A war with Hezbollah may be looming. Is Israel prepared?

Israeli firefighters work to extinguish a fire after a rocket fired from Lebanon hit an open field in northern Israel, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP)
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Updated 19 September 2024
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A war with Hezbollah may be looming. Is Israel prepared?

  • Israeli media reported Wednesday that the government has not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon

JERUSALEM: With Israel’s defense minister announcing a “new phase” of the war and an apparent Israeli attack setting off explosions in electronic devices in Lebanon, the specter of all-out combat between Israel and Hezbollah seems closer than ever before.
Hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflict appear to be fading quickly as Israel signals a desire to change the status quo in the country’s north, where it has exchanged cross-border fire with Hezbollah since the Lebanese militant group began attacking on Oct. 8, a day after the war’s opening salvo by Hamas.
In recent days, Israel has moved a powerful fighting force up to the northern border, officials have escalated their rhetoric, and the country’s security Cabinet has designated the return of tens of thousands of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel an official war goal.
Here’s a look at how Israel is preparing for a war with Lebanon:
Troops drawn from Gaza to the northern border
While the daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated on several occasions, the bitter enemies have been careful to avoid an all-out war.
That appears to be changing — especially after pagers, walkie-talkies, solar equipment and other devices exploded in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, killing at least 20 and wounding thousands in a sophisticated attack Hezbollah blamed on Israel.
“You don’t do something like that, hit thousands of people, and think war is not coming,” said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who leads Israel Defense and Security Forum, a group of hawkish former military commanders. “Why didn’t we do it for 11 months? Because we were not willing to go to war yet. What’s happening now? Israel is ready for war.”
As fighting in Gaza has slowed, Israel has fortified forces along the border with Lebanon, including the arrival this week of a powerful army division that took part in some of the heaviest fighting in Gaza.
The 98th Division is believed to include thousands of troops, including paratrooper infantry units and artillery and elite commando forces specially trained for operations behind enemy lines. Their deployment was confirmed by an official with knowledge of the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss troop movements.
The division played a key role in Gaza, spearheading the army’s operations in the southern city of Khan Younis, a Hamas stronghold. The offensive inflicted heavy losses on Hamas fighters and tunnels, but also wreaked massive damage, sent thousands of Palestinians fleeing and resulted in scores of civilian deaths. Israel says Hamas endangers civilians by hiding in residential areas.
The military also said it staged a series of drills this week along the border.
“The mission is clear,” said Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, who heads Israel’s Northern Command. “We are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible.”
A ‘new phase’ of war
The military movements have been accompanied by heightened rhetoric from Israel’s leaders, who say their patience is running thin.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday night declared the start of a ” new phase” of the war as Israel turns its focus toward Hezbollah. “The center of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces,” he said.
He spoke a day after Israel’s Cabinet made the return of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel a formal goal of the war. The move was largely symbolic — Israeli leaders have long pledged to bring those residents home. But elevating the significance of the aim signaled a tougher stance.
After meeting Wednesday with top security officials, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “We will return the residents of the north securely to their homes.”
Netanyahu delivered a similarly tough message with a top US envoy sent to the region this week to soothe tensions.
An official with knowledge of the encounter told The Associated Press that the envoy, Amos Hochstein, told Netanyahu that intensifying the conflict with Hezbollah would not help return evacuated Israelis back home.
Netanyahu, according to a statement from his office, told Hochstein that residents cannot return without “a fundamental change in the security situation in the north.” The statement said that while Netanyahu “appreciates and respects” US support, Israel will “do what is necessary to safeguard its security.”
Is war inevitable?
Israeli media reported Wednesday that the government has not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon.
Much, it seems, will depend on Hezbollah’s response. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is expected to deliver a major speech on Thursday.
But public sentiment in Israel seems to be supportive of tougher action against Hezbollah.
A recent poll by the Israeli Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank, found that 67 percent of Jewish respondents thought Israel should intensify its response to Hezbollah. The majority believed Israel should launch a deep offensive that includes striking Lebanese infrastructure.
“There’s a lot of pressure from the society to go to war and win,” said Avivi, the retired general. “Unless Hezbollah tomorrow morning says, ‘OK, we got the message. We’re pulling out of south Lebanon,’ war is imminent.”
Such a war would almost certainly prove devastating to both sides.
Already, more than 500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes since Oct. 8, most of them fighters with Hezbollah and other armed groups but also more than 100 civilians. In northern Israel, at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed by strikes from Lebanon.
Israel inflicted heavy damage on Lebanon during a monthlong war against Hezbollah in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Israeli leaders have threatened even tougher action this time around, vowing to repeat the scenes of destruction from Gaza in Lebanon.
But Hezbollah also has built up its capabilities since 2006. Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, some believed to have guidance systems that could threaten sensitive targets in Israel. It has also developed an increasingly sophisticated fleet of drones.
Capable of striking all parts of Israel, Hezbollah could bring life in Israel to a standstill and send hundreds of thousands of Israelis fleeing.


