Oil Updates – crude rises $2 as US sanctions, stockpile forecasts raise supply worries

Brent futures rose $1.96, or 2.28 percent, to $87.96 per barrel as of 11:19 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock.
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Updated 13 October 2023
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Oil Updates – crude rises $2 as US sanctions, stockpile forecasts raise supply worries

LONDON: Oil prices jumped $2 on Friday after the US tightened its sanctions program against Russian crude exports, raising supply concerns in an already tight market, and global inventories are forecast to decline through the fourth quarter, according to Reuters.

Brent futures rose $1.96, or 2.28 percent, to $87.96 per barrel as of 11:19 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.98, or 2.39 percent, to $84.89 a barrel. Both benchmarks had earlier hit gains of $2.

Despite fluctuations through the week in both benchmarks, Brent was set for a weekly gain of almost 4 percent, while WTI was set to climb over 2.5 percent for the week, after both contracts surged on Monday. 

The uptick was driven by the potential for disruptions to Middle Eastern exports after Palestinian militant group Hamas’ attack on Israel at the weekend threatened a possible wider conflict.

“(A) geopolitical risk premium still lingers around the corner that is likely to support oil prices in the short-term,” said Kelvin Wong, senior markets analyst at OANDA in Singapore.

The market was most concerned about supply constraints from the Middle East and Russia, said Wong.

On Thursday, the US imposed the first sanctions on owners of tankers carrying Russian oil priced above the G7’s price cap of $60 a barrel, to close loopholes in the mechanism designed to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer and a major exporter and the tighter US scrutiny of its shipments could curtail supply.

Also on Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries kept its forecast for growth in global oil demand, citing signs of a resilient world economy so far this year and expected further demand gains in China, the world’s biggest oil importer.

“Supply side issues remained the focus in the crude oil market,” Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a note on Friday, adding that prices during early trade on Friday rose on the stronger US sanctions enforcement.

“Sentiment was also boosted after OPEC said it expects crude stockpiles to slump by 3 (million barrels per day) this quarter. That assumes that there are no further supply disruptions emanating from the Israel-Hamas war,” Hynes said.

Oil prices also shrugged off data released on Friday showing a month-on-month decline in Chinese crude imports.


Global oil, gas shipping costs surge as Iran vows to close Strait of Hormuz

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Global oil, gas shipping costs surge as Iran vows to close Strait of Hormuz

  • Mideast-China VLCC rate exceeds $400,000/day
  • Atlantic, Pacific LNG freight rates jump more than 40 percent
  • South ‌Korea maritime ministry tells shippers to refrain from operating in the Mideast

SINGAPORE: Global oil and gas shipping rates soared, with supertanker costs in the ​Middle East hitting all-time highs, as the US-Iran conflict intensified after Tehran targeted ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping data and industry sources on Tuesday.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, which carries around one-fifth of oil consumed globally as well as large quantities of liquefied natural gas, has ground to a near halt after vessels in the area were hit as Iran retaliated to US and Israeli strikes.

The disruption and fears of prolonged closure have caused oil and European natural gas prices to jump, with Brent crude futures up nearly 10 percent this week ‌as the conflict triggered ‌multiple oil and gas shutdowns in the Middle East.

The benchmark ​freight ‌rate ⁠for the ​very ⁠large crude carriers used to ship 2 million barrels of oil from the Middle East to China, also known as TD3, rose to an all-time high of W419 on the Worldscale industry measure used to calculate freight rates, on Monday, or $423,736 per day, LSEG data showed. 

The rate doubled from Friday, extending gains from a six-year high last week, after the US and Israel attacked Iran and killed its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei on Saturday.

In retaliation, Iran has struck Gulf countries, prompting precautionary shutdowns at oil and gas ⁠facilities across the Middle East.

An Iranian Revolutionary Guards senior official said on ‌Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and Iran ‌will fire on any ship trying to pass, Iranian media reported. The ​US military’s Central Command said the Strait ‌is not closed despite the Iranian statements, Fox News reported.

LNG shipping rates jump

Still, daily freight rates ‌for LNG tankers jumped more than 40 percent on Monday after Qatar halted its production.

Atlantic rates rose to $61,500 per day on Monday, up 43 percent, or $18,750, from Friday, according to Spark Commodities, a pricing assessment agency for LNG shipping.

Pacific rates rose to $41,000 per day, up 45 percent, or $12,750, from Friday.

Fraser Carson, principal analyst for global LNG at energy consultancy ‌Wood Mackenzie, said spot daily LNG shipping rates could rise above $100,000 this week on tight supply.

“Vessel availability for the rest of March is ⁠considered weak as cargo operators ⁠try to work through the backlog created by weather disruptions during February,” he said.

“There will be very strong competition for any available vessels,” he added.

Until safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz can be assured, shipping will remain idle, Carson said.

An oil shipbroker who declined to be named due to company policy said it is very difficult to assess shipping rates in the Gulf as several shipowners have suspended operations indefinitely.

South Korean shipping firm Hyundai Glovis said on Tuesday it is preparing contingency plans including securing alternative routes and ports in response to the Middle East conflict.

South Korea’s maritime ministry has issued a notice to South Korean shippers with vessels sailing in the Middle East, asking them to refrain from business operations in the region, an official told Reuters on Tuesday.

The ministry is holding a ​meeting to discuss further safety measures following Iran’s ​threat to attack any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the official added.