BYBLOS: Bartender Richard Alam has poured hardly any drinks at his pub in Lebanon’s seaside city of Byblos, where once-busy streets have emptied of customers scared by border tensions during the Israel-Hamas war.
“I opened this whiskey bottle two weeks ago and it still isn’t empty,” said Alam, 19, standing behind his empty bar in the coastal city, home to a World Heritage site north of Beirut.
“Before, we would go through a bottle every day or every other day,” he told AFP.
Four years into an economic meltdown, Lebanon’s restaurants, cafes, hotels and shops face yet another challenge: keeping afloat during the Israel-Hamas war and related hostilities on the Lebanon-Israel border.
Gaza-based Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on October 7, triggering retaliatory Israeli bombing and a ground offensive in Gaza. Since then, Lebanon’s southern border has seen deadly escalating skirmishes, mainly between Israel and Hamas ally Hezbollah.
The fighting has so far been limited to the south, but some Western and Arab countries have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon, fearing a broader conflict.
Byblos, on Lebanon’s northern coast, “relies on tourists,” Alam said, wearing a bow tie and a suit.
“Our work has gone down from at least 40 to 50 tables a day to... seven at most.”
Nearby, customers are also scarce at Mona Mujahed’s souvenir shop, usually bustling with tourists and locals alike.
But there has been “no work, no money,” Mujahed, 60, said, sipping coffee in front of her shop where souvenirs sit untouched on the shelves.
Many domestic visitors fearful of war have also cut back on expenses, hitting restaurants, cafes, bars and shops hard.
Since 2019 Lebanese have suffered from a financial crisis branded by the World Bank as one of the planet’s worst since the 1850s. It pushed most of the population into poverty, and forced half of all restaurants, cafes, pubs and nightclubs to close down, said Tony Ramy, who heads an industry syndicate.
Ramy said the sector was just recently beginning to recover, after expatriate visitors flocked back to Lebanon over the summer following the coronavirus pandemic, the economic collapse and a catastrophic explosion at Beirut’s port in 2020.
“We had just turned the page on four difficult years with renewed momentum, but unfortunately the war ruined everything,” said Ramy, of the restaurant, cafe, nightclub and pastry shop owners’ syndicate.
“Since October 7 we have seen a dramatic decrease in clientele... (dropping) by up to 80 percent on weekdays and 30 to 50 percent on the weekend,” he said.
“No one knows if the situation in the south will deteriorate and no one can plan for anything,” he said, warning of the potential for “huge losses.”
Cross-border skirmishes have killed at least 88 people in Lebanon, mostly Hezbollah combatants but also 10 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
In northern Israel, nine people including six soldiers have been killed, according to official figures.
Lebanon’s national carrier Middle East Airlines (MEA) has slashed flights, and passenger numbers from the region to Beirut have dropped by 54 percent compared to last year, said the airline’s spokesperson Rima Makkawi
MEA passengers from Europe have also dropped by 30 percent compared to the same period last year, she added.
In Beirut’s once-bustling and vibrant Hamra area, the four-star Hotel Cavalier has seen hundreds of cancelations.
“From the first week (of hostilities), cancelations soared dramatically,” manager Ayman Nasser El Dine, 41, said in the deserted lobby.
“We had zero new reservations... This would be catastrophic if it lasts,” he said.
More than half of the hotel’s 65 rooms were pre-booked for November, but now staff barely welcome a dozen guests per day, he said.
The Cavalier was also overbooked for December and hotels had been looking forward to the Christmas holiday rush, he added.
But that was before the war.
Pierre Ashkar, who heads the hotel owners’ syndicate, said room occupancy had plummeted from about 45 percent to between zero and seven percent.
“Reservations have been canceled for the next two or three months” as countries advised their citizens against traveling to Lebanon, he said.
Even if the Hamas-Israel war ends tomorrow, Ashkar said “we need another month or two until countries change their travel advice so we can return to business as usual.”
But he expressed optimism that hotels in Lebanon, which saw civil war from 1975-1990, a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, and the 2020 port explosion, would rebound once calm returned.
“We are a strong-willed people, born and bred during times of war,” Ashkar said. “If we didn’t have a long experience in crisis management, the sector would have long gone bankrupt.”
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Spectre of war paralyzes Lebanon’s hospitality sector
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https://arab.news/npuqw
Spectre of war paralyzes Lebanon’s hospitality sector
- The fighting has so far been limited to the south, but some Western and Arab countries have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon, fearing a broader conflict
- Many domestic visitors fearful of war have also cut back on expenses, hitting restaurants, cafes, bars and shops hard
Iraq’s political future in limbo as factions vie for power
BAGHDAD: Political factions in Iraq have been maneuvering since the parliamentary election more than a month ago to form alliances that will shape the next government.
