Turkiye heads to local elections as Erdogan seeks to avenge defeat
Turkiye heads to local elections as Erdogan seeks to avenge defeat/node/2481861/middle-east
Turkiye heads to local elections as Erdogan seeks to avenge defeat
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) next to AK Party's candidate for metropolitan mayor of Ankara, Turgut Altinok, addresses the supporters during an election campaign rally in Ankara on March 23, 2024, ahead of the municipal elections of March 31. (AFP)
Turkiye heads to local elections as Erdogan seeks to avenge defeat
In watershed 2019 polls, the secular opposition CHP seized back control of the city for the first time since before Erdogan ruled it as mayor in the 1990s
Updated 24 March 2024
AFP
ISTANBUL: Turks will vote next Sunday in local elections as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, buoyed by a strong showing in last year’s general elections, sets his sights on winning back Istanbul.
The secular opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) seized back control of the city — Turkiye’s economic powerhouse — for the first time since before Erdogan ruled it as mayor in the 1990s in watershed 2019 polls.
That vote also saw the opposition win back the capital Ankara and keep power in the crucial Aegean port city of Izmir, shattering Erdogan’s image of political invincibility.
Erdogan has entrusted his former environment minister Murat Kurum to run for mayor of Istanbul in the March 31 polls as he looks to avenge the worst political defeat of his two-decade rule when CHP archrival Ekrem Imamoglu took the town hall.
The powerful president bounced back last year to win a tough presidential election that came in the throes of an economic crisis and a massive earthquake that claimed more than 53,000 lives in Turkiye.
Now, Erdogan has set his sights on winning back Istanbul — the city where he grew up and where he launched his political career as mayor in 1994.
Imamoglu edged out an Erdogan ally in a 2019 election that gained international headlines for being controversially annulled.
He won a re-run vote by a massive margin that turned him into an instant hero for the opposition and a formidable foe for Erdogan.
The 52-year-old is widely seen as the opposition’s best bet at winning back the presidency from Erdogan’s AKP party in 2028.
“Imamoglu is an effective political operator and at this point in time represents one of the very few glimmers of hope for constituents who oppose Erdogan and the AKP,” Anthony Skinner, director of research at geopolitical advisory firm Marlow Global, told AFP.
But last year’s poor general election showing fractured the opposition and prompted the pro-Kurdish DEM Party — the third largest in parliament — to submit its own candidates in the local polls.
This could cost the opposition.
“The underperformance of the political opposition at the May 2023 elections demonstrated its failure to effectively challenge the political status quo, and, by extension the resilience and resourcefulness of Erdogan,” Skinner said.
In 2019, CHP’s Imamoglu received support from a wide range of political parties that included the right-wing IYI, Kurds and Socialists who oppose Erdogan.
But the lack of unity this time will likely cost Imamoglu several percentage points.
Erdogan is leading the AKP campaign and his rallies are broadcast daily on television, whereas the opposition candidates are given little airtime.
They use social media instead.
The Erdogan government’s failure to get soaring inflation of 67 percent under control could hurt his Kurum’s chances.
Erdogan is due to hold a major rally in Istanbul on Sunday, hoping to unite supporters behind Kurum.
Berk Esen, an associate professor at Istanbul’s Sabanci University, portrayed Istanbul as “the biggest prize in Turkish politics” and said winning back the city was extremely important for Erdogan, 70, who said the March local elections would be his last.
“Obviously, this is his city,” Esen said. “But it goes beyond that.”
“Istanbul is a city with enormous municipal resources that provides services to 16 million citizens,” he said.
Polls suggest it will be a close-run affair.
But Erman Bakirci from Konda polling company insisted that “Imamoglu is ahead” in Istanbul and suggested there could be “a gap between the polls and the actual election results.”
Osman Nuri Kabaktepe, AKP’s Istanbul head, told AFP that Istanbul was crucial because it is “our gateway to the world,” comparing it to the importance of New York and Berlin.
In the capital Ankara, CHP mayor Mansur Yavas appears to be ahead but “a very tight race” could play out, political communications expert Eren Aksoyoglu said, adding that AKP’s nationalist allies are “putting all their weight into the battle.”
Observers say the DEM Party — accused by authorities of links with outlawed Kurdish militants — will sweep large towns in the Kurdish majority southeast including Diyarbakir.
