World Cup to provide an extra economic boost to GCC: S&P survey

The logistical challenge of managing one of the world’s largest sporting events would more likely have a positive economic spillover on the rest of the GCC. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 09 November 2022
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World Cup to provide an extra economic boost to GCC: S&P survey

RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council economies stand to benefit from the FIFA 2022 World Cup, as more than 1.2 million fans are expected to attend the event, a survey conducted by S&P Ratings revealed. 

This influx will increase Qatar’s population by 1.5 times, allowing the Arab nation to experience near-term economic gains. 

Moreover, the logistical challenge of managing one of the world’s largest sporting events would more likely have a positive economic spillover on the rest of the GCC. 

According to the report, Dubai would benefit the most outside Qatar because of its geographic proximity, well-developed tourism industry, airline connections and multiple-entry tourist visa provisions. 

However, could this be a blip in the radar of Qatar’s economy? Not really, but the economy is expected to slow down after the international championship, the survey found. 

While oversupply in the hospitality and real estate sectors may moderate the economy’s growth, the impact on banking sector asset quality is unlikely to be felt. 

“The World Cup’s direct impact is expected to be positive, but mostly short-lived, not affecting Qatar’s economic growth outlook in the medium term,” the survey report pointed out. 

Qatar’s recent upgrade in S&P ratings from “AA-” to “AA” is based on its declining debt burden and the expected increase in government revenues following the $30 billion North Field Expansion project. 

According to S&P rating estimates, Qatar's real gross domestic product growth in 2022 will be 4.8 percent, a sharp increase from 2021, partially attributed to increased economic activity associated with the World Cup and the ongoing recovery following the removal of COVID-19-related restrictions. 

Non-oil GDP growth is expected to reach 8 percent in 2022, up from 3 percent in 2021. However, there is a small caveat: the rating agency cited media reports suggesting that office hours could be restricted during the event, thereby dampening non-oil growth. 

The hydrocarbon sector is expected to grow broadly flat, but it accounts for about 65 percent of real GDP, which lowers its overall estimate.  

Qatar’s gas production is also expected to grow significantly from 2025 onward due to some phases of the NFE project going live, increasing QatarEnergy’s liquefied natural gas production capacity from 77 million tons per year to 109 mtpa by 2025 and 126 mtpa by 2027, it added. 

As part of Qatar National Vision 2030 and to prepare for the World Cup, the authorities are implementing a 10-year roadmap of projects for 2015-2024. As a result, the government’s capital expenditures are estimated to average 13 percent of GDP between 2015 and 2022.  

As part of the projects, roads, metro stations, sewage systems, hospitals and schools have been built. Investing in these areas would have occurred regardless of the World Cup, it said. In addition, sporting facilities for World Cup events could cost about 3 percent of GDP in direct expenditures, S&P estimated. 

Qatar is competing with the rest of the GCC to attract foreign investment. Dubai is already a well-established regional business hub, while Saudi Arabia has a much larger population and, therefore, a captive market.  

Qatar aims to attract 6 million tourists annually by 2030 as part of its long-term economic plan. It is estimated that the Arab nation welcomed 0.6 million international passengers in 2021, which increased to 0.7 million in the first half of 2022. However, it is still below the 2.1 million passengers it welcomed in 2019. 


Supply chains reel as carriers halt Gulf routes and impose war risk surcharges in response to Iran-US conflict

Updated 11 min 38 sec ago
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Supply chains reel as carriers halt Gulf routes and impose war risk surcharges in response to Iran-US conflict

RIYADH: Global supply chains were disrupted on March 2 as the US-Iran conflict forced shipping lines and airlines to suspend routes, reroute traffic, and impose emergency surcharges across the Middle East.

As traffic slowed through the Strait of Hormuz and airspace restrictions spread across Gulf hubs, logistics providers halted new container bookings and adjusted operations, driving longer transit times, higher freight costs, and greater uncertainty for cargo owners worldwide.

Ship-tracking data cited by Reuters showed a maritime standstill taking shape near the Hormuz chokepoint, with roughly 150 crude and liquefied natural gas tankers anchored in open waters beyond the strait and additional vessels stationary on both sides, clustered near the coasts of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, as well as the UAE and Qatar.

