Climate, ice sheets & sea level: the news is not good for Pakistan, other vulnerable countries

In this file picture taken on August 31, 2022, local residents use a temporary cradle service to cross the river Swat after heavy rains in Bahrain town of Swat valley in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. (Photo courtesy: AFP/File)
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Updated 17 February 2023
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Climate, ice sheets & sea level: the news is not good for Pakistan, other vulnerable countries

  • The risk, which will play out over centuries, may also be greater than expected
  • Study shows number of people threatened is underestimated by tens of millions

PARIS: Parts of Earth’s ice sheets that could lift global oceans by meters will likely crumble with another half degree Celsius of warming, and are fragile in ways not previously understood, according to new research.

The risk, which will play out over centuries, may also be greater than expected for a significant portion of the world’s population in coastal regions.

New research suggests that the number of people threatened by sea level rise has been underestimated by tens of millions because of poorly-interpreted satellite data and a lack of scientific resources in developing countries.

Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica have shed more than half-a-trillion tons annually since 2000 — six icy Olympic pools every second.

These kilometers-thick ice cubes have replaced glacier melt as the single biggest source of sea level rise, which has accelerated three-fold over the last decades compared to most of the 20th century.

A 20 centimeters increase since 1900 has boosted the destructive wallop of ocean storms made more powerful and wide-ranging by global warming, and is driving salt water into populous, low-lying agricultural deltas across Asia and Africa.

Up to now, climate models have underestimated how much ice sheets will add to future sea level rise because they mostly looked at the one-way impact of rising air temperatures on the ice, and not the complicated interaction between atmosphere, oceans, ice sheet and ice shelves.

Using so-called active ice sheet models, scientists from South Korea and the US projected how much ice sheets would raise global oceans by 2150 under three emissions scenarios: swift and deep cuts as called for by the UN’s IPCC advisory panel, current climate policies, and a steep increase in carbon pollution.

Looking only at a 2100 horizon is misleading, because oceans will continue to rise for hundreds of years no matter how quickly humanity draws down emissions.

If rising temperatures — up 1.2C above preindustrial levels so far — can be capped at 1.5C, the additional impact of ice sheets will remain very small, they found.

But under current policies, including national carbon-cutting pledges under the 2015 Paris Agreement, Greenland and Antarctica would add about half-a-meter to the global watermark.

And if emissions increase — from human or natural sources — under a “worst case” scenario, enough ice would melt to lift oceans 1.4 meters.

Perhaps the most striking finding from the study, published this week in Nature Communications, was a red line for runaway ice-sheet disintegration.

“Our model has a threshold between 1.5C and 2C of warming — with 1.8C as a best estimate — for acceleration of ice loss and sea level increase,” co-author Fabian Schloesser from the University of Hawaii, told AFP.

Scientists have long known that the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets — which together could lift oceans 13 meters — have “tipping points” beyond which complete disintegration is inevitable, whether in centuries or millennia. But pinpointing these temperature trip wires has remained elusive.

A pair of studies this week in Nature, meanwhile, showed that Antarctica’s Thwaites “doomsday glacier” — a slab the size of Britain sliding toward the sea — is fracturing in unsuspected ways.

Thwaites is one of the fastest moving glaciers on the continent, and has retreated 14 kilometers since the 1990s. Much of it is below sea level and susceptible to irreversible ice loss.

But exactly what is driving the march to the sea has been unclear for lack of data.

An international expedition of British and US scientists drilled a hole the depth of two Eiffel towers (600 meters) through the thick tongue of ice Thwaites has pushed out over the Southern Ocean’s Amundsen Sea.

Using sensors and an underwater robot, called Icefin, threaded through the hole, they examined the ice shelf’s hidden underbelly.

There was less melting than expected in some places, but far more in others.

The stunned scientists discovered up-side-down staircase formations — like an underwater Escher drawing — with accelerated erosion, along with long fissures being forced open by sea water.

“Warm water is getting into the cracks, helping wear down the glacier at its weakest point,” said Britney Schmidt, lead author of one of the studies and an associate professor at Cornell University in New York.

A fourth study, published last week in the American Geophysical Union journal Earth’s Future, found that rising oceans will destroy farmland, ruin water supplies and uproot millions of people sooner than thought.

