CAIRO: Ahmed Salah grew anxious when he heard the news that Russia had suspended a crucial wartime grain deal. The bakery owner in Egypt’s capital is concerned it could mean global food prices soar.
“There mightn’t be immediate impact,” the 52-year-old said last week as he oversaw workers baking bread in his shop in Cairo, “but if they didn’t find a solution soonest, things would be very difficult.”
Russia pulled out of the deal brokered by the UN and Turkiye to allow Ukraine’s grain to flow during a global food crisis. It helped stabilize food prices that soared last year after Russia invaded Ukraine — two countries that are major suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other food to developing nations.
Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, and other lower-income Middle Eastern countries like Lebanon and Pakistan worry about what comes next. Struggling with economic woes that have driven more people into poverty, they fear rising food prices could create even more pain for households, businesses and government bottom lines.
Many have diversified their sources of wheat, the main ingredient for flatbread that is a staple of diets in many Mideast countries, and don’t expect shortages. Pakistan has even seen a bumper crop despite unprecedented flooding last year.
But the end of the grain deal is creating uncertainty about price hikes, a major driver of hunger.
It “is an unnecessary shock for the 345 million acutely food insecure people around the world,” said Abeer Etefa, a spokeswoman for the UN’s World Food Program.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call Wednesday that he is pushing to extend the grain deal because the long-term cutoff of Ukrainian ports “does not benefit anyone” and low-income countries “will suffer the most,” according to a statement from Erdogan’s office.
Russia, meanwhile, is launching attacks on Ukrainian ports and agricultural infrastructure, leading global wheat prices to zigzag. Despite the volatility, the costs are below what they were before Russia invaded Ukraine, and there is enough production to meet worldwide demand, said Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute.
But for low-income countries like war-torn Yemen or Lebanon that are big wheat importers, finding suppliers that are farther away will add costs, he said. Plus, their currencies have weakened against the US dollar, which is used to buy grain on world markets.
“It’s one reason why you see food price inflation lingering in a lot of countries — because even though world prices I mentioned are at prewar levels, that’s in dollars. And if you put it in, say, the Egyptian pound, you’ll see that Egypt wheat prices are actually up,” said Glauber, former chief economist at the US Department of Agriculture.
“They’re certainly as high as they were during the high points of 2022,” he said.
That packs pressure on governments, which will have to pay more to keep subsidizing bread at the same level and avoid raising costs for households, he said. With many also seeing their foreign currency reserves dwindle, it could put countries in the Middle East and elsewhere in a more precarious financial situation.
Salah, the bakery owner, fears that if wheat prices spike, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s government could respond by hiking prices of bread.
“Such move would have heavy toll on ordinary people,” he said.
El-Sisi and other leaders raised concerns about higher food prices at a summit Russia hosted for African nations last week. He called for reviving the Black Sea deal through a “consensual solution” that takes into consideration “all parties’ demands and interests and put an end to the continued surge in grain prices.”
Homegrown grain doesn’t meet even half of Egypt’s demand, particularly wheat and corn. It buys over 10 million tons of wheat — mostly from Russia and Ukraine — and that is expected to grow.
Local wheat production is expected to remain at 9.8 million tons, while consumption increases by 2 percent to 20.5 million tons in 2023-2024, according to a USDA report from April.
However, the government said the impact of the end of the grain deal is minimal so far. Supply Minister Ali Moselhi said last week that Egypt has diversified its sources of imported wheat and that its stockpile would cover the country’s needs for five months.
Its wheat purchases from Ukraine have declined by 73.6 percent over the 2021-2022 period as Egypt tapped other sources, the USDA said.
Any increase in wheat prices would further strain Egypt’s economy, which has struggled from decades of mismanagement and outside shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine. That could force the government to cut nonsubsidy spending and push up inflation, Capital Economics said.
Food costs already are fueling a cost-of-living crisis. Annual inflation hit a record 36.8 percent in June, with food prices skyrocketing by 64.9 percent.
In Lebanon, the grain deal’s collapse could be an additional hurdle as the tiny Mediterranean country relies on Ukraine for at least 90 percent of its wheat, flour millers say.
The agreement helped resolve supply shortages that shocked the market during the onset of the war, causing large breadlines and rationing. Caretaker Economy Minister Amin Salam said any negative impact on wheat prices following the deal’s collapse will “certainly” affect prices at home.
