CHICAGO: Veteran pollster John Zogby, president and founder of the polling company John Zogby Strategies, has said Arab and Muslim voters have more influence today than they have ever had since first settling in this country, and that the issue driving their vote is Gaza.
Zogby noted that the public needs to look at polls not in terms of who is “winning” or leading the race, but rather in which way the voter popularity of a candidate is trending.
Recent polls show that the majority of Arab and Muslim American voters favor third Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party, but that significant support is also shown for Vice President Kamala Harris who is expected to be named as the Democratic Party candidate for president at the Chicago Convention next week.
“I think the sun, moon and stars are aligned. The issues are there. There is broad support on that issue (Gaza), not only in our community but among young people and progressives. And I can’t believe all the calls I am getting about where Arab Americans stand,” Zogby said, noting the community is more together today than in past elections.
Zogby noted that his brother Jim Zogby, the president and founder of the Arab American Institute, was instrumental in strengthening the voice of Arab and Muslim voters in the 1984 and 1988 presidential elections by defining issues on the Democratic Convention platform in alliance with the Rev. Jesse L. Jackson, who ran for president.
That was the first time that the convention included a platform that called for support for the Palestinians and the two-state solution. Conventions since have excluded issues advocated by Arab and Muslim Americans.
“This time around is different; we hold some cards,” John Zogby said, noting that the voices will be heard more at the ballot box on Nov. 5, 2024.
Speaking during the taping of “The Ray Hanania Radio Show,” sponsored by Arab News on the US Radio Network and to be broadcast on Thursday at 5 p.m. EST, Zogby said that Arab and Muslim voters have come together more than they ever have in the past in this election, due to the conflict in Gaza and the need for candidates to address concerns more openly and without fear of pro-Israeli rebukes.
“Even among those fifth-generation kids who are named Scotty and Heather (and) who still have an eighth Arab American in them, the Palestinian issue is in the bloodstream,” Zogby said.
“It is a fundamental injustice; it is a fundamental example of colonialism. I love it when I hear the kids on campuses saying this is colonialism, this is genocide. This is what it is and this is how we see it," he added, noting there are many variables at play.
Despite many domestic issues driving the election, for Arab and Muslim voters “There are still some core issues and Gaza is in fact one of those issues.”
Zogby said polling he did in April, just before President Joe Biden withdrew from the election, showed that the Biden administration’s failure to stop the carnage in Gaza had a tremendous impact on weakening support for Democrats among the Arab and Muslim community.
Zogby pointed out that April saw “almost a destruction of the Democratic brand among Arab Americans and Muslim Americans because of Gaza.”
Arabs and Muslims should recognize that American political candidates will say one thing during an election but will tone it down or change it after being elected, the pollster said, adding that that polling changes frequently as it is driven by issues, and many trends.
“I think what we need to strip away from our minds is that ‘the poll says someone is going to win.’ All a poll does is say that somebody is ahead. Somebody is behind. They are tied. That is a snapshot at the moment,” Zogby said.
Polling puts a spotlight on issues, and may show the impact third party candidates such as Stein and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy might have on the major candidates.
“Yes, they (Kennedy and Stein) can have an impact. Right now, Kennedy is having more of an impact on Trump than he is on Harris. Jill Stein is having a slight impact, as she was on Biden.
“I don’t have any real new numbers that tell the story but she is locked in at about 1 percent and Kennedy is about 8 to 10 percent.
“However, for those who might be inclined to go with Bobby Kennedy and make a statement, his position on Israel and Gaza is as bad — frankly, if not worse — than both Biden and Trump. If that is the dominant issue, he was doing fairly well among younger voters, but this (Gaza) is a wall for me.”
Polling shows Stein is attracting the majority of votes from Arab and Muslim Americans, with Harris trailing behind and with Trump and Kennedy receiving insignificant community voter numbers.
Zogby noted Harris is currently leading the upward trendline (5), mainly because she is new entering the Democratic Convention and is enjoying a short honeymoon driven by her newness as a candidate. However, this popularity can change, he said.
Listen to the entire interview on Thursday at 5 p.m. EST on WNZK AM 690 radio, or online at https://Facebook.com/ArabNews, or on the Arab News podcast site at www.arabnews.com/rayradioshow.
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