RIYADH: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has maintained its projection for world oil demand, foreseeing a rise of 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, consistent with the previous month’s forecast.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC also anticipates a growth of 1.85 million bpd in 2025.
OPEC attributes this growth to various markets, particularly China, India, the Middle East, and Latin America. The alliance highlights robust demands for air travel and road mobility, including trucking, as key drivers behind this anticipated increase.
Additionally, OPEC notes increased industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, as well as petrochemical capacity expansions in regions like China and the Middle East, as contributors to oil demand growth.
However, OPEC acknowledges that this forecast is subject to uncertainties, including global economic developments throughout the year. Despite this, the report suggests continued economic growth, with oil demand expected to increase by 2.3 million bpd in the second half of 2024.
The services sector, particularly travel and tourism, is expected to be a primary driver of economic growth in the latter part of the year, further supporting oil demand.
The report maintains a global economic growth forecast of 2.8 percent for 2024 and 2.9 percent for 2025, consistent with the previous month’s projections.
Haitham Al-Ghais, the secretary-general of OPEC, expressed optimism about the sector’s continued growth, citing a rebound in travel.
He emphasized OPEC’s focus on market fundamentals, including economic growth, supply, and demand, reiterating the resilience of oil demand and the accuracy of OPEC’s forecasts.
“It is important to remain focused on the fundamentals. We look at economic growth, We look at supply, we look at demand, and yes, we do still believe demand for oil is good and resilient,” said Al-Ghais.
“Last year, OPEC’s forecast for oil demand was the best. And all those who criticized OPEC’s forecast kept adjusting their number throughout the year.”