The country of some 6 million is in the throes of an economic crisis that has impoverished three-quarters of its population. Its main wheat storage silos were destroyed in the Beirut port blast in 2020, so its grain reserves lie entirely in private mills’ storage.
“We currently have two months’ worth of wheat reserves, and we have one month’s worth on the way,” said Wael Shabarek, owner of Shahba Mills. “While I expect some price increase, it won’t be the same as before — as the beginning of the war — when it was a total shock for us.”
However, Lebanon’s economy keeps shrinking, its currency has lost 90 percent of its value since 2019 and the World Food Program says local food prices are among the highest in the world.
Pakistan, meanwhile, is a bright spot. It was a major importer of Ukrainian wheat, but this year had the highest domestic production in a decade despite disastrous flooding in 2022. The bumper crop is attributed to providing seed and other aid to farmers.
The government still calls for restoration of the grain deal to ensure global food security and avoid surging prices. Pakistan, whose ailing economy is getting a $3 billion International Monetary Fund bailout, was hit hard when food prices surged after Russia’s invasion.
“The Ukraine conflict has also brought difficulties for developing countries and the Global South, particularly in terms of fuel, food and fertilizer shortages. Pakistan is no exception,” Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said.
Mideast countries that are already struggling fear price hikes after Russia exits grain deal
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Mideast countries that are already struggling fear price hikes after Russia exits grain deal
- Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, and other lower-income Middle Eastern countries worry about what comes next
- Many have diversified their sources of wheat, the main ingredient for flatbread that is a staple of diets in many Mideast countries
How Gaza’s shattered fishing industry deepened the enclave’s food security crisis
- Once a pillar of local food security, Gaza’s fishing sector has been reduced to a fraction of its prewar capacity
- UN agencies warn the destruction of boats and ports has deepened aid dependence and worsened protein shortages
DUBAI: Gaza’s fishing industry — once a critical source of food, income and affordable protein — has been largely destroyed as a result of Israel’s war with Hamas, worsening the Palestinian enclave’s food security crisis.
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, fishing activity in Gaza now stands at less than 10 percent of prewar levels following the widespread destruction of boats, ports and equipment, combined with prolonged maritime closures enforced under Israel’s naval blockade.
UN and human rights organizations estimate that up to 72 percent of Gaza’s fishing fleet has been damaged or destroyed, alongside near-total devastation of related infrastructure, including landing sites, storage facilities and repair workshops.
The remaining vessels are small, damaged skiffs capable of operating only meters from shore.
Ramzy Baroud, a journalist, author and editor of The Palestine Chronicle, said the destruction of Gaza’s fishing sector must be understood as part of a deliberate policy aimed at preventing Palestinians from developing independent food-producing systems.
Baroud says Israel had pursued a strategy since 1967 to foster Palestinian dependency — first on the Israeli economy, and later on humanitarian aid entering Gaza through Israeli-controlled crossings — leaving the population permanently vulnerable to economic collapse.
“This vulnerability is functional for Israel, as it allows the Israeli government and military to leverage their control over Palestinian lives through political pressure in pursuit of concessions,” he told Arab News.
Palestinians gather near crates of fish for sale during a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, at the seaport of Gaza City, November 12, 2025. (REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa)
Palestinians were prevented from developing local industry through restrictions on imports and exports, while much of Gaza’s arable land was seized or turned into military targets, he said.
“Likewise, the fishing sector was deliberately crippled through direct attacks on fishermen, including arrests, live fire, confiscation of equipment, and the sinking or destruction of boats,” he added.
FAO has documented widespread destruction across Gaza’s coastal fishing areas.
“In Gaza’s fishing areas now lie broken boats, torn nets, and ruined infrastructure, standing in stark contrast to the once-vibrant industry that supported thousands of fishers for generations,” Beth Bechdol, FAO deputy director-general, said in a statement.
Before the war, more than 4,000 registered fishermen worked along Gaza’s 40-kilometer coastline, supporting tens of thousands of family members and contributing to local food security in an enclave heavily dependent on imports.
Today, the majority have been stripped of their livelihoods, as access to the sea has become sporadic, dangerous, or entirely prohibited.
For decades, fishing off Gaza was restricted to shifting maritime zones — typically between three and 12 nautical miles offshore — often tightened or closed entirely during periods of escalation.
Since October 2023, when the Israel-Hamas conflict began, humanitarian organizations say there have been extended periods of total maritime closure, effectively banning fishing and depriving Gaza’s population of one of its few remaining sources of local food production.
