Israel of refusing to negotiate an end to conflict and of committing war crimes by killing health personnel

DUBAI: Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on his Beirut stronghold over the weekend, was the author of deep divisions in Lebanon, which have long threatened to drag the nation back into the mire of civil war.

Since the latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah suddenly escalated in mid-September, reports have circulated on social media about flare-ups in sectarian tensions in different parts of Lebanon as a result of mass displacement of people from the south.

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split in society, as even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s support base, now appear to oppose the militia’s actions.

“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose the politics and what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“This is across the board. This is not sectarian, (it’s) among all sects, including Shittes, you have people who oppose Hezbollah.”




Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split, even as many Shiites appear to oppose Hezbollah’s actions. (AN photo)

At the same time, however, Abiad said Israel’s strikes on Lebanon had created a spirit of solidarity across Lebanon’s multiconfessional society, similar to the sympathy generated across the Arab world for the Palestinians — even among those who oppose Hamas — in the wake of Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“What Israel is doing by these indiscriminate attacks, when they attack a Christian or even when they are attacking Shiite areas … this will only increase the feeling of solidarity with the community where Hezbollah is based,” he said.

“We’ve seen this also with Gaza. If you look at the Arab world, the support for Hamas is not high. But when people see the atrocities, the carnage that Israel is perpetrating in Gaza, I think that, unanimously, a lot of people have a lot of sympathy with the people of Palestine.

“And Israel, in the way it is conducting its war on Lebanon, has fostered this environment of solidarity.”

Abiad said this sense of solidarity was evident on Sept. 16 and 17, when Hezbollah communication devices, including pagers and walkie-talkies, exploded simultaneously in a coordinated attack blamed on Israel that killed at least 32 and injured more than 3,000.

“You could see this on the day of the attack on the explosive devices,” said Abiad. “We at the Ministry of Health were sending patients all across the country because we had to have a full response from all hospitals.

“And even when we were sending patients into hospitals that were in areas that are politically, or from a religious perspective, diametrically opposite to Hezbollah, the people who were injured were welcomed, they were cared for, they were given attention.




An ambulance brings injured Lebanese to the AUB Medical Center, on Sept. 17 after beeper blasts targeted Hezbollah operatives. (File/AFP)

“This is something that Israel has repeatedly failed to understand; that its indiscriminate targeting or its dehumanization of all, for example, Arabs, or communities, would only lead to more sympathy with the ‘said’ enemies.”

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah had been killed in an Israeli strike on the group’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut. The attack follows days of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, which, as of Saturday, had left 1,030 people — including 156 women and 87 children — dead.

Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel last October in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza. Israel retaliated by mounting strikes on Hezbollah targets.

Since mid-September, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets across the country have rapidly escalated. However, the roots of the conflict run deeper than last October. The two sides have been locked in an intermittent confrontation since the Lebanese civil war.

Hezbollah was formed during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Major escalations occurred in 1993, 1996, and particularly in 2006, when a full-scale war erupted, causing significant destruction in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has since strengthened its military capabilities, while maintaining its role in Lebanese politics. Tensions continued, with periodic border clashes, as the group has evolved into a key player in the broader Israel-Iran proxy conflict.

Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2000, creating the possibility of stability for Lebanon. However, territorial disputes remained, which Hezbollah exploited to build support and to justify continued resistance to Israel.

Does a share of the blame for the continuation of hostilities, therefore, belong to Hezbollah?

“No, that’s the exact opposite,” said Abiad. “If you go back to the UN resolutions — especially 1701. In 1701, it was very clear that, first of all, Israel has to withdraw from all the areas in Lebanon, which did not happen. And up till now, Israel still occupies Lebanese territory.”




Medical staff at a hospital care for victims after the Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburb last week. (File/AFP)

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending the Lebanon War. It demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of Lebanese and UN peacekeeping troops to stabilize the region and prevent future conflict.

“Secondly, it very clearly mentioned that Israel should not violate Lebanese airspace, which also did not happen; Israel has been violating Lebanese airspace continuously since the 2000 partial withdrawal from Lebanon,” said Abiad.

“So, indeed, unfortunately, these actions by Israel gave the pretext for Hezbollah to continue today what it is doing now. But let’s be very clear, Israel didn’t fulfill that part of 1701. And even now, Lebanon is saying we are ready to abide by the UN Security Council resolutions.”

One particularly irksome issue relates to the Shebaa Farms — a dispute that centers on a small strip of land claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967.

While Israel and the UN consider it part of Syria’s Golan Heights, Lebanon argues the area is Lebanese, fueling tensions, especially involving Hezbollah, over its sovereignty.

Given what is now occurring in Lebanon, does Abiad believe continuing the Shebaa Farms dispute with Israel has been worthwhile? Surely a negotiated deal would have been a far better option?