Humanitarian chiefs say Israel failed to meet US deadline for allowing aid into Gaza

Updated 11 sec ago
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Humanitarian chiefs say Israel failed to meet US deadline for allowing aid into Gaza

  • Aid organizations call on Washington to suspend arms sales to Israel and impose security restrictions, as required by US law
  • Oxfam America accuses Israeli authorities of a ‘campaign of ethnic cleansing’ in northern Gaza

NEW YORK CITY: Israel has failed to meet critical Gaza-related humanitarian demands set by the US government, according to a report published jointly by eight major humanitarian organizations.
The failure comes “at an enormous human cost for Palestinian civilians” in the enclave, where the humanitarian situation “is now at its worst point” since the war began in October 2023, they said.
Their assessment comes a month after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin sent a letter to Israeli officials demanding the implementation of concrete measures to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza within 30 days.
This deadline passed on Tuesday with no significant signs of progress. Instead, Israeli forces have accelerated their efforts “to bombard, depopulate, deprive and erase the Palestinian population of the North Gaza governorate,” said Abby Maxman, the president of Oxfam America.
“We are witnessing a campaign of ethnic cleansing,” she added. “Oxfam and partner organizations are unable to provide any support to the remaining civilians in the North Gaza governorate, where people are dying every day.
“Access to the rest of Gaza is also severely restricted, with civilians facing starvation and relentless violence. The US must finally make this overdue call to suspend deadly arms sales to Israel or be complicit in the horrific atrocities unfolding before our eyes.”
The aid organizations that contributed to the report, which also include Refugees International, Save the Children and MedGlobal, called on Washington to make an “immediate determination” that Israel is in violation of its assurances under US and international law, and to suspend arms sales and impose restrictions on security cooperation, as required by US law.
The report also urges the American government to press for immediate humanitarian pauses in military operations, the opening of more routes for deliveries of aid, and efforts to ensure civilians and medical facilities are protected.
“With experts again projecting imminent famine in northern Gaza, there is no time to lose,” said Jeremy Konyndyk, president of Refugees International. The report “clearly demonstrates that the Israeli government is violating its obligations (to) facilitate humanitarian relief for suffering Palestinians in Gaza,” he added.
Zaher Sahloul, the president and co-founder of MedGlobal, said the organization’s local medical teams and international volunteers in Gaza have personally witnessed “the complete failure by the Israeli authorities to ensure the delivery of critical supplies, including food, water and medicines, and to protect civilians and medical spaces.”
He added: “Our teams are living through the relentless bombing of hospitals, and our medics continue to treat wounded women and children every day. These are egregious violations of the cornerstone principle of international humanitarian law, which protects civilians in time of war.”
Sahloul called on the Biden administration to “do everything possible to push for the full provision of aid to Gaza’s desperate people.”
In addition to the medical crisis, the blockade of Gaza has severely limited the ability of humanitarian organizations to deliver aid. The report says convoys are still often blocked, delayed or looted, and access to key parts of the territory, especially in the north, remains severely restricted.
“I witnessed during my visit to Gaza last week the deliberate starvation of almost 2 million civilians, while the bombardment continues,” said Jan Egelan, secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council.
“There is barely any aid crossing into Gaza. The little that does get through is often looted, as the occupying power has obliterated the Palestinian police and refuses to secure, or provide secure access routes to, places where humanitarian organizations could distribute aid to a starving population.”
Tjada D’Oyen McKenna, the CEO of Mercy Corps, said the US government must do “everything in its power to ensure the unfettered provision of essential aid to people in desperate need.”
The report highlights the dire food insecurity among the population of Gaza. Janti Soeripto, the president of Save the Children, said: “Systemic impediments to the humanitarian system are making a deadly conflict even deadlier.
“Enough is enough. The facts are there. Adults have been failing children for over a year. What more will it take?”
With winter and famine looming, the organizations warned that children in particular are at imminent risk, with many of them already suffering the effects of malnutrition.
Sean Carroll, the president and CEO of American Near East Refugee Aid, said the organization’s “humanitarian workers in Gaza have spent the past year expending superhuman effort in subhuman conditions to provide assistance to civilians.”
He added: “In the past month, we’ve seen families throughout Gaza, and particularly in the north, subjected to increasingly horrific conditions. This is a damning indictment of Israel’s failure to follow international humanitarian law and to respond to the critical and reasonable demands of its greatest ally, the United States. The consequences will be more innocent lives ended and destroyed.
“They should also include restrictions on Israel’s ability to continue prosecution of this war in a manner that is increasingly being seen as consistent with ethnic cleansing.”
The report warns that with more than 2 million civilians in Gaza facing starvation, daily bombardments and lack of access to the basic necessities of life, the humanitarian situation in the territory is on the brink of catastrophe.
“There is no time to lose,” it concludes.