Baroud said the assault on Gaza’s fishing sector was not a by-product of war, but part of a deliberate strategy that intensified during the conflict.
“For Gaza, the sea represents freedom,” he said. “All of Gaza’s other borders are controlled by Israel, either directly or indirectly.”
Israel had consistently worked to deny Palestinians access to the sea, he said. And despite commitments under the Oslo Accords to allow fishing up to 20 nautical miles offshore, those provisions were never honored.
“The assault on Gaza’s fishing sector is therefore not incidental,” Baroud said. “It is about severing Palestinians from one of the few spaces not entirely enclosed by walls, checkpoints, and military control.”
Israel has generally rejected or not accepted accusations that it is unlawfully targeting Gaza’s fishermen, framing incidents at sea as enforcement of security zones or as under investigation rather than deliberate attacks on civilians.
In past lethal incidents at sea highlighted by Human Rights Watch, the Israel Defense Forces have typically said boats “deviated from the designated fishing zone” and that forces fired after warnings were ignored.
According to FAO, rebuilding Gaza’s fishing sector will be impossible without a fundamental change in access and security conditions.
“For Gazans, the sea was not just a source of food, but a source of livelihood and identity,” Bechdol said.
“FAO can assist to help rebuild Gaza’s fishing industry. But for this to happen, peace must first be established and fishers must be allowed to operate their boats and cast their nets without fear of harm.”
Ciro Fiorillo, head of the FAO office for the West Bank and Gaza, said the agency is primed to offer assistance once the security situation improves.
“FAO is ready to restart projects, replenish damaged boats and equipment, and inject emergency funds as soon as these key fishing inputs for production are allowed to enter the Strip, a sustained ceasefire is in place, and access to the sea is restored,” Fiorillo said in a statement.
Since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel triggered the Israeli military assault on Gaza, much of the enclave has been flattened, tens of thousands killed, and some 90 percent of the population displaced.
Even since the ceasefire came into effect with the exchange of hostages and prisoners in October last year, pockets of violence have continued and humanitarian needs remain dire. The collapse of fishing has only compounded an already catastrophic food crisis.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has repeatedly warned that the destruction of food-producing systems — including agriculture, fisheries and markets — has pushed Gaza toward famine, with households facing extreme shortages of protein and calories.
With farmland destroyed, livestock killed and imports severely restricted, fish was once among the few foods that could still be sourced locally.
Its near disappearance has driven prices beyond reach for most families and increased dependence on limited humanitarian aid.
“This is about denying Palestinians access to life itself — to survival,” said Baroud.
The destruction of fishing forces Palestinians into deeper dependence on humanitarian aid that Israel itself controls, effectively weaponizing food rather than allowing Palestinians to sustain themselves independently, he said.
Human rights groups documenting maritime enforcement report that fishermen attempting to operate — even close to the shore — face gunfire, pursuit, detention and arrest, contributing to a climate in which fishing has become a life-threatening activity rather than a livelihood.
According to rights monitors, the destruction of larger vessels has eliminated the possibility of reaching deeper waters, forcing the few remaining fishermen to operate in unsafe, shallow zones with damaged equipment, limited fuel and no protection.
Baroud said international law clearly obligates an occupying power to protect civilian livelihoods and ensure access to food and means of survival.
“The systematic targeting of fishermen — who are civilians engaged in subsistence activity — cannot be justified as a military necessity, especially when it results in starvation and famine,” Baroud said.
He said the Fourth Geneva Convention prohibits collective punishment, the destruction of civilian infrastructure and the targeting of livelihoods.
The Palestinian Centre for Human Rights has described the restriction of Gaza’s fishing sector as part of a broader assault on civilian survival systems, warning that the denial of access to the sea has direct implications for nutrition, employment and aid dependency.
Baroud said the recovery of Gaza’s fishing sector could not occur in isolation from the broader economy.
“Only a measure of real freedom for Palestinians — freedom of movement, access to land and sea, and the ability to import, export and produce independently — can allow Gaza’s industries and economy to recover,” he said.
Without ending the system of control governing Palestinian life, Baroud said, any discussion of reconstruction or recovery would remain hollow.
As famine warnings intensify, the fishing sector’s collapse stands as a stark example of how Gaza’s food system has fractured.
What was once a daily livelihood is now reduced to occasional, high-risk attempts to secure food.
With no functioning fleet and no safe access to waters, Gaza’s fishermen are operating at the edge of survival.
