Electric vehicles emerge as key driver of Saudi-China climate-change fight
China is the world’s largest market for EVs, accounting for 53 percent of the global share
Saudi Arabia has launched its own EV brand, Ceer, and owns a stake in US maker Lucid
Updated 08 December 2022
RIYADH: China and Saudi Arabia are two of the energy powerhouses of the world and, as such, the world’s gaze turns to them in discussions around climate change.
While much of the focus is on the Kingdom’s oil production, or Beijing’s coal-mining activities, the two nations are only just starting to get recognition for their shared vision for decarbonization via electric vehicles.
This is an area of shared enthusiasm, and one where Saudi Arabia and China can further work together to lead innovation and implementation.
For its part, Saudi Arabia has handed the EV industry a prominent role in its economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.
The world’s largest oil exporter has identified the sector as one on the cusp of a boom as the globe moves away from fossil fuels, and is investing not just in overseas firms, but also in homegrown products.
The overseas backing takes the form of the US-firm Lucid. In 2018, the Public Investment Fund poured $1billion into the company and now has a 60 percent stake. The investment prompted Lucid to announce in February 2022, that it would build its first international vehicle assembly plant in King Abdullah Economic City, north of Jeddah.
To further underline its commitment to the sector, the Saudi government struck a deal with Lucid to buy up to 100,000 EVs over a 10-year period.
It is not just Lucid that will be producing EVs in the Kingdom. In October, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman unveiled Saudi Arabia’s own EV brand: Ceer.
Like Lucid, this company will produce vehicles from a plant in KAEC, with construction on the $69 million facility due to begin in early 2023.
Ceer is a joint venture with FoxConn — the Taiwan-based firm that is the largest private sector employer in China — and will further cement the ties between Saudi Arabia and the economies of the Far East.
Ceer will license component technology from BMW to design and build vehicles, including sedans and sport utility vehicles, in the Kingdom while Foxconn will develop the electrical architecture of the vehicles, resulting in a portfolio of products that will lead in infotainment, connectivity and autonomous driving technologies.
Of course, the Kingdom is not turning itself into one of the leading EV producers in the world just to appease its domestic market. Exporting these vehicles is a key part of not just Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification strategy but in reducing global emissions.
Penetrating the Chinese market could prove a challenge. Beijing has been encouraging its citizens to switch to EVs by offering subsidies for purchases. This has helped China become the largest market for EVs, accounting for 53 percent of the global share.
The Chinese government forecasts that EVs will account for 50 percent of all new car sales in the country by 2035, suggesting the appetite for such vehicles will continue to be high.
Yet while firms such as Tesla are doing well in the market — selling 83,135 cars in September in what was its best month for sales in the country — China has a thriving production sector, meaning the reliance on imports is low.
However, as is the case in many countries, one of the main barriers for mass take-up of EVs is higher purchase price than for petrol vehicles.
Saudi Arabia could find itself in a position to use its growing EV production hub being built just north of Jeddah to make affordable vehicles for what is the largest market in the world.
Should it crack that nut, the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 goal of raising non-oil exports to 50 percent of GDP looks eminently reachable.
Bangladesh secures $4.7 billion from IMF as Pakistan, Sri Lanka see delays
Bangladesh has seen a sharp widening of its current account deficit, depreciation of its currency
Pakistan, IMF negotiations expected to begin from today as Islamabad seeks to shore up its foreign reserves
Updated 31 January 2023
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved loans of $4.7 billion to Bangladesh for disbursal starting immediately, making it the first to secure such funds out of three South Asian countries that applied last year amid economic trouble.
The loans are a win for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ahead of a general election early next year and will help the country, which has seen a sharp widening of its current account deficit, depreciation of the taka currency and a decline in its foreign exchange reserves.
Bangladesh will get about $3.3 billion under the IMF's extended credit facility and related arrangements, with an immediate disbursement of about $476 million. The IMF executive board also approved about $1.4 billion under its newly created Resilience and Sustainability Facility for climate investments for Bangladesh, the first Asian country to access it.