But Aksoyoglu said that some voters may be disillusioned with the political system after 52 mayors in the southeast elected in 2019 on the HDP (now DEM) ticket were replaced by state-appointed administrators.
rba-bg-fo/bc
Great expectations: Yemenis look forward to outcomes of Riyadh dialogue
Southern factions look to Saudi-hosted talks to defuse tensions after December’s violent escalation
Analysts say Riyadh dialogue could help reset the southern cause — but only if militias are excluded
Updated 07 January 2026
Mohammed Al-Sulami
RIYADH: Last December marked a troubled end to the year in Yemen, particularly in its southern and eastern governorates. While much of the world marked the season with hopes for peace and stability, developments on the ground took a sharply different turn.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC), led by Aidarous Al-Zubaidi, moved to seize control of state institutions and military camps, defying expectations in Hadramout and Al-Mahra and mounting a direct challenge to the internationally recognized government.
These actions, carried out through armed force and supported by external actors, led to casualties and an escalation of tensions in both governorates.
In response, Yemen’s political leadership appealed to the Saudi-led coalition to contain the situation, called for the withdrawal of Emirati forces, and initiated operations to reassert control over military headquarters in Hadramout and Al-Mahra.
Subsequently, Rashad Mohammed Al-Alimi, chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, asked Saudi Arabia to host a conference in Riyadh, bringing together all southern factions to discuss solutions — a request accepted by the Saudi leadership.
Supporters of the UAE-backed separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) wave flags of the STC, during a rally in Aden, Yemen, January 1, 2026. (Reuters)
The initiative comes amid the Kingdom’s affirmation of the legitimacy of the southern cause, coupled with its clear rejection of any solution imposed by force.
Arab News surveyed the views of several Yemeni politicians and analysts on their expectations for the conference, convened at a critical and highly sensitive juncture, and on the key issues anticipated to dominate the dialogue.
Among them was Salah Batis, a member of the Yemeni Shura Council, a member of the Preparatory Committee for the Unified Council of the Eastern Governorates, and a prominent figure in Hadramout.
“We extend our sincere gratitude to our brothers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia — both leadership and people — for their steadfast support, assistance, and courageous stand alongside the people of Hadramout and the eastern governorates in particular, and Yemen as a whole,” Batis told Arab News.
“Without this support, and without the role of the Saudi Air Force, this victory would not have been achieved, security would not have been restored, and this militia would not have been removed from these sensitive areas, especially Hadramout and the eastern governorates.
President Dr. Rashad Mohammed Al-Alimi, Chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, received on Tuesday at his residence in Riyadh the Senior Adviser to the US President for Arab and African Affairs, Massad Boulos, in the presence of the US Ambassador to Yemen Steven H. Fagin. (Social media)
“We also express our appreciation to the political leadership, represented by the chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, Dr. Rashad Al-Alimi, and to the governor of Hadramout and commander of the Homeland Shield Forces, Salem Al-Khanbashi.
“Our gratitude further extends to the heroes of the Homeland Shield Forces, the armed forces, and the security forces who participated in the operation to take control of the camps. It was a swift and decisive operation, carried out at minimal cost, praise be to God.”
However, Batis said he opposes the inclusion of the STC in the upcoming Riyadh conference, citing its involvement in the killing and terrorizing of civilians in Hadramout and Al-Mahra.
He described the call for dialogue as “a positive step toward preserving the southern cause, which the STC had sought to hijack and undermine, nearly causing severe damage had it not been for swift and decisive intervention.”
Abdullah Ali Fadhel Al-Saadi (second from right at table), Permanent Representative of Yemen to the United Nations, speaks at the Security Council meeting on the situation in the Middle East. (Photo: UN)
Batis said the southern cause must represent all southerners without exception, and that no single party should monopolize it or claim exclusive representation. He said the STC had already harmed the cause by using armed violence to advance its agenda, resulting in killings.
For this reason, he said, the people of Hadramout — where many of these violations occurred — have demanded, and continue to demand, accountability for those responsible and their exclusion from the dialogue.
He accused the STC of mobilizing armed forces, invading governorates, killing tribesmen, attacking villages and civilians, storming and looting state camps, and destroying public institutions, including airports, ports, oil facilities, and government offices in Seiyun, Mukalla, and other locations.
