Global growth to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024: World Bank

The analysis continued to note that in 2024-25, growth is set to underperform its 2010s average in nearly 60 percent of economies. Shutterstock
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Updated 12 June 2024
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Global growth to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024: World Bank

RIYADH: Global growth is expected to stabilize at 2.6 percent in 2024, holding steady for the first time in three years, according to a new World Bank report.

The analysis warns that safeguarding trade, supporting green and digital transitions, delivering debt relief, as well as improving food security, are all needed to help deliver robust growth.

The report indicates that any stability will come despite geopolitical tensions and high interest rates, the latter being led by Washington – with the US Federal Reserve keeping the benchmark level at a 23-year high to combat inflation.

“The global economy is stabilizing, following several years of negative shocks. Global growth is projected to hold steady at 2.6 percent this year, despite flaring geopolitical tensions and high interest rates, before edging up to 2.7 percent in 2025-26 alongside modest expansions of trade and investment,” the report said. 

“Global inflation is expected to moderate at a slower clip than previously assumed, averaging 3.5 percent this year,” the release added. 

That said, central banks in advanced and developing economies and emerging markets are likely to remain cautious about easing policy. 

Accordingly, the report indicates that the average benchmark policy interest rates over the next few years are expected to remain about double the 2000-19 average.

“Despite an improvement in near-term growth prospects, the outlook remains subdued by historical standards in advanced economies and EMDEs (Emerging Market and Developing Economies) alike,” the report explained. 

This is owed to the fact that global growth over the forecast horizon is projected to be almost half a percentage point below its 2010-19 average pace.

The analysis continued to note that in 2024-25, growth is set to underperform its 2010s average in nearly 60 percent of economies, representing more than 80 percent of the global population and world output.

“Against this backdrop, decisive global and national policy efforts are needed to meet pressing challenges,” the report emphasized. 

Furthermore, the analysis clarifies that high debt and elevated debt-servicing costs will require policymakers to seek ways to boost investment while ensuring fiscal sustainability. 

Additionally, to meet development goals and bolster long-term growth, structural policies will also be needed to raise productivity maturation, enhance the efficiency of public investment, build human capital, and close gender gaps in the labor market.

In terms of regional prospects, growth is estimated to soften in most EMDE regions in 2024. 

In East Asia and the Pacific, the expected slowdown this year mainly reflects moderating advancement in China. 

Similarly, development in Europe, Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean as well as South Asia is also set to decelerate amid a slowdown in their largest economies. 

In contrast, growth in the Middle East and North Africa region is projected to increase this year, although less robust than previously forecasted. 

Zooming into the MENA region

The report sheds light on how activity by oil exporters and importers in the MENA region remained weakened from early to mid-2024. 

Oil activity has been somewhat stagnant in member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, but the analysis explained how growth is anticipated to pick up to 2.8 percent in 2024 and 4.2 percent in 2025. 

This is mainly attributed to a gradual increase in oil production and strengthened activity, which is anticipated to begin in the fourth quarter of 2024. 

“The projection for 2024 is lower than what was expected in January, reflecting the extensions of oil production cuts and the ongoing conflict in the region,” the report stressed. 

Meanwhile, growth in GCC countries is forecast to strengthen to 2.8 percent in 2024 and 4.7 percent in 2025. 

In Saudi Arabia specifically, advancement in 2024 is projected to be supported by non-oil activity, and a gradual resumption of oil activity is expected to rise in 2025. 

Among non-GCC oil exporters, a projected recovery in the oil sector in 2025 will help strengthen growth in both Algeria and Iraq.

Maturation among oil importers is expected to increase to 2.9 percent in 2024 and then rise to 4 percent annually in 2025-26. 

In Egypt, growth is likely to surge, propelled by investment increases partly spurred by a large-scale deal with the UAE. 

In Jordan, maturation is anticipated to remain steady, although tourism-related activities are expected to suffer in the short term. 

Growth in Tunisia is forecast to rebound, but activity in Djibouti and Morocco is projected to soften in 2024.

