Analysts say Ukraine’s forces are pivoting to defense after Russia held off their counteroffensive

Ukrainian soldiers practice on a tank during military training at a location in Ukraine on Dec. 6, 2023. (AP/File)
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Updated 20 December 2023
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Analysts say Ukraine’s forces are pivoting to defense after Russia held off their counteroffensive

  • The Kremlin’s deep defenses held firm against Ukraine’s monthslong assault, using Western-supplied weapons but without essential air cover
  • “Russia continues local offensive options in several sectors, but individual attacks are rarely above platoon size,” the UK analysis said

KYIV: Ukraine’s armed forces are taking up a more defensive posture, a military analysis said Wednesday, after their summer counteroffensive failed to achieve a major breakthrough against Russia’s army and as winter weather sets in after almost 22 months of the war.
“In recent weeks, Ukraine has mobilized a concerted effort to improve field fortifications as its forces pivot to a more defensive posture along much of the front line,” the UK Ministry of Defense said in an assessment.
The Kremlin’s deep defenses held firm against Ukraine’s monthslong assault, using Western-supplied weapons but without essential air cover, along the around 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line.
Most fighting in recent weeks has focused on artillery, missile and drone strikes as mud and snow hinder troop movements.
“Russia continues local offensive options in several sectors, but individual attacks are rarely above platoon size,” the UK analysis said. “A major Russian breakthrough is unlikely and overall, the front is characterized by stasis.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is hopeful that Kyiv’s Western allies will grow weary of financing the costly Ukrainian war effort, allowing the Kremlin’s forces to make a new offensive push next year against a weaker foe. He has put the Russian economy on a war footing to prepare for that.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that he’s certain the United States will make good on its promise to provide billions of dollars in further aid for Kyiv to continue its fight. The US Congress has broken for vacation without a deal to send around $61 billion to Ukraine.
Zelensky also noted that next year Ukraine plans to produce 1 million drones, which have become a key battlefield weapon. The relatively cheap drones can be used to destroy expensive military hardware.
Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries, said the million new drones will be so-called first-person view, or FPV, drones, which have a real time video function.
In addition, he said in a Telegram post, Ukraine can manufacture next year more than 10,000 mid-range strike drones that can travel hundreds of kilometers (miles) as well as more than 1,000 drones with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers (600 miles). They will allow Ukraine to hit targets well behind the front line and in Russia.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 18 of 19 Russian Shahed-type drones overnight, the Ukraine air force claimed Wednesday.
Also, Russia fired two S-300 ballistic missiles at Kharkiv in the northeast of Ukraine, it said. No casualties were reported.


Russia puts death toll from Ukrainian strike on occupied village at 27. Kyiv rejects accusation

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Russia puts death toll from Ukrainian strike on occupied village at 27. Kyiv rejects accusation

Russian authorities said Friday that the death toll from a Ukrainian drone strike they said struck a café in a Russian-occupied village in Ukraine’s Kherson region rose to 27 people. Kyiv denied attacking civilian targets.
Svetlana Petrenko, spokeswoman of Russia’s main criminal investigation agency, the Investigative Committee, said in a statement that a Ukrainian drone strike on a café and hotel in the village of Khorly, where at least 100 civilians were celebrating New Year’s Eve overnight into Thursday, killed 27 people, including two minors. A total of 31, including five minors, were hospitalized with injuries.
A criminal probe on the charges of carrying out an act of terrorism has been opened, Petrenko said.
Kyiv denied attacking civilians. Spokesman of Ukraine’s General Staff, Dmytro Lykhovii, told Ukraine’s public broadcaster Suspilne on Thursday that Ukrainian forces “adhere to the norms of international humanitarian law” and “carry out strikes exclusively against Russian military targets, facilities of the Russian fuel and energy sector, and other lawful targets.”
Lykhovii said that General Staff has published an explicit list of targets that the Ukrainian army struck on the night of New Year’s Eve. The list did not include strikes on occupied parts of the Kherson region.
Lykhovii noted that Russia has repeatedly used disinformation and false statements to disrupt the ongoing peace negotiations.
The Associated Press could not independently verify claims made about the attack.
Russia’s accusations against Ukraine come amid a US-led diplomatic push to end the nearly four-year war in Ukraine. Earlier this week, Moscow alleged that Kyiv launched a long-range drone attack against a residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in northwestern Russia overnight from Sunday to Monday.
Kyiv has called the allegations of an attack on Putin’s residence a ruse to derail ongoing peace negotiations, which have ramped up in recent weeks on both sides of the Atlantic.
In his New Year’s address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that a peace deal was “90 percent ready” but warned that the remaining 10 percent, believed to include key sticking points such as territory, would “determine the fate of peace, the fate of Ukraine and Europe, how people will live.”
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said Wednesday that he, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner had a “productive call” with the national security advisers of Britain, France, Germany and Ukraine “to discuss advancing the next steps in the European peace process.”
Elsewhere in Ukraine, Russia conducted what local authorities called “one of the most massive” drone attacks at Zaporizhzhia overnight.
At least nine Russian drones struck the city, damaging dozens of residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure, head of the regional administration, Ivan Fedorov, wrote on Telegram on Friday. There were no casualties, the official said.
Overall, Russia fired 116 long-range drones at Ukraine last night, according to Ukraine’s Air Force, which said that 86 drones were intercepted, while 27 more have reached their targets.
The Russian Defense Ministry reported Friday that its air defenses intercepted 64 Ukrainian drones overnight over multiple Russian regions.
Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of Russia’s Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine, on Friday also accused Ukrainian forces of carrying out a missile strike on the city of Belgorod. Two women were hospitalized with injuries, Gladkov said. The strike shattered windows in multiple residential buildings and damaged an unspecified “commercial” facility and a number of cars, according to the official.