The November election didn’t produce a bloc with a decisive majority, opening the door to a prolonged period of negotiations.
The government that eventually emerges will be inheriting a security situation that has stabilized in recent years, but it will also face a fragmented parliament, growing political influence by armed factions, a fragile economy, and often conflicting international and regional pressures, including the future of Iran-backed armed groups.
Uncertain prospects
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s party took the largest number of seats in the election. Al-Sudani positioned himself in his first term as a pragmatist focused on improving public services and managed to keep Iraq on the sidelines of regional conflicts.
While his party is nominally part of the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Iran-backed Shiite parties that became the largest parliamentary bloc, observers say it’s unlikely that the Coordination Framework will support Al-Sudani’s reelection bid.
“The choice for prime minister has to be someone the Framework believes they can control and doesn’t have his own political ambitions,” said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst and fellow at The Century Foundation think tank.
Al-Sudani came to power in 2022 with the backing of the Framework, but Jiyad said that he believes now the coalition “will not give Al-Sudani a second term as he has become a powerful competitor.”
The only Iraqi prime minister to serve a second term since 2003 was Nouri Al-Maliki, first elected in 2006. His bid for a third term failed after being criticized for monopolizing power and alienating Sunnis and Kurds.
Jiyad said that the Coordination Framework drew a lesson from Al-Maliki “that an ambitious prime minister will seek to consolidate power at the expense of others.”
He said that the figure selected as Iraq’s prime minister must generally be seen as acceptable to Iran and the United States — two countries with huge influence over Iraq — and to Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani.
Al-Sudani in a bind
In the election, Shiite alliances and lists — dominated by the Coordination Framework parties — secured 187 seats, Sunni groups 77 seats, Kurdish groups 56 seats, in addition to nine seats reserved for members of minority groups.
The Reconstruction and Development Coalition, led by Al-Sudani, dominated in Baghdad, and in several other provinces, winning 46 seats.
Al-Sudani’s results, while strong, don’t allow him to form a government without the support of a coalition, forcing him to align the Coordination Framework to preserve his political prospects.
Some saw this dynamic at play earlier this month when Al-Sudani’s government retracted a terror designation that Iraq had imposed on the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group and Yemen’s Houthi rebels — Iran-aligned groups that are allied with Iraqi armed factions — just weeks after imposing the measure, saying it was a mistake.
The Coalition Framework saw its hand strengthened by the absence from the election of the powerful Sadrist movement led by Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, which has been boycotting the political system since being unable to form a government after winning the most seats in the 2021 election.
Hamed Al-Sayed, a political activist and official with the National Line Movement, an independent party that boycotted the election, said that Sadr’s absence had a “central impact.”
“It reduced participation in areas that were traditionally within his sphere of influence, such as Baghdad and the southern governorates, leaving an electoral vacuum that was exploited by rival militia groups,” he said, referring to several parties within the Coordination Framework that also have armed wings.
Groups with affiliated armed wings won more than 100 parliamentary seats, the largest showing since 2003.
Other political actors
Sunni forces, meanwhile, sought to reorganize under a new coalition called the National Political Council, aiming to regain influence lost since the 2018 and 2021 elections.
The Kurdish political scene remained dominated by the traditional split between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan parties, with ongoing negotiations between the two over the presidency.
By convention, Iraq’s president is always a Kurd, while the more powerful prime minister is Shiite and the parliamentary speaker Sunni.
Parliament is required to elect a speaker within 15 days of the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of the election result, which occurred on Dec. 14.
The parliament should elect a president within 30 days of its first session, and the prime minister should be appointed within 15 days of the president’s election, with 30 days allotted to form the new government.
Washington steps in
The incoming government will face major economic and political challenges.
They include a high level of public debt — more than 90 trillion Iraqi dinars ($69 billion) — and a state budget that remains reliant on oil for about 90 percent of revenues, despite attempts to diversify, as well as entrenched corruption.
But perhaps the most delicate question will be the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of militias that formed to fight the Daesh group as it rampaged across Iraq more than a decade ago.
It was formally placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016 but in practice still operates with significant autonomy. After the Hamas-led attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 sparked the devastating war in Gaza, some armed groups within the PMF launched attacks on US bases in the region in retaliation for Washington’s backing of Israel.
The US has been pushing for Iraq to disarm Iran-backed groups — a difficult proposition, given the political power that many of them hold and Iran’s likely opposition to such a step.
Two senior Iraqi political officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to comment publicly, said that the United States had warned against selecting any candidate for prime minister who controls an armed faction and also cautioned against letting figures associated with militias control key ministries or hold significant security posts.
“The biggest issue will be how to deal with the pro-Iran parties with armed wings, particularly those... which have been designated by the United States as terrorist entities,” Jiyad said.