Potential risks on the horizon

The report also underlines that a major downside risk is the possible escalation of regional armed conflicts. 

A tightening of global financial conditions could lead to capital outflows and exchange rate depreciation for oil importers. 

“Countries with high government debt would see increased debt-service burdens due to higher borrowing costs and the elevated risk of financial instability,” the analysis highlighted. 

On top of this, severe weather events induced by climate change, as well as other types of natural disasters, remain a significant risk in the MENA region. 

“Negative spillovers from weaker-than-expected growth in China would likely affect oil exporters through lower demand and prices for oil. However, stronger-than-expected growth in the US and the resulting improvement in global demand would benefit the region’s exports,” the analysis concluded. 


Saudi Arabia pulls in most of Partners for Growth $450m capital push

Updated 07 February 2026
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Saudi Arabia pulls in most of Partners for Growth $450m capital push

  • Global private credit fund leans into region’s largest market for growth-stage technology financing

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has captured the vast majority of Partners for Growth’s capital deployed in the Gulf Cooperation Council, as the global private credit fund leans into what it sees as the region’s largest market for growth-stage technology financing. 

The San Francisco-based firm has deployed about $450 million in commitments in the GCC, and “the vast majority of that is in Saudi,” said Armineh Baghoomian, managing director at the firm who also serves as head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and co-head of global fintech. 

The company was one of the earliest lenders to Saudi fintech unicorn Tabby, and it’s clear the Kingdom is providing fertile territory for ongoing investments.

“We don’t target a specific country because of some other mandate. It’s just a larger market in the region, so in the types of deals we’re doing, it ends up weighing heavily to Saudi Arabia,” Baghoomian said. 

Partners for Growth, which Baghoomian described as a global private credit fund focused on “growth debt solutions,” lends to emerging tech and innovation companies, particularly those that struggle to access traditional credit. 

“We’re going into our 22nd year,” she said, tracing the strategy back to its roots in a Bay Area investment bank debt practice in the mid-1980s. 

Today, the firm lends globally, she said, deploying capital where it sees fit across markets including Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia, as well as Latin America and the GCC, where it has been active for about six years. 

Shariah structures dominate PFG’s Gulf deals 

In the Gulf, the firm’s structures are often shaped by local expectations. “Most of the deals we’ve done in the region are Shariah-compliant,” Baghoomian said. 

“In terms of dollars we’ve deployed, they’re Shariah-structured,” she added. 

“Usually it’s the entrepreneur who requires that, or requests it, and we’re happy to structure it,” Baghoomian said, adding that the firm also views Shariah structures as “a better security position in certain regions.” 

Growth debt steps in where banks cannot 

Baghoomian framed growth debt as a practical complement to equity for companies that have moved beyond the earliest stage but are not yet “bankable.” 

She said: “The lower-cost bank type facilities don’t exist. There’s that gap.”

Baghoomian added that companies want to grow, “but they don’t want to keep selling big chunks of equity. That implies giving up control and ownership.” 

For businesses with the fundamentals private credit providers look for, she said, debt can extend runway while limiting dilution. 

“As long as they have predictable revenue, clear unit economics, and the right assets that can be financed, this is a nice solution to continue their path,” she added. 

That role becomes more pronounced as equity becomes harder to raise at later stages, Baghoomian believes. 

She pointed to a gap that “might be widening” around “series B-plus” fundraising, as later-stage investors become “more discriminating” about which deals they back. 

Asset-heavy fintechs cannot scale on equity alone 

For asset-heavy technology businesses, Baghoomian argued, debt is not just an option but a necessity. 

She pointed to buy-now-pay-later platform Tabby as an example of a model built on funding working capital at scale. 

“Tabby is an asset-heavy business,” she said. “They’re providing installment plans to consumers, but they still need to pay the merchant on day one. That’s capital-intensive. You need a lot of cash to do that.” 

Equity alone, she added, would be structurally inefficient. “You would not want to just raise equity. The founders, employees, everyone would own nothing and lose a lot of control.” 