The IMF said the loans will "protect macroeconomic stability and rebuild buffers, while helping to advance the authorities’ reform agenda". The agenda includes creating fiscal space to enable greater social and developmental spending, strengthening Bangladesh's financial sector, boosting fiscal and governance reforms and building climate resilience.
"Since independence, Bangladesh has made steady progress in reducing poverty and significant improvements in living standards," Antoinette M. Sayeh, the IMF's deputy managing director, said in a statement.
"However, the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent Russia’s war in Ukraine interrupted this long period of robust economic performance," Sayeh added. "Multiple shocks have made macroeconomic management challenging in Bangladesh."
The country last year also sought $2 billion from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank amid efforts to bolster its foreign exchange reserves.
Bangladesh's regional counterparts, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, are doing much worse economically but have not been able to get final approval for IMF loans.
Bangladesh's current account deficit hit a record $18.7 billion in the last financial year, which ended on June 30, as exports of garments failed to offset a surge in energy costs. The Bangladesh central bank expects the deficit to fall to about $6.8 billion at the end of the current fiscal year.
The government has also raised fuel and energy prices in recent months as it approached the IMF. It announced a 5% increase in retail power prices from Wednesday, the second such rise this month.
ISLAMABAD: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission will land in Pakistan tonight, Monday, to discuss a stalled ninth review of the country's current funding program, Pakistani media widely reported.
A successful IMF visit is critical for Pakistan, which is facing an increasingly acute balance of payments crisis and is desperate to secure external financing, with less than three weeks' worth of import cover in its foreign exchange reserves.
“The [IMF] delegation will stay in Pakistan for 10 days,” Samaa Digital, a leading Pakistani news portal, reported. “During the visit, the delegation will be briefed about the country’s economic performance during the second half of 2022 … The situation arising from $30 billion losses incurred by the recent floods will also be conveyed to IMF.”
The government will also brief the IMF delegation on actions it has taken to improve tax revenue and exchange rate conditions, as well as reforms in the energy sector and steps taken to squeeze the current account deficit.
Last week, Pakistan's ministry of finance announced petrol and diesel prices would rise by 35 rupees ($0.1400) a litre. Last week, the Pakistani rupee lost close to 12% of its value after the removal of price caps that were imposed by the government but which were opposed by the IMF.
Oil climbs after drone attack in Iran, China’s pledge to promote consumption
Israel suspected to be behind a Saturday night drone attack on a military factory in Iran
China resumes business this week after its Lunar New Year holidays
Updated 30 January 2023
SINGAPORE: Oil prices climbed in early Asia trade on Monday, supported by tensions in the Middle East following a drone attack in Iran and as Beijing pledged over the weekend to promote a consumption recovery which would support fuel demand.
Brent crude futures rose 54 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $87.20 a barrel by 0115 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $80.22 a barrel, up 54 cents, or 0.7 percent.
Israel appears to have been behind an overnight drone attack on a military factory in Iran, a US official said on Sunday.
“It is not really clear yet what’s happening in Iran, but any escalation there has the potential to disrupt crude flow,” said Stefano Grasso, a senior portfolio manager at 8VantEdge in Singapore.
Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, are unlikely to tweak its current oil output policy when they meet virtually on Feb. 1.
Still, indication of a rise in crude exports from Russia’s Baltic ports in early February caused Brent and WTI to post their first weekly loss in three last week.
On Saturday, China’s cabinet said it would promote a consumption recovery as the major driver of the economy and boost imports, state broadcaster CCTV reported.
“We have Russia on the supply side and China on the demand side. Both can swing by more than 1 million barrels per day above or below expectation,” said Grasso, formerly an oil trader with Italy’s Eni.
“China seems to have surprised the market in terms of how fast they are coming out of zero COVID while Russia has surprised in terms of resilience of export volume despite the sanctions.”