The November election didn’t produce a bloc with a decisive majority, opening the door to a prolonged period of negotiations.
The government that eventually emerges will be inheriting a security situation that has stabilized in recent years, but it will also face a fragmented parliament, growing political influence by armed factions, a fragile economy, and often conflicting international and regional pressures, including the future of Iran-backed armed groups.
Uncertain prospects
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s party took the largest number of seats in the election. Al-Sudani positioned himself in his first term as a pragmatist focused on improving public services and managed to keep Iraq on the sidelines of regional conflicts.
While his party is nominally part of the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Iran-backed Shiite parties that became the largest parliamentary bloc, observers say it’s unlikely that the Coordination Framework will support Al-Sudani’s reelection bid.
“The choice for prime minister has to be someone the Framework believes they can control and doesn’t have his own political ambitions,” said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst and fellow at The Century Foundation think tank.
Al-Sudani came to power in 2022 with the backing of the Framework, but Jiyad said that he believes now the coalition “will not give Al-Sudani a second term as he has become a powerful competitor.”
The only Iraqi prime minister to serve a second term since 2003 was Nouri Al-Maliki, first elected in 2006. His bid for a third term failed after being criticized for monopolizing power and alienating Sunnis and Kurds.
Jiyad said that the Coordination Framework drew a lesson from Al-Maliki “that an ambitious prime minister will seek to consolidate power at the expense of others.”
He said that the figure selected as Iraq’s prime minister must generally be seen as acceptable to Iran and the United States — two countries with huge influence over Iraq — and to Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani.
Al-Sudani in a bind
In the election, Shiite alliances and lists — dominated by the Coordination Framework parties — secured 187 seats, Sunni groups 77 seats, Kurdish groups 56 seats, in addition to nine seats reserved for members of minority groups.
The Reconstruction and Development Coalition, led by Al-Sudani, dominated in Baghdad, and in several other provinces, winning 46 seats.
Al-Sudani’s results, while strong, don’t allow him to form a government without the support of a coalition, forcing him to align the Coordination Framework to preserve his political prospects.
Some saw this dynamic at play earlier this month when Al-Sudani’s government retracted a terror designation that Iraq had imposed on the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group and Yemen’s Houthi rebels — Iran-aligned groups that are allied with Iraqi armed factions — just weeks after imposing the measure, saying it was a mistake.
The Coalition Framework saw its hand strengthened by the absence from the election of the powerful Sadrist movement led by Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, which has been boycotting the political system since being unable to form a government after winning the most seats in the 2021 election.
Hamed Al-Sayed, a political activist and official with the National Line Movement, an independent party that boycotted the election, said that Sadr’s absence had a “central impact.”
“It reduced participation in areas that were traditionally within his sphere of influence, such as Baghdad and the southern governorates, leaving an electoral vacuum that was exploited by rival militia groups,” he said, referring to several parties within the Coordination Framework that also have armed wings.
Groups with affiliated armed wings won more than 100 parliamentary seats, the largest showing since 2003.
Other political actors
Sunni forces, meanwhile, sought to reorganize under a new coalition called the National Political Council, aiming to regain influence lost since the 2018 and 2021 elections.
The Kurdish political scene remained dominated by the traditional split between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan parties, with ongoing negotiations between the two over the presidency.
By convention, Iraq’s president is always a Kurd, while the more powerful prime minister is Shiite and the parliamentary speaker Sunni.
Parliament is required to elect a speaker within 15 days of the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of the election result, which occurred on Dec. 14.
The parliament should elect a president within 30 days of its first session, and the prime minister should be appointed within 15 days of the president’s election, with 30 days allotted to form the new government.
Washington steps in
The incoming government will face major economic and political challenges.
They include a high level of public debt — more than 90 trillion Iraqi dinars ($69 billion) — and a state budget that remains reliant on oil for about 90 percent of revenues, despite attempts to diversify, as well as entrenched corruption.
But perhaps the most delicate question will be the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of militias that formed to fight the Daesh group as it rampaged across Iraq more than a decade ago.
It was formally placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016 but in practice still operates with significant autonomy. After the Hamas-led attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 sparked the devastating war in Gaza, some armed groups within the PMF launched attacks on US bases in the region in retaliation for Washington’s backing of Israel.
The US has been pushing for Iraq to disarm Iran-backed groups — a difficult proposition, given the political power that many of them hold and Iran’s likely opposition to such a step.
Two senior Iraqi political officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to comment publicly, said that the United States had warned against selecting any candidate for prime minister who controls an armed faction and also cautioned against letting figures associated with militias control key ministries or hold significant security posts.
“The biggest issue will be how to deal with the pro-Iran parties with armed wings, particularly those... which have been designated by the United States as terrorist entities,” Jiyad said.
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