“The time available to prepare for increased exposure to flooding may be considerably less than assumed to date,” Dutch researchers Ronald Vernimmen and Aljosja Hooijer concluded.

The new analysis shows that a given amount of sea level rise — whether 30 or 300 centimeters — will devastate twice the area projected in most models to date.

Remarkably, a misinterpretation of data is mostly to blame: radar measurements of coastal elevations used until recently, it turned out, often mistook tree canopy and rooftops for ground level, adding meters of elevation that were not in fact there.

Most vulnerable will be tens of millions of people in the coastal areas of Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, Thailand, Nigeria and Vietnam.

Earlier research taking into account more accurate elevation readings found that areas currently home to 300 million people will be vulnerable by mid-century to flooding made worse by climate change, no matter how aggressively emissions are reduced.


Punjab health minister says lack of ‘informed consent’ led to blindness caused by experimental drug

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Punjab health minister says lack of ‘informed consent’ led to blindness caused by experimental drug

  • Nearly 70 patients of diabetes across the province suffered vision loss after being administered Avastin medicine
  • The drug is primarily used to treat cancer but is also prescribed for diabetic retinopathy-related edema in Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: Punjab’s interim health minister Dr. Javed Akram announced on Tuesday an experimental medication suspected of causing vision loss among dozens of diabetics across the province was administered by hospitals without following proper procedures that included obtaining “informed consent” from patients.

Nearly 70 individuals from various districts in Punjab reported eye infections leading to blindness in recent weeks after receiving injections of Avastin. The medication is primarily used to treat cancer but is also prescribed off-label in Pakistan for diabetic retinopathy-related edema.

Pakistan imposed a temporary ban on the drug earlier this week after patients began losing their vision and initiated an inquiry to assign responsibility.

In a media briefing in Lahore, the provincial health minister said the off-label use of any medication required prior authorization from the Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (DRAP).

“This did not happen,” he clarified. “Moreover, the good clinical practice of securing informed consent [from patients in such cases] was also not followed.”

Dr. Akram emphasized that it was mandatory to seek a patient’s consent “in the local language when administering an experimental drug.”

He disclosed that the government had now decided to require audiovisual recordings from hospital authorities, demonstrating that patients had been clearly informed of the benefits and risks associated with off-label medication use.

The minister reiterated the government’s commitment to bringing those responsible for this criminal negligence to justice and confirmed that Avastin would be available only for cancer treatment while the inquiry continued.


Minister says Pakistan to finalize first artificial intelligence policy by December

Updated 27 September 2023
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Minister says Pakistan to finalize first artificial intelligence policy by December

  • The information technology minister says it is important to help people develop AI skills since they are quite valuable
  • The government is setting up a policy committee of experts from IT industry and academia to finalize the draft policy

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s interim information technology minister Umar Saif said on Tuesday his team had prepared the draft of the National Artificial Intelligence Policy and was currently in consultation with relevant stakeholders to finalize it by December.
Artificial intelligence, often abbreviated as AI, refers to the development of computer systems that can perform tasks typically requiring human intelligence. These tasks include learning from data, recognizing patterns, making decisions, and solving problems. AI aims to create machines that can mimic human-like thinking and decision-making processes.
With this technology becoming more readily accessible, governments and private sectors across the world are beginning to reap its benefit while performing day-to-day functions. Pakistan’s planning ministry also acknowledged in April the AI incorporation in different government sectors would lead to better decision-making processes, personalized medical treatments, and enhanced learning experiences and solutions that were previously unattainable.
“There are far reaching consequences of this policy,” the information minister told Arab News in a brief conversation. “We have put it for public consultation. There is a draft which helped us get public comments from outside as well as inside the country … We need to train people to develop AI skills according to the policy since they can be quite valuable.”
“My goal is to finalize and notify this AI policy by December,” he continued.
Syed Junaid Imam, the spokesperson for the information technology ministry, also informed Arab News the country’s official artificial intelligence would be finalized after consultation with all stakeholders before being sent to the federal cabinet for approval.
“It is based on four main points,” he said while sharing details. “Enabling AI through awareness and readiness, AI market enablement, building a progressive and trusted environment, and its transformation and evolution.”
A recent notification by the information ministry said it was “forming a policy committee that will lead the policy consultation process and finalize the draft,” adding that the members of the committee would have experts from industry, academia and the government.
“The National AI Policy is crafted to focus on the equitable distribution of opportunity and its responsible use, having the defining attributes such as evidence-based and target oriented, user-centric and forward-looking, objective and overarching,” according to the draft of the policy, a copy of which was seen by the Arab News.
The draft also outlined how Pakistan would collaborate with other countries to share best practices and expertise in the AI field.
“The policy proposed the establishment of an AI regulatory directorate that ensures the ethical and responsible use of AI,” it read.
The draft policy also addressed the potential job displacement that could result from the global proliferation of the new technology.
“AI can help to promote economic growth by encouraging investment in AI research and development which can lead to the creation of new jobs and industries, as well as improved productivity and efficiency,” it said.
It further stated that owing to the impact of artificial globally, the Pakistani government envisioned embracing it by appreciating human intelligence and stimulating a hybrid intelligence ecosystem for equitable, responsible and transparent AI use.