China resumes business this week after its Lunar New Year holidays. The number of passengers traveling prior to the holidays rose above levels in the past two years but is still below 2019, Citi analysts said in a note, citing data from the Ministry of Transport.
“Overall international traffic recovery remains gradual, with high-single to low-teens digits to 2019 level, and we expect further recovery when outbound tour group travel resumes on Feb. 6,” the Citi note said.
China’s 2022 smartphone sales fall 13%, says report
Android handset maker Vivo was the top-selling brand over the year, with a market share of 18.6 percent
Updated 30 January 2023
SHANGHAI: China’s smartphone sales fell 13 percent year-on-year in 2022, the largest plunge for the sector in a decade as consumers spent cautiously, market research firm IDC said on Sunday.
The total number of devices shipped was 286 million. That meant total 2022 sales volume was the lowest since 2013 and the first time since then that annual sales have dropped below 300 million, IDC said in a report.
Android handset maker Vivo was the top-selling brand over the year, with a market share of 18.6 percent. Its total shipments fell 25.1 percent year-on-year, however.
Honor ranked as the second best-selling brand, with shipments growing more than 34 percent, albeit from a low base.
Apple Inc. was the third best-selling phone brand in 2022, tied with Oppo.
In Q4, despite being the top-selling brand in the three-month period, year-on-year sales for iPhones were still down, as supply chain issues caused by worker unrest at manufacturer Foxconn’s plant in the city of Zhengzhou compounded worse-than expected demand, researchers wrote. Strict COVID-19 controls in China, which ramped up in the spring of 2022 across several cities, weighed heavily on its economy which slumped to one of its worst levels in nearly half-a-century last year.
The plunge in smartphone sales in China reflected the sector’s performance globally. In 2022, global smartphone shipments hit 1.2 billion, the lowest since 2013 and a year-on-year fall of more than 11 percent, according to IDC.
GCC can be a ‘latter-day Venice,’ says former UK government adviser
European trade policy expert Paul McGrade explains why now is the time for a GCC-UK free trade agreement
Domestic politics rules out UK-US FTA while India wrestles with divisions over protectionism and politics, he asserts
McGrade says British public feel Brexit was a mistake, bringing costs and “very, very few benefits”
Updated 30 January 2023
DUBAI: The GCC bloc, with its strategic location and fast-growing economies, can be a latter-day Venice, balancing between East and West, according to Paul McGrade, a former UK government adviser and an expert on UK and European trade policy, who was speaking as the GCC and the UK prepare to launch the third round of their free trade talks.
He predicts that the UK’s attempts to forge free-trade agreements with the US and India will meet with failure, in contrast with an FTA deal with the GCC, which could work despite the two sides’ policy differences over China and Russia.
He also asserts, citing opinion surveys, that the British public now feel that “Brexit was a mistake and has brought costs and very, very few benefits.”
McGrade made the comments during an appearance on “Frankly Speaking,” the Arab News current affairs talk show that dives deep into regional headlines by speaking with leading policymakers and business leaders.
He discussed what a GCC-UK trade deal would entail, whether an agreement could materialize before the end of this year and, given the political upheaval of the last 12 months, whether GCC leaders could really trust the British government’s trade promises.
“The GCC region will still have strong links with China. Energy needs there are huge and growing. (But I hope) the region will continue to have strong links with the West,” he said.
“There’s a difficult balancing act that’s going to get harder in the decades ahead. But the region is very strongly placed and, you (can) already see with the UK, and Europe more broadly, a stronger recognition that this is a strategic partnership, or a set of strategic partnerships, that they can’t afford to ignore.”
Last month, the UK government said it was committed to signing a significant trade deal with the GCC. However, given the political roller-coaster ride that the UK went on in 2022 and the fact that it is no longer the manufacturing giant of the last century, many wonder why GCC countries should still be interested and whether they can trust that the UK will deliver.