“But that depends on the other party accepting a negotiation,” said Abiad. “And, up to now, it has been very clear that Israel is not interested in a negotiated outcome.”

Whoever is ultimately to blame for prolonging the conflict, the result today is mass displacement, civilians killed, thousands injured, and public health system under extreme strain.

The ongoing conflict has created a massive humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement across the country. According to the Lebanese government’s estimates, nearly 500,000 people have been forced to flee their homes due to escalating violence.

Abiad highlighted the magnitude of the displacement from the south. “Before the attacks, the number released by the disaster management side was 130,000 displaced,” he said.

“Remember that by that time, there was an escalation of hostilities by Israel, and the populations were internally displaced still into southern areas.”

Abiad said the Lebanese government has established 400 public shelters, which currently house about 70,000 people. However, he said the total number of displaced people is far higher.

“We estimate that usually, from our past experience in the 2006 war, the number of people, whether they are living with friends, family, in homes they rented, or even across the border into neighboring countries, is four to five times as many as there are in shelters,” he said.

“And that’s why we really believe that the tally of people who have been displaced is probably around 400,000 to 500,000.”

The pressure on hospitals, in particular, is reaching breaking point.

“The daily tally of casualties keeps rising, as hospitals get overwhelmed with casualties,” said Abiad. “Can we continue all this? The answer is we are working at nearly full capacity, I would say. And it is becoming more tough as the war drags on.”




“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose ... what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Dr. Firass Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

He added: “I think the most challenging would be fuel. I think that, concerning nurses, hospital beds, medical supplies, medications, as I said, we have been stocking up on our inventory. But really, fuel is going to be a critical issue.

“Hospitals, ambulances, they all require fuel to function. Now we have been increasing the renewable-energy budgets in our hospitals — 15 of our public hospitals now have renewable energy, constituting almost 40 percent of their energy requirements.

“Almost 200 of our primary health care centers now completely can work or function on renewable energy. But clearly I would say fuel is going to be critical if there is a further escalation.”

On top of this, Abiad accused Israel of deliberately targeting medical personnel — something he says constitutes a war crime.

“Do we consider this a war crime? Of course, we consider this a war crime,” said Abiad, adding that this was not just the view of the Lebanese government but echoed by international legal bodies.

“When we listen to the International Court of Justice, these are the experts on what is international humanitarian law and whether it has been violated. So these are the experts telling us that what Israel is doing constitutes war crimes.”
 

 


UN condemns Israel’s ‘unlawful air strike’ on West Bank camp which killed 18

Updated 16 sec ago
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UN condemns Israel’s ‘unlawful air strike’ on West Bank camp which killed 18

The Israeli army said the raid in Tulkarem had succeeded in killing “at least seven terrorists,” including a Hamas leader and an Islamic Jihad member
“The strike is part of a highly concerning pattern of unlawful use of force by ISF during military-like operations in the West Bank,” the UN rights office said

TULKAREM, Palestinian Territories: The United Nations on Friday condemned what it called an “unlawful air strike” by Israel on a refugee camp in the occupied West Bank that the Palestinian health ministry said killed 18 people the previous day.
Described as the deadliest air strike in over two decades in the West Bank, the Israeli army said the raid in Tulkarem had succeeded in killing “at least seven terrorists,” including a Hamas leader and an Islamic Jihad member, who were discussing an “imminent terror plan.”
The United Nations Human Rights Office slammed the strike, calling it “unlawful.”
“The strike is part of a highly concerning pattern of unlawful use of force by ISF (Israeli security forces) during military-like operations in the West Bank that have caused widespread harm to Palestinians,” the UN rights office said in a statement.
“The levelling of an entire building filled with people via aerial bombing shows flagrant disregard for Israel’s obligations.”
On Friday, hundreds gathered for a public funeral in Tulkarem, where the bodies of the dead were carried through the streets as people waved flags and fired guns into the air.
Several armed fighters, masked and dressed in black, attended the funeral, an AFP journalist reported.
“We hope that all Palestinian people will join hands, as we have one cause,” Nasser Kharyoush, a father of one of the victims of the raid, told AFP.
Tulkarem was one of the towns and Palestinian refugee camps targeted during a large-scale Israeli military operation in late August against militants based in the West Bank.
Violence in the West Bank has surged alongside the war in Gaza which began after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7.
Since the Hamas attack, Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 701 Palestinians in the West Bank, according to the Palestinian health ministry.
At least 24 Israelis, including members of the security forces, have been killed in Palestinian militant attacks during the same period, Israeli officials say.
The United Nations rights office said Thursday’s strike came when there were “no clashes or confrontations” at the site.
“The air strike completely destroyed the targeted building and also damaged nearby houses,” it said.
“More fatalities may be trapped under the rubble, but recovery and identification are proving difficult in light of the massive impact of the blast.”
Major Israeli operations in the West Bank are sometimes occurring “at a scale not witnessed in the last two decades,” United Nations human rights chief Volker Turk said last month.
Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967, and its forces regularly make incursions into Palestinian communities.
But the current raids as well as comments by Israeli officials mark an escalation.

