SCENARIOS: What’s next in Pakistan election deadlock?

People reads morning newspapers with the front page election headlines along a roadside stall a day after Pakistan's national general election in Lahore on February 9, 2024. (AFP/File)
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Updated 11 February 2024
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SCENARIOS: What’s next in Pakistan election deadlock?

  • Polls marred by violence, political turmoil concluded with no party winning a majority 
  • Ex-PM Sharif could strike a deal with Pakistan Peoples Party to form majority in parliament

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s national election ended with no party winning a majority in parliament, in polls marred by militant violence, political turmoil and questions of transparency.

Former prime ministers and bitter rivals Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan both declared victory, adding to the uncertainty as the country faces numerous challenges that need to be addressed quickly, including negotiating a new International Monetary Fund program to keep a struggling $350 billion economy afloat.

Next, a prime ministerial candidate has to show a simple majority of 169 seats in the National Assembly when the house is called in coming days.

The Assembly consists of 336 seats of which 266 are decided through direct voting on polling day. There are also 70 reserved seats — 60 for women and 10 for non-Muslims — allotted according to the strength of each party in the house to determine the final position of parties in the Assembly.

Here are four scenarios on what could happen next:

SHARIF STRIKES DEAL TO HEAD A COALITION GOVERNMENT

Sharif’s party, which won 75 seats, strikes a deal with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of assassinated former premier Benazir Bhutto, which won 53 seats, to pull together a majority in parliament.

The two, along with other smaller parties, form a coalition government in which Sharif or his brother is prime minister and important positions are given to other parties.

The two parties were in government together for 16 months till August, with Bhutto-Zardari as foreign minister and Sharif’s brother Shehbaz as prime minister.

KHAN’S INDEPENDENTS SWEEP TO POWER

Khan’s independent candidates, who won 93 seats, join a smaller party in parliament in order to form a single bloc to fulfill a requirement for them to be allocated reserved seats. 

That would push them closer to a majority and allow them to put up a candidate for prime minister.

They can also strike a deal with other parties to support a consensus candidate, which also means Khan’s supporters are in power, and can push to have their jailed leader released under an agreement. Khan himself is not eligible to become prime minister.

The party will have to push hard for allies to align with Khan’s politics.

BHUTTO ZARDARI PUSHES TO HEAD COALITION GOVERNMENT

While Sharif and Khan’s candidates won the most seats, no party can form government without the PPP. With both looking to keep the other out of power, the PPP strikes a deal to make the young Bhutto Zardari prime minister.

He pushed the idea before the polls, saying he would bring a fresh approach to pull Pakistan out of multiple crises which other aged leaders have been unable to do.

NO DEAL, ARMY STEPS IN

Uncertainty drags on with no one able to form government. Pakistan’s army, the most powerful and organized force in the country, steps in to restore order and takes power as it has done thrice before in the country’s 76-year history — the last time in 1999 to overthrow Sharif’s government.

The army has already called on political parties to show “maturity and unity.”


Pakistan joins regional talks on Afghanistan in Iran as Kabul stays away

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Pakistan joins regional talks on Afghanistan in Iran as Kabul stays away

  • China, Pakistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan all joined talks organized by Iran, as did Russia
  • Afghanistan was invited but decided not to attend, Taliban-led government was tight-lipped on the reasons

TEHRAN, Iran: Afghanistan’s neighbors met in Iran and agreed to deepen regional coordination to address political, economic and security challenges, as well as calling for sanctions on Afghanistan to be lifted. 

The only absent party? Afghanistan itself.

China, Pakistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan all joined the talks organized by Iran, as did Russia, according to a statement released after the meeting on Sunday.

Afghanistan was invited but decided not to attend. Its Taliban-led government was tight-lipped on the reasons, with the foreign ministry saying only that it would not participate because Afghanistan “currently maintains active engagement with regional countries through existing regional organizations and formats, and has made good progress in this regard.”

The statement from the talks in Iran stressed the importance of maintaining economic and trade ties with Afghanistan to improve living conditions and called for the country’s integration into regional political and economic processes.

The Taliban were isolated after they retook power in Afghanistan in August 2021, but in the past year, they have developed diplomatic ties. They now raise several billion dollars every year in tax revenues to keep the lights on.

However, Afghanistan is still struggling economically. Millions rely on aid for survival, and the struggling economy has been further impacted by the international community not recognizing the Taliban government’s seizure of power in the wake of the chaotic withdrawal of US-led troops in 2021. Natural disasters and the flow of Afghans fleeing Pakistan under pressure to return home have underlined Afghanistan’s reliance on foreign aid to meet essential needs.

The countries at the talks also voiced security concerns and pledged cooperation in combating terrorism, drug trafficking and human smuggling, while opposing any foreign military presence in Afghanistan. They underscored the responsibility of the international community to lift sanctions and release Afghanistan’s frozen assets, and urged international organizations to support the dignified return of Afghan refugees from neighboring countries.

The participants backed efforts to reduce tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which have been particularly strained, with border clashes between the two sides killing dozens of civilians, soldiers and suspected militants and wounding hundreds more.

The violence followed explosions in Kabul on Oct. 9 that Afghan authorities blamed on Pakistan. A Qatar-mediated ceasefire has largely held since October, although there have been limited border clashes. The two sides failed to reach an overall agreement in November despite three rounds of peace talks.

Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s former special representative for Afghanistan, said the Taliban government’s decision to skip the meeting reflected a “lack of political maturity.” 

Writing on X, Durrani said the move reinforced concerns that the Taliban were unwilling to negotiate, instead adopting an “I don’t accept” stance that he said would do little to resolve serious regional problems.

Mohammad Sadiq, the current Pakistani special representative for Afghanistan who attended the talks, wrote on X that the Afghan people had already suffered enough and deserved better.

Only an Afghanistan that does not harbor militants would inspire confidence among neighboring and regional countries to engage meaningfully with Kabul and help unlock the country’s economic and connectivity potential, he wrote.

Participants agreed to hold the next meeting of foreign ministers of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries as soon as possible in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, and welcomed Pakistan’s offer to host the next round of special envoys’ talks in Islamabad in March.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, on Sunday said that the meeting had not been held for about two years and marked the first such gathering attended by special envoys on Afghanistan from neighboring countries as well as Russia. Russia and Uzbekistan sent the special envoys of their presidents, while Pakistan was represented by a delegate from the prime minister’s office.

Landlocked Afghanistan is sandwiched between the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia, making it strategically located for energy-rich and energy-hungry nations.