Pakistan may ‘dodge’ default in six months but troubles are not over – Bloomberg report

People buy grocery items at a market in Karachi, Pakistan, on January 6, 2023. (AFP)
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Updated 10 January 2023
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Pakistan may ‘dodge’ default in six months but troubles are not over – Bloomberg report

  • Investors are worried over ‘big’ dollar debt repayment in April 2024, Bloomberg says 
  • Bloomberg says unlikely IMF will withhold $2.6 billion loan tranches from Pakistan due to floods

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan may “dodge” default in the coming six months, however, its economic woes won’t be over as Islamabad would have to worry about a huge dollar debt repayment in April 2024, international business news publication Bloomberg reported on Monday. 

Pakistan, whose reserves have dipped to a dangerous eight-year low in recent weeks, is desperately trying to shore up its foreign exchange reserves. Talks between Islamabad and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan tranche remain suspended since September last year. 

As Pakistan faces a looming balance of payments crisis, investors and economists have voiced fears that the country may default on its payments. Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, while acknowledging the economy is in a tough spot, has repeatedly said the country will not default. 

In a report on Bloomberg Economics, the publication said the IMF’s help is enough to get Pakistan through till June. “But investors are now worried about a big dollar debt repayment due in April 2024 and are pricing those bonds at a distressed level,” the publication said. “This means Pakistan needs more external aid.”

Bloomberg said the IMF could withhold loan tranches of $2.6 billion from Pakistan. However, it added this was unlikely since the country was in “desperate need” of finances due to the impact of last year’s devastating floods. 

“The IMF money is needed to unlock $5 billion in financing expected from creditor nations and $1.7 billion in aid from the World Bank,” it said. 

Bloomberg said the amount would be enough to cover $5.9 billion in debt payments and estimated account deficits through the end of the fiscal year ending in June. However, it remained unsure how Pakistan would get through 12 months after that when its dollar financing needs would total at least $11 billion.

“This includes an estimated current account deficit of $8.8 billion and $2.2 billion in external debt repayments, among these a $1 billion dollar bond maturing in April 2024,” it said. 

The publication said external aid would help Pakistan increase its foreign exchange reserves to $14.9 billion. “This should cover dollar payments only through March 2024 — leaving the April bond repayment in question,” it added. 


World Bank approves $700 million for Pakistan’s economic stability

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World Bank approves $700 million for Pakistan’s economic stability

  • Of this, $600 million will go for federal programs and $100 million will ⁠support a provincial program in Sindh
  • The results-based design ensures that resources are only disbursed once program objectives are achieved

ISLAMABAD: The World Bank has approved $700 million in ​financing for Pakistan under a multi-year initiative aimed at supporting the country’s macroeconomic stability and service delivery, the bank said on Friday.

The funds will be released under the bank’s Public ‌Resources for Inclusive ‌Development — Multiphase ‌Programmatic ⁠Approach (PRID-MPA) that ‌could provide up to $1.35 billion in total financing, according to the lender.

Of this amount, $600 million will go for federal programs and $100 million will ⁠support a provincial program in ‌the southern Sindh province. The results-based design ensures that resources are only disbursed once program objectives are achieved.

“Pakistan’s path to inclusive, sustainable growth requires mobilizing more domestic resources and ensuring they are used efficiently and transparently to deliver results for people,” World Bank country director Bolormaa Amgaabazar said in a statement.

“Through this MPA, we are working with the Federal and Sindh governments to deliver tangible impacts— more predictable funding for schools and clinics, fairer tax systems, and stronger data for decision‑making— while safeguarding priority social and climate investments and strengthening public trust.”

The approval ‍follows a $47.9 ‍million World Bank grant ‍in August to improve primary education in Pakistan’s most populous Punjab province.

In November, an IMF-World Bank ​report, uploaded by Pakistan’s finance ministry, said Pakistan’s fragmented ⁠regulation, opaque budgeting and political capture are curbing investment and weakening revenue.

Regional tensions may surface over international financing for Pakistan. In May, Reuters reported that India would oppose World Bank funding for Pakistan, citing a senior government ‌source in New Delhi.

“Strengthening Pakistan’s fiscal foundations is essential to restoring macroeconomic stability, delivering results and strengthening institutions,” said Tobias Akhtar Haque, Lead Country Economist for the World Bank in Pakistan.

“Through the PRID‑MPA, we are launching a coherent nationwide approach to support reforms that expand fiscal space, bolster investments in human capital and climate resilience, and strengthen revenue administration, budget execution, and statistical systems. These reforms will ensure that resources reach the frontline and deliver better outcomes for people across Pakistan with greater efficiency and accountability.”

In Sindh, the program is expected to increase provincial revenues, enhance the speed and transparency of payments, and broaden the use of data to guide provincial decision making. The program will directly support the increase of public resources for inclusive development, including more equitable and responsive financing for primary health care facilities and more funding for schools.