“It’s a fair question after six years really of instability in the UK, a country that always prided itself and partly sold itself on its political stability and its business-friendly regulation. It has been a bit of a roller-coaster, but I think that the high tide of Brexit disruption has passed,” McGrade said.
He said although the Tory government and the main opposition Labour Party claim they are committed to making Brexit work, what they really mean is sound public finances, a more stable regulatory relationship with Europe, a more predictable one where essentially the UK will broadly follow what the EU is doing in big areas like net-zero.
“This gives investors some confidence,” he told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”
“The UK is not going to be towing itself off into mid-Atlantic or the Pacific Ocean. It’s going to be geographically, obviously and in regulatory terms, very firmly anchored in the European neighborhood. That gives a bit of confidence and a bit of stability going forward. And the UK needs investment, which has dropped off sharply since the 2016 vote.”
As the West decouples from China, experts say it will need strong relationships with the Gulf states. McGrade believes the war in Ukraine has refocused minds on the importance of the strategic partnership with the Gulf countries. “Not just through the trade deal, which could help in some areas, but it’s a broader picture,” he said.
“There’s a huge opportunity here for Gulf states and their investors to kind of reshape this relationship in the sectors that they might want to draw into their own economies in terms of building sustainable, high-skilled models for the future.”
The Conservative government in the post-Brexit era had promised that Britain would be able to make trade deals all over the world. However, they missed their targets last year. The UK has only signed trade agreements with about 60 percent of their global trade partners and talks with the US and India have stalled.
“Some of those (trade) talks have stalled, but some of them probably weren’t very realistic anyway,” McGrade said. “The domestic politics on both sides of the Atlantic probably ruled out the kind of deep trade deal with the US that some Brexiteers said they wanted.”
As for India, he said the country does not “really have a modern ambitious free trade deal with (any entity). It is an economy that is wrestling with its own internal divisions over degrees of protecting its domestic industry. And there are politics at play on things like visas.”
He continued: “It’s a different picture when you look at the Arab world and especially the GCC, because there’s a very strong historic relationship. There are obviously difficult issues in any trade deal about market access, but the relationship is probably more positive and the politics less difficult around the content of that trade deal.”
Elaborating on the potential for cross-border investments, McGrade said: “A lot of the UK’s economic sectors are in a weak position. (But) some of the fundamentals are pretty strong in areas like health tech, digital health. We have got Arab Health Week, of course, and creative industries, net-zero technology, the traditional strengths and areas like banking, other professional services.
“These are sectors that matter to Gulf economies and may matter increasingly, as we look to kind of building a sustainable net-, post-net-zero economy. So, there’s a lot on offer in the UK and probably some of it is underpriced because of the economic hit that the country has taken over the last few years. This probably is a very good time to invest, whether or not we have a trade deal quickly. But this trade deal potentially is an easier one to do than, say, US or India in political terms.”
The Gulf states are strong strategically but the relationship with the UK will need to be two-way, experts say, with British innovation holding the promise of helping the former to become high-skilled, high-tech economies.
McGrade, for one, is confident that as the UK seeks to diversify its trade and investment relationships, the Gulf states would be important in providing access to new markets, energy sources and other areas.
“(They are) going to be vital, (when) you see a Europe cutting itself off from traditional Russian supplies of oil and gas, and is also recalibrating the relationship with China,” he said. “The US talks openly about decoupling from Chinese supply chains. The UK talks a similar kind of language. The UK is probably a bit closer to the US than some of the big European powers on this.
“If that’s the kind of world that we’re going to, then the Gulf states become more important than ever, not just for energy, but for the markets that they represent, the investment and the partnerships that they’re looking to build.”
“Look at the scale of the ambition in the Gulf, not just for sort of investment for return, but for the huge long-term sustainability project that (Gulf) governments, sovereign wealth funds and other investors are aiming for. There’s a huge opportunity for genuine partnerships where some of those innovative technologies that the UK still excels at could be a part of building up that sustainable skills base in Gulf economies.”