Batis said the STC and its leadership bear full responsibility, arguing they had led and directed the armed groups toward Hadramout under the banner of southern forces.
This photo taken on January 3, 2026 shows Saudi-backed forces that took control of the Second Military Region Command on the outskirts of Mukalla, the capital of Hadramawt, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive to seize the resource-rich province. (AFP)
He questioned how the people of Hadramout and the eastern governorates could accept belonging to such a region after what had occurred, noting that these forces operated under a declared leadership and a self-proclaimed supreme commander.
Batis said local communities viewed them as invading forces that killed civilians, shed blood, attacked state institutions, and seized military camps.
He added that, were it not for the decisive intervention of allied forces and local authorities — leading to the return of the camps, the repair of the damage, and the withdrawal of these militias to their original positions — the consequences would have been far more severe.
“I believe this dialogue and conference must have a clear and firm framework: no group that possesses weapons, militias, or armed forces should take part,” Batis said.
People ride motorbikes on a street in Sanaa, Yemen February 5, 2021. (Reuters)
“Arms must be exclusively in the hands of the state, under the authority of the ministries of defense and interior, and sovereignty must rest solely with the state — not with parties, factions, or individuals.”
Batis warned against repeating what he described as the mistake of 2013, when the Houthi group was allowed to participate in the National Dialogue Conference while still armed and expanding its territorial control.
He recalled that by January 2014 the Houthis had seized Amran Governorate and laid siege to Sanaa, halting the drafting of the federal constitution and forcing meetings to be held at the Presidential Palace.
Batis noted that he was serving at the time as vice president of the National Authority tasked with monitoring the implementation of the dialogue’s outcomes, before the Houthis later stormed the capital and plunged the country into a crisis that continues to this day.
Fighters recruited into the Houthis as part of a mobilization campaign they have initiated recently, ride atop an armored personnel carrier as they parade to show solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen August 24, 2024. (Reuters)
For his part, political analyst and activist Youssef Ismail Abdo said that any fair and equitable outcomes from the conference would help stabilize the south — particularly Hadramawt and the eastern governorates — fostering security, development, and stability, with positive implications for all of Yemen and the wider region.
Also speaking to Arab News, Dr. Nasser bin Habtour, secretary-general of the Shabwa National Council, said that “the south is home to multiple political projects, including secession and a federal state.
“The events of December demonstrated that not all southerners support secession, leaving the STC isolated in its unilateral move. In my opinion, all political options should be placed on the dialogue table so that southerners can discuss them and reach a unified vision.”
He argued that “secession is neither feasible nor appropriate at the present stage, given Yemen’s dire circumstances, with the Houthi militia controlling Sanaa and state institutions and posing a serious threat to Yemen and the wider region.”
Vehicles drive on a street, as Saudi and Omani delegations hold talks with Houthis, in Sanaa, Yemen April 10, 2023. (Reuters)
He stressed that “restoring the Yemeni state must come first, after which all political projects can be presented to the people, who should then decide the future form of the state.”
He added: “The meeting, to be held in Riyadh, came at the request of southern political and social figures and groups who convened after recognizing both their responsibility and the danger into which the STC had placed the southern cause.
“They contacted the chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, urging him to ask the Kingdom to host a southern dialogue conference.” He noted that “this initiative was consistent with Saudi Arabia’s longstanding role in supporting Yemen.”
“The conference must focus on repairing the damage inflicted on the southern cause by the STC’s unilateral decisions and attempts to monopolize it, as well as restoring the issue to its proper course through a consensual vision shared by the people of the south.”
A drone view shows people attending a rally organized by Yemen's main separatist group, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), in Aden, Yemen December 21, 2025. (Reuters)
Regarding the expected outcomes of the comprehensive southern national dialogue, Habtour said: “The first priority is reaching consensus on a unified southern vision that reflects the aspirations of the people of the south.”
He added: “The southern issue must be situated within the broader national struggle to restore the state from the Houthi militia, as well as integrated into the negotiation process aimed at restoring security and stability in Yemen.”
He further stressed “the importance of defining the role of southerners in the upcoming phase, particularly within the framework of a future federal state and their contribution to nation-building and development.”