US, UK warplanes attack Houthi targets in Sanaa, Dhamar, Hodeidah

Updated 33 min 36 sec ago
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US, UK warplanes attack Houthi targets in Sanaa, Dhamar, Hodeidah

  • Strikes mostly on military bases, according to media reports
  • Militia supporters rally in Sanaa in show of solidarity with people of Palestine

AL-MUKALLA: American and British warplanes on Friday launched a series of strikes against Houthi targets in several Yemeni cities, the latest round of military operations against the militia in response to its attacks on ships.
The Houthi-run Al-Masirah TV said the “aggression” planes conducted four strikes on Al-Thawra district in Sanaa, one south of the central city of Dhamar, and seven on Hodeida airport and the Al-Katheeb region in the western city of Hodeidah.
Photographs and videos posted on social media show large, thick balls of smoke billowing from locations in Sanaa and Hodeidah.
Local media said the airstrikes targeted the Houthi’s Al-Saeyanah base in Sanaa, Al-Katheeb naval base in Hodeidah and a military base in Dhamar.
The Aden Al-Ghad news site said three strikes were launched against positions in the Mukayras region of the central province of Al-Bayda, while residents in the southern province of Dhale reported seeing three missiles flying overhead in the direction of the Arabian Sea.
The attacks happened as thousands of Houthi supporters rallied in the streets of Sanaa and other areas to express solidarity with the people of Palestine and Lebanon and opposition to Israel’s war, and to condemn Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Houthi government spokesperson Hashem Sharaf Al-Din condemned the airstrikes, describing them as a “desperate attempt” by the US and UK to pressure the militia into ending its attacks on ships and missile and drone attacks against Israel in support for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Since January, the US and UK militaries have launched repeated strikes on Sanaa, Hodeidah, Taiz and other Yemeni areas held by the Houthis, targeting drone and missile launchers, storage facilities and ammunition depots.
The latest followed a spate of Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea over the past week.
On Sunday, Israeli warplanes struck ports, power stations and fuel tanks in Hodeidah after the Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Israel on Saturday.


Erdogan lashes out at Israel for attack on UN chief

Updated 04 October 2024
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Erdogan lashes out at Israel for attack on UN chief

  • Israel “is shamelessly challenging UN Secretary-General Guterres,” Erdogan said
  • “196 countries in the world will stand by the UN secretary-general” against Israel

ISTANBUL: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday accused Israel of “shamelessly” attacking UN chief Antonio Guterres by declaring him “persona non grata” for not quickly condemning Iran’s ballistic missile barrage.
Israel “is shamelessly challenging UN Secretary-General Guterres,” Erdogan told an audience at a defense technology fair in the southern province of Adana.
He added that “196 countries in the world will stand by the UN secretary-general” against Israel.
Relations between the UN and Israel have been difficult since Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which sparked the Gaza war.
On Wednesday, Guterres was declared persona non grata by Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, accusing him of failing to specifically condemn Iran’s missile attack on the country this week. Katz called Guterres an “anti-Israel secretary-general who lends support to terrorists, rapists, and murderers.”
“Anyone who cannot unequivocally condemn Iran’s heinous attack on Israel does not deserve to step foot on Israeli soil,” Katz said in a statement.
Guterres pointedly condemned Iran’s attack at a UN Security Council meeting on Wednesday.
The Security Council on Thursday offered its full support to Guterres.
Without naming Israel, the council’s five permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — and 10 non-permanent members “underscored the need for all member states to have a productive and effective relationship with the secretary-general.”


US arranges flights to bring Americans out of Lebanon as others seek escape

Updated 04 October 2024
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US arranges flights to bring Americans out of Lebanon as others seek escape

  • Some officials and community leaders in Michigan, home to the nation’s largest concentration of Arab Americans, are calling on the US to start an evacuation
  • Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said: “The US military is, of course, on the ready and has a whole wide range of plans”