The UK estimates that an FTA with the GCC would add about £1.6 billion ($1.98 billion) to its economy. So, where does McGrade see the most gains for countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE?
“A trade deal is nice to have, but it’s not essential. These are already quite open economies in global terms. They already have strong trading relationships with the UK. A trade deal could help reduce some of the barriers, but it’s not the biggest game in town,” he said.
“The broader picture is looking at the sectors where UK innovation in particular can help achieve the long-term strategic aims of countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. If you look at some of the real strengths, in medical technology, health technology, digital health, we have a lot of innovation in the UK market, which is often underpinned by the fact that you have this almost unique data set because you have a huge national health service covering sort of 60 million people.”
McGrade believes the creative sector is another big source of the UK’s global strength, which can be important for areas like tourism and culture, in which some Gulf states have made a big investment. “There are areas like education that are traditional strengths and where there’s already a presence in the region from the UK,” he said.
“The professional services, banking and financial services is an obvious one. But we increasingly see legal and accounting services as well as sort of management consultancy establishing and growing their presences in the region.”
He next turned to what he called another big area, “which is the technology around net-zero, getting to net-zero, but helping make that sustainable and build economies that will be fast growing and rich, and high skilled beyond the dependence on hydrocarbons.”
“There’s a lot there. Sovereign wealth funds in the region are already investing in some of these sectors. In some cases, what they’re looking for in a partnership is to bring some of those skills back home to the region so that they can be used to help build up the domestic high skills and high tech that will be needed (in the) longer term into the century to keep high-growing rich economies in the Gulf region.”
But what happens if the UK fails to sign a specific deal with the GCC as a whole? Does it then have the option to look at single individual trade deals with, say, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar?
McGrade says this has been happening in fact. “It’s been signing individual agreements across some sectors with some of the GCC members. That would continue,” he said.
“Whatever the governments do, those economic fundamentals ought to be attractive to Gulf investors, whether that’s at the state, kind of sovereign wealth fund level or kind of business level, because some of those strengths of the UK economy, innovation across several sectors, can really be part of the answer to what Gulf economies need to do and know they need to do to build sustainable, high-skilled, post-net-zero economies for the 21st century.”
As for the GCC countries’ less hawkish approach to Russia, McGrade does not see that as a hindrance to talks with the UK. “For two reasons,” he said. “There is a greater recognition of the strategic importance of the Gulf region, for the UK and for the West generally because of the war in Russia. Because of what that means for energy prices and long-term energy needs.
“The other point is that if the West is going to decouple from China, then it needs the Gulf. The Gulf states are well placed. They are in a strong position economically.”
To be sure, McGrade said, “the UK and Western governments generally always wrestle with some public opinion and campaigning groups at home on some of the values agenda. They always worry about if that can be squared off with the needs of the strategic relationship with the Gulf. That will continue to be an issue.”
Alluding to technical and political barriers to reaching a trade deal, he acknowledged that the two sides have different opinions on certain issues but said: “They are not showstoppers. The deal is doable. It’s probably more about political will in London. It would be a failure of political will if that deal isn’t done.”
McGrade was forthright about his opinions on British voters’ decision to leave the EU three years ago. “Pretty consistent polling over time suggests that an ever-growing number of the British public feel that Brexit was a mistake and has brought costs and very, very few benefits,” he said.
Nevertheless, he said, both the Conservative and Labour parties have concluded that they cannot revisit the trade deal in a fundamental way. “There is a review of the trade deal at the five-year point, which comes in 2025,” he said. “If Labour wins the election, they will want to improve the terms of the trade deal without changing its fundamental character.”
Quizzed about his personal opinion on Brexit’s costs — a weakened pound, higher inflation, trade and investment disruption, political uncertainty, loss of access to the EU single market — McGrade said it was clear that the downsides were huge and not just economic.
“The hit to Britain’s reputation for political stability, which is sort of the core of its soft power, has been in some ways even worse than the economic hit from loss of market access,” he said.