Russia confirms delivery of first LPG shipment to Pakistan via Iran in expanded energy ties

Updated 27 September 2023
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Russia confirms delivery of first LPG shipment to Pakistan via Iran in expanded energy ties

  • Pakistan imported 100,000 tons of discounted Russian oil under a government-to-government arrangement in Juna
  • Consultations on second LPG shipment are underway after the first was routed through Iran’s Special Economic Zone

KARACHI: In a move marking an expansion of energy ties between the two countries, the Russian diplomatic mission in Islamabad confirmed the delivery of 100,000 metric tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to Pakistan through Iran on Tuesday.
The delivery follows an earlier government-to-government (G2G) deal that saw Pakistan import 100,000 tons of discounted Russian crude oil on June 11, which prompted former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to describe it as a “transformative day” for the economically struggling South Asian nation.
The LPG shipment, announced by the Russian embassy in a social media post, comes as Pakistan seeks to diversify its energy portfolio with more affordable options.
“Russia has delivered the first batch of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the amount of 100 thousand metric tons to Pakistan through Iran’s Sarakhs Special Economic Zone,” it said on messaging platform X, formerly known as Twitter. “Consultations on the second shipment are underway.”

Pakistan has already started blending Russian oil with imported crude from the Gulf markets.
Zahid Mir, a top official at Pakistan Oil Refinery, told Arab News last month that the Russian crude had been successfully processed by the country, adding that the spot deal with Moscow was both technically and commercially viable.
He also informed negotiations for further cargo imports were underway.
Pakistan plans to import about 20 percent of its crude oil from Russia at discounted rates to meet its growing energy demand.
It meets about 43 percent of its LPG requirement, with a total annual consumption of 4,600 metric tons, through local production, according to data compiled by the Petroleum Club of Pakistan.
Pakistani officials could not be approached for comments on the story.


Pakistan cricket team departs for India to participate in World Cup 

Updated 27 September 2023
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Pakistan cricket team departs for India to participate in World Cup 

  • Bowling coach Morne Morkel to join squad in Dubai, Team Director Mickey Arthur to meet team in Dubai
  • Pakistan last played cricket on Indian soil in 2016 when Shahid Afridi led them in the T20 World Cup that year

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan men’s cricket team left for India late Tuesday night to participate in the 50-over World Cup, which kicks off on Oct. 5. 

It is the first time in seven years that the South Asian country is sending its cricket team to India. The last time Pakistan’s men’s cricket team set foot on Indian soil was in 2016 to take part in that year’s T20 World Cup. 

Political tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors mean they only play against each other at international venues. Skipper Babar Azam’s side will play two warm-up matches against New Zealand and Australia on Sept. 29 and Oct. 3 respectively before they begin their World Cup campaign against the Netherlands on Oct. 6. 

Pakistan's World Cup squad gets photographed in Lahore, Pakistan, before departing to India for the upcoming Cricket World Cup on September 26, 2023.(Photo courtesy: @TheRealPCB/X)

“Pakistan cricket team are at the Lahore airport to depart for India to participate in the World Cup,” the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) said in a statement. 

