Economists skeptical of Pakistan’s projected 3.6 percent growth rate for next fiscal year

A labourer pulls his handcart along a street on a hot summer afternoon in Rawalpindi on May 30, 2024 amid the ongoing heatwave. (AFP)
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Updated 02 June 2024
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Economists skeptical of Pakistan’s projected 3.6 percent growth rate for next fiscal year

  • Government is expected to present the annual budget on June 10, as it hopes the inflation to drop to 12 percent
  • Economists say poverty, unemployment will increase amid tight fiscal and monetary policies, high interest rates

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani economists on Saturday expressed skepticism over the government’s claim it would be able to accelerate economic growth to 3.6 percent in the next fiscal year from 2.4 percent in the outgoing financial year, warning that employment and poverty rates could increase further in the coming months.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s administration is expected to present the annual budget on June 10, at a time when the country is facing an economic crisis with double-digit inflation and struggling to secure funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The government on Friday approved a 3.6 percent growth target for the 2024-25 budget, boosting the development allocation to Rs1.2 trillion ($4.3 billion) from Rs950 billion ($3.4 billion) in the outgoing fiscal year, which has now been slashed to Rs717 billion ($2.6 billion) due to fiscal constraints.

“Looking at the economic indicators including agricultural and large-scale manufacturing growth, it seems the government may hardly be able to achieve around three percent growth rate,” Sajid Amin, economist and deputy executive director at the Sustainable

Development Policy Institute (SDPI) in Islamabad, told Arab News.

“The governments usually budget a high growth target and then revise it down,” he said, referring to the outgoing fiscal year’s growth rate as the government had targeted 3.5 percent but achieved only 2.4 percent.

Amin said that around nine million youth were entering the labor market annually and Pakistan would require at least a five percent growth rate to create job opportunities for them.

“Even if the government achieves the growth target, the unemployment and poverty rate would unfortunately increase,” he said.

According to a recent Planning Commission report, the government expects inflation to moderate to 12 percent in the next fiscal year while admitting that growth prospects “hinge upon political stability, exchange rate, macroeconomic stabilization under IMF’s program and expected fall in global oil and commodity prices.”

Ali Khizar, an economist, said the country was faced with gross financing gaps and development would remain in check with real interest rates to stay positive.

“Pakistan’s current account is expected to stay close to zero until the foreign exchange reserves build,” he told Arab News, adding that commercial financing revenues would remain low and with all this Pakistan would not be able to achieve the targeted growth rate.

“Even 3.6 percent growth rate is not a good number to create job opportunities and bring people out of poverty,” he continued, adding that Pakistan would have to ensure tight fiscal and monetary policies with high interest rates to secure the IMF loan program.

These, he pointed out, would slow down the economy.


Gulf-EU value chain integration signals shift toward long-term economic partnership: GCC secretary general

Updated 03 February 2026
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Gulf-EU value chain integration signals shift toward long-term economic partnership: GCC secretary general

RIYADH: Value chains between the Gulf and Europe are poised to become deeper and more resilient as economic ties shift beyond traditional trade toward long-term industrial and investment integration, according to the secretary general of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Speaking on the sidelines of the World Governments Summit 2026 in Dubai, Jasem Al-Budaiwi said Gulf-European economic relations are shifting from simple commodity trade toward the joint development of sustainable value chains, reflecting a more strategic and lasting partnership.

His remarks were made during a dialogue session titled “The next investment and trade race,” held with Luigi Di Maio, the EU’s special representative for external affairs.

Al-Budaiwi said relations between the GCC and the EU are among the bloc’s most established partnerships, built on decades of institutional collaboration that began with the signing of the 1988 cooperation agreement.

He noted that the deal laid a solid foundation for political and economic dialogue and opened broad avenues for collaboration in trade, investment, and energy, as well as development and education.

The secretary general added that the partnership has undergone a qualitative shift in recent years, particularly following the adoption of the joint action program for the 2022–2027 period and the convening of the Gulf–European summit in Brussels.

Subsequent ministerial meetings, he said, have focused on implementing agreed outcomes, enhancing trade and investment cooperation, improving market access, and supporting supply chains and sustainable development.

According to Al-Budaiwi, merchandise trade between the two sides has reached around $197 billion, positioning the EU as one of the GCC’s most important trading partners.

He also pointed to the continued growth of European foreign direct investment into Gulf countries, which he said reflects the depth of economic interdependence and rising confidence in the Gulf business environment.

Looking ahead, Al-Budaiwi emphasized that the economic transformation across GCC states, driven by ambitious national visions, is creating broad opportunities for expanded cooperation with Europe. 

He highlighted clean energy, green hydrogen, and digital transformation, as well as artificial intelligence, smart infrastructure, and cybersecurity, as priority areas for future partnership.

He added that the success of Gulf-European cooperation should not be measured solely by trade volumes or investment flows, but by its ability to evolve into an integrated model based on trust, risk-sharing, and the joint creation of economic value, contributing to stability and growth in the global economy.

GCC–EU plans to build shared value chains look well-timed as trade policy volatility rises.

In recent weeks, Washington’s renewed push over Greenland has been tied to tariff threats against European countries, prompting the EU to keep a €93 billion ($109.7 billion) retaliation package on standby. 

At the same time, tighter US sanctions on Iran are increasing compliance risks for energy and shipping-related finance. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization and UNCTAD warn that higher tariffs and ongoing uncertainty could weaken trade and investment across both regions in 2026.