We don’t target a specific country because of some other mandate. It’s just a larger market in the region, so in the types of deals we’re doing, it ends up weighing heavily to Saudi Arabia.

Armineh Baghoomian, PFG managing director and head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and co-head of global fintech

Baghoomian said those dynamics are common across other asset-intensive models, including lending platforms and businesses that trade in large inventories such as vehicles or property. “Those are businesses that inherently end up having to raise quite a bit of credit,” she said. Partners for Growth’s relationship with Tabby also reflects how early the firm can deploy capital when the structure is asset-backed. “We started with Tabby with $10 million after their seed round, and then we grew, and we continue to be a lender to them,” Baghoomian said. 

“On the asset-backed side, we can go in quite early,” she said. “Most of the fintechs we work with are very early stage, post-seed, and then we’ll grow with them for as long as possible.” 

As the market for private credit expands in the Gulf, Baghoomian emphasized discipline — both for lenders and borrowers. 

For investors assessing startups seeking debt, she said the key is revenue quality and predictability, not just topline growth. “Revenue is one thing, but how predictable is it? How consistent is it? Is it growing?” she said. “This credit is not permanent capital. You have to pay it back. There’s a servicing element to it.” 

Her advice to founders was more blunt: stress-test the downside before taking leverage. 

“You have to do a stress test and ask: if growth slows by 30 to 40 percent, can I still service the debt? Can I still pay back what I’ve taken?” she said. 

Baghoomian warned against chasing the biggest facility on offer. “Sometimes companies compete on how much a lender is providing them,” she said. “We try to teach founders: take as much as you need, but not as much as you can. You have to pay that back.” 

Partners for Growth positions itself as an alternative to banks not only because many growth-stage companies cannot access bank financing, but because it can tailor structures to each business. 

HIGHLIGHTS

• Partners for Growth positions itself as an alternative to banks not only because many growth-stage companies cannot access bank financing, but because it can tailor structures to each business.

• The firm lends globally deploying capital where it sees fit across markets including Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia, as well as Latin America and the GCC, where it has been active for about six years.

One of Partners for Growth’s differentiators, Baghoomian said, is how bespoke its financing is compared with bank products. 

“These facilities are very bespoke. They’re custom to each company and how they need to use the money,” she said, adding that the fund is not offering founders a rigid menu of standardized options. 

“No two deals of ours look alike,” she said, framing that flexibility as especially important at the growth stage, when business needs can shift quickly. 

That customization, she added, extends beyond signing. Baghoomian said the firm aims to structure facilities so companies can actually deploy capital without being constrained, adding: “We don’t want to handcuff you. We don’t want to constrain you in any way.” 

As a company evolves, she said the financing can evolve too, because what works on day one often won’t fit nine months later. 

“We’ll revise structures,” she said, describing flexibility as core to how private credit can serve fast-moving tech businesses. 

She added that a global lender can also bring operating support and market pattern recognition, while still accounting for local nuance. 

Baghoomian expects demand for private credit in the Gulf to keep rising. “They are going to require credit, for sure,” she said, pointing to the scale of new platforms and projects. 

“I don’t see it shrinking,” she said, adding that Partners for Growth is seeing more demand and is in late-stage discussions with several companies, though she declined to name them. 

PFG to stay selective despite rising competition 

Competition among lenders has increased since the firm began deploying in the region, Baghoomian said, calling that “very healthy for the ecosystem.” 

Most of what the firm does in the region is asset-backed, Baghoomian said, often through first warehouse facilities for businesses financing receivables or other tangible exposures, “almost always Shariah.” 

Keeping Egypt on its watchlist 

Beyond the Gulf, Baghoomian said the firm is monitoring Egypt closely, though macroeconomic volatility has delayed deployments. 

“We looked at Egypt very aggressively a few years ago, and then the macro issues changed,” she said, adding that the firm continues to speak with companies in the country and track conditions. 

Even as private credit becomes more common in the region, Baghoomian underscored that debt is not universally appropriate. 

“Not every company should take a loan or credit,” she said. “You don’t take it just to take it. It should be getting you to the next milestone.”