US defense contractor ordered to pay $42m to Iraqis tortured at Abu Ghraib

Updated 9 min 35 sec ago
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US defense contractor ordered to pay $42m to Iraqis tortured at Abu Ghraib

  • Virginia-based CACI Premier Technology was found liable for its role in the torture

WASHINGTON: A federal jury on Tuesday ordered a US defense contractor to pay $42 million in damages to three Iraqi men who were tortured at Abu Ghraib prison, their lawyers said.
Virginia-based CACI Premier Technology was found liable for its role in the torture of the men at the prison in 2003 and 2004, the Center for Constitutional Rights said.


Sudan is experiencing some of the most extreme violence in 18 months of war, UN warns

Updated 52 min 26 sec ago
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Sudan is experiencing some of the most extreme violence in 18 months of war, UN warns

  • Need for international unity to help end the civil war is ‘blindingly clear,’ says organization’s political chief 
  • At least 20,000 people have been killed during the conflict, thousands more injured and millions displaced 

NEW YORK CITY: The UN warned on Tuesday that the civil war in Sudan, which began in April 2023, continues to inflict “unrelenting violence and suffering” on millions of civilians in the country. 

It said that as clashes between two rival factions of the military government, the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, continue unabated, the latest wave of attacks by the latter in the eastern state of Al-Gazira has been marked by “some of the most extreme violence witnessed in the past 18 months.” 

Rosemarie DiCarlo, the UN’s undersecretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs, told a meeting of the Security Council on Tuesday, that Sudan is “trapped in a nightmare,” as she condemned recent atrocities that have resulted in large numbers of civilian deaths. 

During more than a year-and-a-half of conflict, at least 20,000 people have been killed and more than 33,000 injured. The war has created the worst displacement crisis in the world; more than 11 million people have fled their homes to other parts of Sudan, and 3 million have sought refuge in neighboring countries. 

Human rights groups have reported horrific violations of international law as the warring factions continue to wreak havoc across the country, including widespread sexual violence primarily targeting women and girls. 