Industry guidance warned of heightened naval activity, anchorage congestion and potential insurance volatility, even as no formal international suspension of commercial shipping had been declared.

Rising tensions in the Gulf forced operational pullbacks, with Reuters reporting at least three tankers damaged and one seafarer killed, prompting shipowners to reassess their exposure in regional waters.

Container carriers acted to limit risk, with MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co. suspending new bookings for Middle East cargo amid security concerns and network uncertainty.

A.P. Moller–Maersk paused sailings through the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb and suspended vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, attributing the move to the worsening security situation following the start of the US-Israeli attack on Iran.

Rival operators began diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyage times between Asia and Europe and tightening effective capacity. The longer routings are increasing fuel consumption and disrupting equipment repositioning cycles, adding strain to already stretched container availability in key export markets.

Freight costs rose further after Hapag-Lloyd introduced a formal War Risk Surcharge for cargo moving to and from the Upper Gulf, Arabian Gulf and Persian Gulf, citing what it described as the “dynamic situation around the Strait of Hormuz” and associated operational adjustments across its network.

The surcharge, effective March 2 until further notice, is set at $1,500 per twenty-foot equivalent unit for standard containers and $3,500 per unit for reefer containers and special equipment.  

The surcharge will apply to any booking made on or after March 2 that has not yet shipped, as well as cargo already in transit to or from affected Gulf regions. It will be paid by the booking party and excludes shipments regulated by the Federal Maritime Commission or SSE.

France-based shipping group CMA CGM said March 2 it will introduce an “Emergency Conflict Surcharge,” effective immediately, citing escalating security risks in the region. The surcharge will be set at $2,000 per 20-foot dry container, $3,000 per 40-foot dry container, and $4,000 per reefer or special equipment container.  

The measure applies to cargo moving to and from Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait, as well as Yemen, Qatar, Oman, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. It also covers shipments to Jordan, Egypt via the Port of Ain Sokhna, Djibouti, Sudan, and Eritrea, encompassing trade linked to Gulf and Red Sea countries.

On the port side, DP World said operations had resumed at Jebel Ali Port in the UAE following precautionary disruption. The reopening restored activity at the Gulf’s largest transshipment hub, though the broader impact of rerouted vessels, suspended bookings and insurance constraints continues to limit throughput predictability.

Marine insurers added to the strain by issuing notices canceling war-risk cover for vessels operating in Iranian waters and surrounding areas, with changes taking effect on March 5.

The withdrawal of coverage complicates voyage approvals and introduces further pricing volatility for shipowners and charterers considering calls within the region.

Air freight networks have also been affected. Widespread flight cancellations and airspace restrictions across the Middle East disrupted passenger and cargo flows through key hubs, including Dubai.  

FedEx said it had temporarily suspended services in specific Middle East markets, including Bahrain, Israel, and Qatar, as well as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, and halted pickup and delivery services in several Gulf countries due to escalating tensions and airspace closures, affecting time-sensitive shipments across several nations.

Shipping group NORDEN said it has suspended all new business requiring transit through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the escalating security situation in the region, according to a company statement.

Air cargo disruption appears to be significant. Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, a US multinational corporation that focuses on supply chain management and logistics, wrote on X on March 2 that “18 percent of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend,” highlighting the scale of network dislocation as airspace closures and flight cancellations ripple across Gulf hubs.

While the figure has not been independently verified, it underscores the degree to which capacity constraints are tightening for time-sensitive shipments, including pharmaceuticals, electronics and industrial components.

Data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence underscores the scale of disruption to maritime throughput. Daily deadweight tonnage of tankers and gas carriers transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply by March 1, reflecting what industry sources describe as a de facto halt in normal vessel movements.

The combined effect of halted transits, booking suspensions, war-risk pricing measures and air service interruptions is beginning to ripple through global supply chains. Energy exports remain the most immediately exposed given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, but sectors dependent on just-in-time inventory, from manufacturing to retail, are also facing longer lead times and rising logistics costs.

As of March 2, carriers and freight operators were prioritizing crew safety and asset protection while monitoring military developments. The duration of the conflict will determine whether the current disruption remains a short-term operational shock or develops into a prolonged restructuring of trade routes serving the Middle East.