A short video clip shared by the PCB showed Azam, vice-captain Shadab Khan, and the other cricketers enjoying snacks at the airport lounge before their departure. 

“The travel contingent consists 18 players and 13 player support personnel,” the PCB said, adding that South African bowling coach Morne Morkel will join the team in Dubai while former Pakistan coach and current Team Director Mickey Arthur will join the squad in India. 

“Pakistan are scheduled to land in Hyderabad, India at 8:15pm (local time) on 27 September,” the PCB said. 

In his pre-departure press conference, Azam told reporters the team was enjoying a “very high morale” heading into the showpiece tournament.

“We are leaving tonight for the World Cup and as a team our morale is very high, there is confidence,” Azam said. “We will try to play our best cricket.

“We could not deliver up to the mark [in Asia Cup], but we learned from it. We just don’t point out our errors, but we also talk about how to improve those sides.”

Pakistan started the Asia Cup on a high note, beating minnows Nepal and Bangladesh and also bowling India out for 266 in the group fixture match between the two sides on Sept. 2. 

However, the hosts suffered a mammoth defeat of 228 runs at India’s hands in the Super Four stage of the tournament before a last-ball defeat against Sri Lanka meant they couldn’t qualify for the final. 

Only two players from Pakistan’s current squad have traveled to India before: Mohammad Nawaz, who was part of Pakistan’s 2016 T20 World Cup squad, and Agha Salman, who was in the Lahore Lions’ squad for the Champions League T20.

“I’m very excited to play in Ahmedabad. It is the biggest stadium in the world and will be jam-packed for the India-Pakistan clash,” Azam said about playing in India for the first time in his years-long career.

 “I have spoken to former cricketers about the condition and they are not that different … I will try to perform to the best of my ability. I can’t exactly tell you how I will do since I’m not an astrologer.”


Ex-PM Khan shifted to Rawalpindi’s Adiala Jail on court’s orders

Updated 26 September 2023
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Ex-PM Khan shifted to Rawalpindi’s Adiala Jail on court’s orders

  • A day earlier, Islamabad High Court ordered authorities to shift Khan to Adiala Jail 
  • Khan had filed a petition seeking to be transferred from high-security prison in Attock

ISLAMABAD: Former prime minister Imran Khan was moved on Tuesday to Rawalpindi’s Adiala Jail from a prison in Attock two days after orders from the Islamabad High Court, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party said. 
Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party said earlier during the day that its chairman was not shifted to Adiala Jail despite the Islamabad High Court’s (IHC) directives on Monday. The cricketer-turned-politician was arrested on Aug. 5 and taken to a high-security prison in Attock after a trial court in Islamabad found him guilty of “corrupt practices” in a case involving the unlawful sale of state gifts during his tenure as prime minister from 2018 to 2022.
The IHC suspended Khan’s sentence on Aug. 29 but he remains in jail on remand in another case, popularly called the cipher case, in which he is charged with leaking state secrets. The latest extension of the remand order will keep Khan in jail until Oct. 10. Meanwhile, the former PM had filed a petition with the IHC seeking his transfer to Adiala Jail.
“PTI Chairman Imran Khan, who has been serving a three-year sentence in the Toshakhana case at the Attock Jail, was on Tuesday shifted to Rawalpindi’s Adiala jail on directives of the Islamabad High Court (IHC),” Pakistan’s English-language daily Dawn said.
Separately, the PTI shared a video from the Islamabad Toll Plaza in which a few party supporters could be seen showering rose petals at the convoy of police cars transporting Khan. 

On Monday, IHC Chief Justice Aamer Farooq observed that under-trial prisoners (UTPs) of all the courts in the federal capital were kept at Adiala, issuing directions to shift Khan to that prison.
In the state secrets case, Khan is charged with making public the contents of a confidential cable sent by Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States and using it for political gain, according to the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA).
Khan alleges that the cable proves the United States had pressed Pakistan’s military to orchestrate the fall of his government because he had visited Russia shortly before its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Washington and the Pakistani military have denied Khan’s accusations.
The former prime minister also faces a range of other legal cases he says are politically motivated.