Describing the violence as “appalling,” DiCarlo condemned relentless attacks by the RSF and indiscriminate SAF airstrikes on populated areas. 

“This is a man-made disaster. Both warring parties bear responsibility for the atrocities and must be held accountable,” she said as she called for an immediate ceasefire to protect civilians. 

Ramesh Rajasingham, director of the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, warned of widespread food insecurity in the war-ravaged country.  

Conditions are particularly troubling in Darfur and Khartoum, he said, where thousands have died and malnutrition rates are surging, especially among children. 

According to his office, there are rising levels of malnutrition in the Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur, which was already facing famine conditions, affecting 34 percent of children, 10 percent of whom are severely malnourished. 

Rajasingham stressed the urgent need for improved humanitarian access, as many conflict zones remain completely cut off or are difficult to reach because of difficult or delayed procedures. While the opening of the Adre border crossing from Chad has helped to provide “vital relief,” he said this alone is not sufficient given the scale of the crisis. 

Humanitarian organizations require safe, unimpeded access so that they can deliver aid, he added as he called for agreements on humanitarian pauses in the fighting so that assistance can be delivered and civilians can move safely out of conflict zones. 

Rajasingham also urged the international community to provide flexible financial support for relief operations, and to push for a ceasefire agreement. 

“The conditions are there for the conflict to claim even more lives,” he warned as he called for an “immediate shift” in the way the international community is responding to the unfolding crisis. 

Despite international pressure, there has been little progress toward peace talks. Both the RSF and the SAF continue to escalate their military operations, bolstered by external support including a steady flow of weapons into the country. 

“Certain purported allies of the parties are enabling the slaughter in Sudan,” DiCarlo said as she called for this “unconscionable and illegal” external support that is fueling the violence to end. 

Efforts to mediate the conflict have been fragmented to date. The international community has struggled to present a unified front and the warring factions have profited from this lack of unity. 

However, DiCarlo pointed to a glimmer of hope in the form of ongoing efforts by the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development to restore a process for political dialogue and facilitate a peaceful resolution to the conflict. 

She also acknowledged the work being done by the Aligned for Advancing Lifesaving and Peace in Sudan Group to promote key peace initiatives, including the Jeddah Declaration, which aims to establish mechanisms for protect civilians. 

“The need for greater convergence is blindingly clear,” DiCarlo said. With the conflict showing no sign of abating, she also called for the implementation of local ceasefire agreements to offer some respite to civilians. 

The UN has also proposed the establishment of a compliance mechanism, she added, to hold the warring parties accountable for their commitments to the protection of civilians under the Jeddah Declaration.


Lebanon rocket fire kills two in Israel: first responders

Updated 12 November 2024
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Lebanon rocket fire kills two in Israel: first responders

  • Emergency medic Dor Vakinin said a rocket hit a warehouse and that emergency teams arrived on the scene “quickly“
  • “There was a lot of destruction and an active fire,” he said

JERUSALEM: Rocket fire from Lebanon on Tuesday killed two men in their 40s in northern Israel, close to the town of Nahariya, first responders said.
Emergency medic Dor Vakinin said a rocket hit a warehouse and that emergency teams arrived on the scene “quickly.”
“There was a lot of destruction and an active fire,” he said. “We performed medical examinations on two men who were lying unconscious and suffering from severe injuries to their bodies. Unfortunately their injuries were too severe and after the examinations, we had to determine the death of both of them.”
The Israeli military said a barrage of 10 rockets was fired from Lebanon into northern Israel, some of which were intercepted, while “others fell in the area.”
It said sirens had sounded in central Israel, including in Tel Aviv and at Ben Gurion airport. Three projectiles that crossed from Lebanon were intercepted, it said.
Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah said it had fired missiles at an Israeli air base south of Tel Aviv.
The rocket fire came as Israel again pounded Hezbollah strongholds in south Beirut and south Lebanon, the military said.
Israeli and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire since Hamas militants from Gaza carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
Fighting has escalated since Israel launched an air and ground offensive against Hezbollah in September.