WASHINGTON: US-arranged flights have brought about 350 Americans and their immediate relatives out of Lebanon this week during escalated fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, while thousands of others still there face airstrikes and diminishing commercial flights.
In Washington, senior State Department and White House officials met Thursday with two top Arab American officials to discuss US efforts to help American citizens leave Lebanon. The two leaders also separately met with officials from the Department of Homeland Security.
Michigan state Rep. Alabas Farhat and Abed Ayoub, executive director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, used the White House meeting to “really drive home a lot of important points about the issues our community members are facing on the ground and a lot of the logistical problems that they’re encountering with it when it comes to this evacuation,” Ayoub said.
Some officials and community leaders in Michigan, home to the nation’s largest concentration of Arab Americans, are calling on the US to start an evacuation. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said that was not being considered right now.
“The US military is, of course, on the ready and has a whole wide range of plans. Should we need to evacuate American citizens out of Lebanon, we absolutely can,” Singh told reporters.
Israel has opened a pounding air campaign deep into Lebanon and a ground incursion in the country’s south targeting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group. Iran on Tuesday fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles toward Israel, leaving the region bracing for any Israeli retaliation and fearing an all-out regional war.
Israel and Hezbollah have traded fire across the Lebanon border almost daily since the day after Hamas, another Iranian-backed militant group, attacked Israel on Oct. 7, triggering the war in Gaza.
Other countries, from Greece to the United Kingdom, Japan and Colombia, have arranged flights or sent military planes to ferry out their citizens.
As Israeli bombardments targeting senior Hezbollah leaders shook southern neighborhoods in Lebanon’s capital last week, “We could still see, hear and feel everything” despite fleeing to the mountains outside Beirut, said Nicolette Hutcherson, a longtime humanitarian volunteer living in Lebanon with her husband and three children.
The only seats Hutcherson’s family could find on commercial carriers were for flights weeks away and for thousands of dollars, she said. Ultimately, Hutcherson and her young children joined crowds heading to Lebanon’s Mediterranean marinas, finding spots on pleasure boats turned evacuation ships for the nine-hour ride to Cyprus.
Her husband was able to find a single seat out on a plane days later to join them.
Another American family was mourning Kamel Ahmad Jawad, a resident of metro Detroit’s Dearborn area, who was killed in southern Lebanon on Tuesday. Family members said he stayed to help civilians too old, infirm or poor to flee.
He had been on the phone with his daughter Tuesday when the impact of a strike knocked him off his feet, his daughter, Nadine Kamel Jawad, said in a statement.
“He simply got up, found his phone, and told me he needed to finish praying in case another strike hit him,” she said.
The State Department has been telling Americans for almost a year not to travel to Lebanon and advising them to leave the country on commercial flights for months. It also has made clear that government-run evacuations are rare, while offering emergency loans to aid travel out of Lebanon.
Some Americans said relatives who are US citizens or green-card holders have been struggling for days or weeks to get seats on flights out of Lebanon. Limits on withdrawing money from banks due to Lebanon’s longstanding economic collapse and intermittent electricity and Internet have made it difficult, they said.
Rebecca Abou-Chedid, a lawyer based in Washington, paid $5,000 to get a female relative on the last seat of a flight out of Beirut on Saturday.
“She was on her way to the airport” when Israeli began one of its first days of intensified bombing, Abou-Chedid said.
By Thursday, some Americans said their loved ones had been able to secure tickets for upcoming flights and were hopeful.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the US would continue to organize flights as long the security situation in Lebanon is dire and there is demand.
Miller said Lebanon’s flag carrier, Middle East Airlines, also had set aside about 1,400 seats on flights for Americans over the past week. Several hundred had taken them, he said.
Miller could not speak to the cost of the airline’s flights, over which the US government has no regulatory oversight, but said the maximum fare that would be charged for a US-organized contract flight would be $283 per person.
More than 6,000 American citizens have contacted the US Embassy in Beirut seeking information about departing the country over the past week.
Not all of those have actually sought assistance in leaving, and Miller said the department understood that some Americans, many of them dual US-Lebanese nationals and longtime residents of the country, may choose to stay.
Miller said the embassy is prepared to offer temporary loans to Americans who choose to remain in Lebanon but want to relocate to a potentially safer area of the country. The embassy also would provide emergency loans to Americans who wish to leave on the US-contracted flights.


Israeli bombardment kills 29 people in Gaza, militants renew rocket fire into Israel

Updated 04 October 2024
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Israeli bombardment kills 29 people in Gaza, militants renew rocket fire into Israel

  • The new rocket salvoes indicated that Hamas-led militant factions in Gaza are still able to fire projectiles into Israel

CAIRO: Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip killed at least 29 Palestinians on Friday, medics said, and sirens blared in southern Israel in response to renewed rocket fire from militants in the Palestinian enclave.
The new rocket salvoes indicated that Hamas-led militant factions in Gaza are still able to fire projectiles into Israel despite a year-long Israeli aerial and ground offensive that has turned wide areas of the enclave into wasteland.
On Friday, the Israeli military said sirens sounded in southern Israel for the first time in around two months.
“Almost a year after Oct. 7, Hamas is still threatening our civilians with their terrorism and we will continue operating against them,” it added, referring to the anniversary of Hamas’ cross-border attack that touched off the Gaza war.