KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank cut its key interest rate by 150 basis points on Monday in a widely expected move, marking its first rate reduction in nearly four years in its effort to boost growth amid a sharp decline in retail inflation.
The decision to cut the key rate to 20.5 percent comes two days ahead of Pakistan’s annual budget and a week after data showed inflation slowed to a 30-month low of 11.8 percent in May.
It also comes ahead of Pakistan’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Pakistan is in talks with the IMF for a loan estimated to be anything between $6 billion to $8 billion to avert a default for an economy that is growing at the slowest pace in the region.
The growth target for the upcoming year is expected to be higher at 3.6 percent than this year’s 2 percent and last year’s economic contraction.
Analysts and the business community have had mixed reactions to the cut, and are looking forward to the upcoming budget for clarity on the central bank’s next moves.
PAKISTAN BUSINESS COUNCIL
“With headline inflation decelerating by 550 bps from April to 11.8 percent in May, and the policy rate significantly positive, businesses generally expected a sharper cut.
“However, as the monetary policy committee points out, upward inflationary risks emanate from the FY 25 budget and future increases in energy tariffs. So the ball is in the government’s court to manage inflation.”
“Businesses should derive comfort from the narrowing current account deficit, a primary surplus on the fiscal account, deceleration in the growth of currency in circulation, declining food inflation, and stable FX reserves... All these factors augur well for further reduction in the policy rate.”
MUSADAQ ZULQARNAIN, DIRECTOR OF THE PAKISTAN TEXTILE COUNCIL
“I expect that, while the policy rate should come down by 300 basis points, out of abundant caution it was reduced by 150-200 basis points.
“It will surely help a bit, though the rates will still be in a higher than workable range. But this will set the direction. We will also have to wait for the budget to see what the overall impact (is).”
M ABDUL ALEEM, CEO AND SECRETARY GENERAL OF PAKISTAN’S OVERSEAS INVESTORS CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY
“At present our real policy rate stands at 10 percent. This leaves room for a higher cut, at least by 2 percent. However, the monetary policy committee decided to cut the rate by 150 bps.
“This decline in the policy rate will provide relief of around 600 billion rupees ($2.16 billion) in debt servicing to the government and also to businesses by lowering the cost of borrowing.
“Business confidence has already improved, as reflected in the latest OICCI Business Confidence Index.
“Post the June 12 budget, we expect a revival of economic activities and the creation of employment opportunities. Moreover, as inflation is declining, we expect more cuts in future.”
TAHIR ABBAS, HEAD OF RESEARCH AT ARIF HABIB LIMITED
“The central bank has indicated that inflationary pressures are easing, supported by a significantly positive real interest rate. We believe that this monetary easing cycle will persist, with an additional 3-4 percent decline expected in 2024.
“The stock market is expected to take the news positively. However, there remains fear and uncertainty over hefty taxation measures in the upcoming federal budget.
“For industries, it would be a welcome step as it would reduce borrowing costs. More importantly, it would be positive for the federal government fiscal account as well, as it is the largest borrower in the system.”
ABID SULERI, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICY INSTITUTE
“This is a prudent measure by the central bank. The central bank is cautious because of the upcoming budget and some measures that may push inflation up once again.
“Once in an IMF program, we may see some changes in the rupee-dollar parity.
“We need to remember that the monetary policy is not just for inflation, but also to encourage domestic savings to prevent dollarization.
“In the next two meetings, if things remain constant, we will see the key rate ease further.”
ALMAS HYDER, SENIOR MEMBER OF THE LAHORE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY
“A rate cut signifies taming of inflation and creating opportunities for investment. This will start a positive cycle of investment planning for the future.”
MUSTAFA PASHA, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT LAKSON INVESTMENTS
“(I) don’t see (the cut) being an issue with the IMF as we are still very far from an accommodative policy stance (12 percent or lower). (I) foresee aggressive rate cuts in the second half of the year (4-5 percent) if we get an IMF program.”
Expert and industry present mixed reviews on Pakistan central bank rate cut
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Expert and industry present mixed reviews on Pakistan central bank rate cut
- Pakistan is in talks with the IMF for a loan estimated to be anything between $6 billion to $8 billion to avert a sovereign default
- The growth target for upcoming year is expected to be higher at 3.6 percent than this year’s 2 percent and last year’s economic contraction
Pakistan alarmed as Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies, calls for immediate ceasefire
- Pakistan envoy urges both sides to resolve ongoing conflict through peaceful means during Security Council briefing
- Russia last Friday fired hypersonic ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warhead at Ukraine, drawing criticism
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s UN Ambassador Iftikhar Ahmad this week expressed alarm as the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies, calling for an immediate ceasefire and demanding both countries resolve their issues peacefully through dialogue.
The development takes place days after Russia last week fired an intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile at Ukraine called Oreshnik. The move drew sharp criticism as the missile is capable of carrying nuclear and conventional warheads. Russia said it fired the Oreshnik in response to what Moscow says was an attempted Ukrainian drone attack on Dec. 29 against one of Putin’s residences in northern Russia. Ukraine denies Moscow’s claims.
February 2026 will mark four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, triggering the worst armed conflict in Europe since World War II. The war has killed hundreds of thousands of people and forced millions to flee their homes.
“We are alarmed by the recent intensification in fighting with escalation in attacks from both sides, further worsening the already dire humanitarian situation,” Ahmad said on Monday during a UN Security Council briefing on the Ukraine conflict.
“Such actions not only perpetuate the conflict, but they also undermine trust, and the ongoing efforts for peace.”
The Pakistani envoy urged both sides to abide by the principles of international law and ensure civilians and civilian infrastructure are protected during the conflict. He said Pakistan’s position on resolving the issue through dialogue has not changed.
“Now, more than ever before, the overwhelming global opinion is on the side of ending this conflict through peaceful means,” Ahmad said. “This can only be achieved through a sustained, meaningful and structured dialogue.”
US President Donald Trump has been pushing both sides to strike a deal to halt the conflict, running shuttle diplomacy between Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s Vladimir Putin in a bid to get an agreement across the line. Plans to broker peace collapsed after an initial 28-point plan, which largely adhered to Moscow’s demands, was criticized by Kyiv and Europe.
Ahmad appreciated the US for attempting to resolve the conflict through peaceful means.
“We hope that all sides would make full use of the ongoing diplomacy, demonstrate genuine political will, and engage constructively to make meaningful strides toward a peaceful and negotiated settlement of the conflict, starting with an immediate ceasefire,” he said.