UN force says Israeli work on so-called Alpha Line with Syria saw ‘severe violations’ of ceasefire

Updated 12 November 2024
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UN force says Israeli work on so-called Alpha Line with Syria saw ‘severe violations’ of ceasefire

  • The Israel military also has begun demolishing villages in Lebanon, where other UN peacekeepers have come under fire
  • “Such severe violations of the (demilitarized zone) have the potential to increase tensions in the area and is being closely monitored by UNDOF,” it added
The Israel military also has begun demolishing villages in Lebanon, where other UN peacekeepers have come under fire
“Such severe violations of the (demilitarized zone) have the potential to increase tensions in the area and is being closely monitored by UNDOF,” it added

DUBAI: United Nations peacekeepers warned Tuesday that the Israeli military has committed “severe violations” of a ceasefire deal with Syria as its military continues a major construction project along the so-called Alpha Line that separates the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from Syria.
The comments from the UN Disengagement Observer Force, which has patrolled the area since 1974, come after an Associated Press report Monday that published satellite imagery showing the extent of the works along the frontier.
The work, which UNDOF said began in July, follows the completion by the Israeli military of new roadways and what appears to be a buffer zone along the Gaza Strip’s frontier with Israel. The Israel military also has begun demolishing villages in Lebanon, where other UN peacekeepers have come under fire.
While such violence hasn’t broken out along the Alpha Line, UNDOF warned Tuesday the work risked further inflaming tensions in the region.
“Such severe violations of the (demilitarized zone) have the potential to increase tensions in the area and is being closely monitored by UNDOF,” it added.
The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Syrian officials have declined to comment on the construction, though UNDOF described Syrian officials as having “strongly protested” the work.
As Israel conducted the construction work, which UNDOF described as “extensive engineering groundwork activities,” it has protected earth-moving equipment with armored vehicles and main battle tanks, the peacekeepers said. Troops and earth-moving equipment have crossed the Alpha Line into the demilitarized zone in Syria, known to UNDOF as the “area of separation.”
“Violations of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement have occurred where engineering works have encroached into the AOS,” the peacekeepers said in a statement, using an acronym for the area. “There have been several violations by (Israel) in the form of their presence in the AoS because of these activities.”
UNDOF has repeatedly protested the work, which it described as violating the ceasefire deal over the months of construction so far.
“Based on the engagement, (Israel) has indicated that the current earthworks are being carried out for defensive purpose to prevent unauthorized crossing and violations by civilians,” the peacekeepers added.
Israel sent a 71-page letter in June to the UN outlining what it described as “Syrian violations of the Alpha Line and armed presence in the area of separation (that) occur daily.” The letter cited numerous Israeli-alleged violations by Syrian civilians crossing the line.
Syria has constantly accused Israel of launching attacks against it from territory it occupies in the Golan Heights. Israel has frequently struck Syria over the years, particularly after the start of the Mideast wars following Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, assault on Israel.
Israel seized control of the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war. The UN Secretary Council voted to create UNDOF to patrol a roughly 400-square-kilometer (155-square-mile) demilitarized zone and maintain the peace there after the 1973 Mideast war. A second demarcation, known as the Bravo Line, marks the limit of where the Syrian military can operate.
UNDOF has around 1,100 troops, mostly from Fiji, India, Kazakhstan, Nepal and Uruguay, who patrol the area.
Israel annexed the Golan Heights in 1981 — a move criticized by a UN resolution declaring Israel’s action as “null and void and without international legal effect.” The territory, some 1,200 square kilometers (460 square miles) in size, is a strategic high ground that overlooks both Israel and Syria.
Around 50,000 Jewish settlers and Arabs who are mostly members of the Druze sect of Shiite Islam live there.
In 2019, President Donald Trump unilaterally announced that the United States would “fully recognize” Israel’s control of the territory, a decision that has been unchanged by the Biden administration. However, it’s the only other country to do so, as the rest of the world views it as occupied Syrian territory.