Inflation in Saudi Arabia to remain at 2.8% in 2023 despite global challenges: IMF

The growth of the non-oil sector is considered very crucial for the Kingdom’s future as it is currently pursuing its economic diversification journey. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 07 June 2023
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Inflation in Saudi Arabia to remain at 2.8% in 2023 despite global challenges: IMF

RIYADH: Thanks to a strong currency and a ceiling on gasoline prices, the International Monetary Fund has kept its inflation projection for Saudi Arabia unchanged at 2.8 percent in 2023.

The Kingdom’s non-oil sector is predicted to remain strong and grow at an average of 5 percent this year, the Washington-based lender noted.

The growth of the non-oil sector is considered very crucial for the Kingdom’s future as it is currently pursuing its economic diversification journey. 

In May, the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia also echoed similar views. It stated that the possibilities of a rise in headline and core inflation in oil-exporting countries remain low.  

“Headline and core inflation in many oil-exporting countries like Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia remain relatively lower than elsewhere — as subsidies and caps on certain products, the strengthening of the US dollar to which many of the countries peg their currencies, and limited share of food in the consumer price index basket have helped to offset imported inflationary pressures,” said the IMF in the report.  

The IMF mission to the Kingdom also welcomed the Saudi government’s efforts to decouple spending from oil price fluctuations “by establishing and implementing a fiscal rule decisively.” 

In April, the IMF also revised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth this year by 0.5 percent to 3.1 percent, compared to its previous projection of 2.6 percent in January. 

The fund, however, downgraded its projection for the Kingdom by about 0.3 percent to 3.1 percent in 2024, down from 3.4 percent in January. 

The IMF mission which concluded its visit to Saudi Arabia also praised the structural reforms which are happening in the Kingdom in line with Vision 2030. 

IMF noted that Saudi Arabia has witnessed remarkable progress in digitization, regulatory and business environment, and women’s participation in the workforce. 

According to the lender, Saudi Arabia is the fastest-growing economy among the G20 nations, and pointed out that the Kingdom has made remarkable progress in reducing unemployment rate. 

Earlier in March, Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics revealed that the unemployment rate among Saudis has dropped to its lowest level since records began in 1991.

According to the report, unemployment fell to 8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, from 9.9 percent in the previous three months. 

IMF also lauded Saudi Arabia’s efforts to go net zero, and it welcomed various initiatives of the Kingdom to go sustainable which include the increased use of renewable energy, embracing carbon capture and storage technology, along with the ambitious plan to become the world’s largest hydrogen exporter. 

Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development upgraded Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product growth to 2.9 percent in 2023, from its initial forecast of 2.6 percent in March.  

Earlier in May, a report released by GASTAT suggested that Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.7 percent in April compared to March 2023.  

In October 2022, the IMF noted that Saudi Arabia would remain the fastest-expanding economy among the G20 countries, despite the turmoil caused by rising inflation and soaring interest rates.


Maersk latest shipping firm to halt Gulf cargo bookings as Iran conflict pushes up insurance costs 

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Maersk latest shipping firm to halt Gulf cargo bookings as Iran conflict pushes up insurance costs 

JEDDAH: Danish shipping giant Maersk has suspended cargo bookings to and from several Gulf markets in light of the war in Iran, becoming the latest logistics company to reassess its operations in the region.

The firm has halted new business related to the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar, as well as Iraq, Bahrain, parts of Saudi Arabia and most ports in Oman “until further notice” after a fresh risk assessment.  

In a statement, Maersk added that “exceptions will be made for critical foodstuff, medicine and other essential goods,” and the measure does not apply to Jordan and Lebanon. Two of its vessels are currently in the Gulf.

This comes as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on March 5 that passage through the critical transit passage of the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Iranian control during wartime and claimed a US tanker had been hit in the northern Gulf, though there was no immediate independent confirmation of the incident. 

The strait is a critical transit route for roughly 20 percent of global crude oil shipments and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas. 

Khaled Ramadan, an economist and head of the International Center for Strategic Studies in Cairo, said oil and gas transit through Hormuz could fall by as much as 80 percent if tensions intensify, driving up prices and creating shortages. 

“This crisis will also hamper global trade by escalating freight and insurance costs, forcing vessel rerouting, and causing widespread supply chain delays, particularly for oil-dependent economies,” he told Arab News. 

Hapag-Lloyd said on March 5 it would implement contingency procedures for cargo already in transit to and from the Upper Gulf after suspending all shipments to and from the area. 

The company said vessels may be diverted to contingency ports or held in safe waters for shipments linked to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, as well as Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Oman and Yemen. 

Chinese shipping line COSCO Shipping has halted new container bookings to multiple Gulf ports following traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, while Mediterranean Shipping Co. has announced the end of a voyage. 

In a statement on March 3, MSC said: “In light of the ongoing situation in the Middle East, MSC regrets to inform you that it is compelled to declare an End of Voyage for all shipments currently under MSC’s custody and care, whether located ashore or at sea, and destined for ports in the Arabian Gulf.” 

It added that all shipments already en route will be diverted to the nearest safe port, with a mandatory $800 surcharge per container to cover deviation costs. 

MSC later said Gulf-bound cargo would be offloaded at the closest safe seaport amid ongoing hostilities following US and Israeli attacks on Iran. 

CMA CGM has also introduced emergency measures for Gulf-bound vessels, prioritizing the safety of crews, ships, and cargo. 

APM Terminals Bahrain declared force majeure at Khalifa Bin Salman Port, saying regional security conditions were disrupting port operations and that the duration of the disruption remained uncertain. 

Insurance providers have also reduced Gulf exposure. Reuters reported that Angus Blayney of Gallagher said London insurers were still offering cover, but at sharply higher premiums depending on cargo, vessel type and route. 

Separately, the agency reported that insurance broker Marsh McLennan said it had met US officials to explore ways to restore maritime trade as escalating fighting threatens energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.